Finest City out to prove last start not a fluke
ARCADIA, Calif. – The idea that track bias was largely responsible for the chaotic result of a Grade 2 filly-and-mare sprint last month will be reexamined Thursday at Santa Anita.
Finest City, who benefitted from an apparent speed bias in finishing second in the Santa Monica Stakes, drops Thursday into a second-level optional claimer. If her Santa Monica effort on Jan. 23 is taken at face value, Finest City might be tough to beat Thursday.
However, the speed-friendly surface undoubtedly flattered Finest City’s up-front style. The bias partly explains how 64-1 outsider Lost Bus and longshot Finest City finished one-two in the Santa Monica. A skeptic will downgrade the race.
The bias dilemma is not the only riddle that applies to the feature Thursday. The other is current condition and its relevance to the best horse in the field.
Enchanting Lady is a two-time stakes winner with the highest speed figures. However, she has not started in seven months. Her works look solid. But her history suggests improvement next time in the second start back.
Finest City and Enchanting Lady are key entrants in race 6, a 6 1/2-furlong optional claimer for older fillies and mares. Others entered are Stealth Drone, Codacious, Jolene, Pica, and Distinta.
KEY CONTENDERS
Enchanting Lady, by Tale of the Cat
Last 3 Beyers: 82-98-56
◗ Bob Baffert trains Enchanting Lady, who has not started since finishing second in the Grade 3 Victory Ride Stakes on July 4 at Belmont Park.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: Over the past five years, Baffert’s win rate is 23 percent with layoff sprinters off six months or more (35 for 149). A filtered stat that applies Thursday – Baffert is 7 for 14 with female comeback sprinters who are favored under Martin Garcia.
◗ Enchanting Lady is eligible to the second-level allowance due to the clause “or have never won three races.” Enchanting Lady was a 2-year-old maiden when she won the Landaluce Stakes in 2014; she won the Santa Paula Stakes in 2015. She has won 2 of 7 career starts.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 4 Enchanting Lady. Trainer Bob Baffert is 20-3-4-5 with a $0.58 ROI over the past year in dirt sprints following a layoff of 180 days or more. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
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Finest City, by City Zip
Last 3 Beyers: 95-67-77
◗ Ian Kruljac trains Finest City, a 2-for-7 filly who will be ridden by apprentice David Lopez.
◗ The last-out Beyer Speed Figure by Finest City is 13 points higher than the last-out speed figure of any rival.
Codacious, by Desert Code
Last 3 Beyers: 73-87-78
◗ Her best races are when she rallies from behind. Last out, she misfired when she set the pace in a turf sprint.
◗ Cliff Sise trains the 3-for-11 California-bred. Edwin Maldonado will ride.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 3 Codacious. Trainer Cliff Sise is 12-4-1-1 with a $3.70 ROI over the past five years going turf to dirt. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan