Firing Line trying to buck history in Preakness

BALTIMORE – He ran so big in the Kentucky Derby that you just can’t help but think that with a little more luck or a little more oomph, the runner-up might well have won the Derby – and he surely rates an excellent chance in the Preakness on the merits of that huge effort.

Be careful in your thinking.

Since Bally Ache won the 1960 Preakness after finishing second in the Derby, only two Derby runners-up have returned to win the Preakness: Summer Squall in 1990 and Prairie Bayou in 1993. Fifteen of the 54 Derby runners-up during that span were not in the starting gate two weeks later at Pimlico, but the collective record of the 39 who started is clearly subpar.

This, of course, is not to cast aspersions at Firing Line, who was beaten just a length when second to American Pharoah in the May 2 Derby at Churchill Downs, nor to downgrade his chances as the second or third wagering choice when the 140th Preakness is run Saturday at Pimlico.

It’s just that as a group, Derby runners-up clearly have not performed to expectations, and Firing Line will be trying to buck history. Eleven of those 39 Derby runners-up have been the favorite in the Preakness, and many more have been the second or third choice.

Elliott Walden trained back-to-back Derby runners-up who wound up as the wagering favorite but were defeated again by the Derby winner in the Preakness – Victory Gallop in 1998 (by Real Quiet) and Menifee in 1999 (by Charismatic).

“Both times, I felt like we were in a situation where we had the horse to beat,” said Walden. “I was surprised when they both lost, actually. After it all sinks in, you’re kind of like, ‘Well, maybe the best horse did win the Derby.’ ”

In that same 54-year time frame, Derby winners have crossed the finish line first in the Preakness a whopping 21 times, ranging from Carry Back in 1961 to California Chrome in 2014. Even the third-place finishers in the Derby have a better record than the runners-up, as they’ve won the Preakness three times from 13 starts in the last 20 years (Timber Country, Afleet Alex, Curlin).

A recent tendency among the connections of Derby runners-up has been to pass the Preakness – four of the last five, and nine of the last 15, have skipped it. The only Derby runner-up since 2010 to run back in the Preakness was Bodemeister, the 17-10 favorite when finishing second again to I’ll Have Another in 2012.

Treating the 2015 Preakness, however, as a singular event, these negative trends certainly don’t have to apply to Firing Line, who ran a terrific race in the Derby, confirming the good form he held all winter in his battles at Santa Anita with Dortmund and his romping victory in the Sunland Derby. Ridden by Gary Stevens, the colt was prominent throughout in the Kentucky Derby before giving way grudgingly down the stretch.

Kept at Churchill to regroup and train toward the Preakness, Firing Line has held good flesh and struck a good appearance during this interim period. Trainer Simon Callaghan was scheduled to arrive Tuesday in Maryland from California and be on hand to greet his stable star Wednesday following the equine charter flight from Kentucky.

“It’s interesting,” Callaghan said of the statistical frustration of Derby runners-up in the Preakness, adding: “I don’t think it really matters.”

Callaghan, in essence, said he can only do what he can do. Firing Line, he said, “seems to have come out of it very good. He’s eating and keeping his weight. He’s got good energy. The signs are positive.”

– additional reporting by Steve Andersen