Firmer-ground Europeans deserve upgrade at this year's Breeders' Cup
Day 2, Breeders’ Cup 2020. Waist deep in Euros. No words to waste on cute introductions. One thing: Wet weather predominated this fall in England, Ireland, and France. Racecourses turned very soft and heavy for a couple months. Keeneland will be much different. Bump the firmer-ground horses that recently struggled, knock down those that moved forward under testing conditions.
On to the races.
Turf
Start with Magical, a star of the 2020 Breeders’ Cup. Her merits burst forth – seven-time Group 1 winner, $5.3 million in career earnings, a rousing second to Enable in the 2018 BC Turf. Now, let’s nitpick. Magical’s best distance is 1 1/4 miles. She came closer to beating Enable over that trip than at 1 1/2 miles, and Magical’s two Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe performances lacked luster. Yes, the going last out at Ascot was terrible, but Magical won the 2019 Champion Stakes over a very soft course, beating Addeybb, who handled her last month. Her trip Oct. 17 wasn’t compromising, and one wonders if Magical felt the effect of her mighty effort defeating Ghaiyyath, rated the world’s best horse at the time, in the Irish Champion. At her short price, why not wonder if she’s getting back to her best Saturday?
Tarnawa is the “now” horse. She hinted at top-level form without reaching it at age 3 but has fulfilled her promise this year. Observing her action and the force with which she overpowered two good fillies, Cayenne Pepper in Ireland and Raabihah in France, one might posit that 1 1/2 miles on good turf – the BC Turf, basically – is Tarnawa’s best lick. She finished powerfully to get up last out in the Prix de l’Opera, and if our positing doesn’t miss the mark, that 1 1/4-mile race on heavy turf came under less-than-ideal conditions.
Trainer John Gosden, automatically worthy of respect (also staying at home in England this weekend), sent two 4-year-olds, the filly Mehdaayih and the gelding Lord North. Mehdaayih scarcely has raced this year – a start in June, another in October. The last one hinted at better to come, and the filly can take a step forward, but her established high-water mark gets only a minor placing. Lord North’s ceiling lies higher. He’s uncertain to stay 1 1/2 miles, but he lost a shoe in the Juddmonte International and showed incredible acceleration blowing out a solid field in the Prince of Wales’s. Ignore him at your peril.
The German filly Donjah has faced one truly elite horse, Ghaiyyath, and he beat her 14 lengths last fall.
Finally, Magical’s stablemate Mogul is interesting but drew poorly in post 10. Mogul was supposed to be a major Derby horse this year, and he did run in the Derby, just not consequentially. Mogul’s spring preparation went awry, and he raced heavier than fighting weight in June and July. It looked like he’d begun to come right in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood, a no-excuse step back in the Great Voltigeur followed. Finally, in the Grand Prix de Paris, Mogul ran a complete race, albeit with a dream trip, coming up the rail and getting through all the gaps while never losing an iota of momentum. That said, In Swoop, the runner-up, is a very good colt who returned to finish second in the Arc. Trainer Aidan O’Brien skipped the Arc with Mogul in favor of the BC Turf – so here we are.
Mile
There is a large and capable phalanx of Euro milers in this field. Tackle them in post-position order.
Circus Maximus can be forgiven his heavy-going flop in the QE II last out at Ascot, but can he so easily be forgiven his decisive defeats in the Moulin and the Marois? Probably not. Circus Maximus went pretty hard leading the Moulin, but the chasing horse, Persian King, won decisively. The fight he showed coming back to win the Queen Anne has disappeared since that race.
Kameko has to be considered. His connections were obligated to try longer races, the Derby and the Juddmonte International, and Kameko tried, but one mile is his game. This was not a vintage year for the 2000 Guineas, though the form through third-place Pinatubo worked out well, but credit to Kameko for gutting out the win. His next one-mile race, the Sussex, saw Kameko suffer a terribly unlucky trip, totally locked in along the fence, blocked when he finally got off the rail. He was second best behind a very good horse that day. Back to one mile, he comfortably handled a left-handed course at York in September. Kameko got credit for beating Benbatl there, but 2020 Benbatl is far less than 2019 Benbatl. Kameko is a handy, athletic colt who should adapt to the unfamiliar conditions.
Lope Y Fernandez has thrown in performances strongly suggesting he could contend at a long price if things break his way and he enjoys racing around turns – which he might. It’s been nothing but straight-course races all year for Lope Y Fernandez, and a short stretch (by overseas standards) could play to the powerful but short burst he possesses. That burst brought him from last to first in the Irish 2000 Guineas, where he was run down late, and propelled him to a late lead in the Maurice de Gheest. Ignore his last two runs in true sprints over soft ground – he’ll be better Saturday.
Siskin was the horse who overwhelmed Lope Y Fernandez to win the Irish 2000 Guineas, his signature win on the season. He was very brave that day, making room where none existed to escape a terrible spot and win impressively. But, so far, he has failed to progress much from that. His Sussex third was solid, but he did have a clean outside run, and his most recent race in France was ruined when Siskin – for the second time in his career – lost his composure at the gate. That is a point of concern as he travels far from home the for first time.
Seven-year-old Safe Voyage has a claim. A turning, short-stretch mile appears to suit his skill set perfectly. He took command in a paceless City of York and won well, but probably is most comfortable tracking pacesetters. He has more than sufficient familiarity running turns and surely wasn’t in love with the heavy ground last out at Longchamp.
One Master, unfortunately, tied up during training at Keeneland this week after shipping from England and was scratched Thursday from the Mile.
Filly and Mare Turf
At 1 3/16 miles and given this race’s history – the Filly and Mare Turf has been run at a distance as long as 1 3/8 miles – gravitate toward the mile and nine-furlong types over horses who seem to excel at 1 1/4 miles and beyond. So, focus on Peaceful and Terebellum.
Both look capable, and Peaceful is downright dangerous. Her full sister Easter raced in the 2015 BC Mile at Keeneland, finishing eighth in a race where she was overmatched and that fell short of her preferred distance. A troubled second in the Filly and Mare Turf that year was 3-year-old filly Legatissimo, a Coolmore filly with Group 1-winning form over one mile, just like Peaceful.
Peaceful went to the lead and won very well debuting this year in the Irish 2000 Guineas. This was no case of being saved by the wire – she hit the line strong, ready for more at the finish. On to the Prix de Diane, the French Oaks over 1 5/16 miles, where Peaceful got a strange trip. She broke alertly and wanted to race near the front, and in the end, the two pacesetters, Fancy Blue and Alpine Star, would finish one-two. But for some reason, Peaceful’s jockey wrangled her back into to the middle of the pack. She was shuffled out of position at a key moment, then lacked room when trying to unleash her finishing kick, which wound up falling just short of the top two while pushing her past fourth-place Raabihah, a very good filly.
The tactics also missed the mark back in Ireland for the Sept. 12 Matron Stakes. A pacemaker for Peaceful and her Aidan O’Brien-trained stablemates took a large lead and went very hard before even coming into Leopardstown’s long homestretch, dragging pace-tracking Peaceful prematurely into the heat of battle. That left Peaceful vulnerable to a late run, which was delivered by victorious Champers Elysees, who had raced at the tail of the field. Throw out Peaceful’s last start, which came on heavy ground; she hated it and her jockey took care of her when it was clear Peaceful was done. She can take a good position Saturday under Ryan Moore and win this thing.
Terebellum is a year older than Peaceful and has less upside. She exits the same race as Peaceful, the Sun Chariot, and while she coped with the difficult conditions better than Peaceful, she didn’t appear to enjoy them. Her big race this year came in the Queen Anne, which she had won a half-furlong out, only to be tagged at the wire by Circus Maximus, whom she’d already overtaken. Terebellum never had led before she tried to make all the running in the Falmouth Stakes and might have gotten a little lost out in front. Her 1 1/4-mile performances say she’ll be fine at this distance.
Audarya has made stunning strides during 2020, going from a minor listed-stakes player to Group 1 winner. She got a great trip last out in the Prix de l’Opera, sitting in the pocket and coming up the inside, but 10 furlongs over heavy going probably sapped her stamina. She beat a considerably lesser bunch in her 47-1 Prix Romanet upset and seems better suited toward grinding away over softer ground and through a gentle-turning track than the circumstances she faces Saturday.
Cayenne Pepper is an open book. She needs 1 1/2 miles for her best, has a sustained move that lacks fast-twitch acceleration, and even at 1 1/2 miles has gotten out-quicked to the finish. She’s drawn poorly and, admirable as she has been, seems up against it.
Turf Sprint
Someday, there will be a crack European sprinter with so much ability and wherewithal that changing from the straight-course sprints overseas to a turning race in America won’t pose a problem. So far, we have not seen that horse. Glass Slippers is a nice filly, for sure, one of the better five-furlong horses in Europe, and back in the day she actually ran around tight turns at Chester in England. Maybe she’ll cope with the turn at Keeneland fine, and as was the case last year her form has come around as the weather has cooled. Battaash, who cooked her twice earlier this season, was the horse folks wanted to see test his talents on these shores, but his connections wanted no part of the Turf Sprint. Glass Slippers breaks decently, not great, and has a stalking style in her straight-course races. The inside draw figures to lead to her getting buried behind rivals and probably she isn’t quite good enough to emerge from that mess.
Equilateral, on the also-eligible list, rates a notch below Glass Slippers.
Dirt Mile/Sprint
Japan has three graded stakes races in the dirt-sprint category, showing what a tiny division that is in the jurisdiction, and Jasper Prince hasn’t raced in any of them. Maybe if a truly elite dirt sprinter came to this race from Japan, the horse would have to be taken somewhat seriously in the Sprint, even given the marginal state of the division within the Japanese racing structure. This is not that horse.
Pingxiang, also-eligible in the Dirt Mile, has even weaker credentials – and seemingly no chance whatsoever.