Filly exiting win at Saratoga longshot in strong turf allowance

Which of these facts sounds harder to believe? There’s a filly running at Mountaineer Racetrack on Monday night who won her last start in August at Saratoga. That same horse, who is perfect in two outings this season, is no better than 8-1 on the track’s morning line.

Despite her victory in a $50,000 claiming sprint on turf last time out at Saratoga, Ecstatic Miss isn’t among the top three program among an exceptionally strong group of fillies and mares in Monday’s no-conditions, $31,000 allowance feature. The race, which goes at 7:22 p.m. Eastern, is scheduled for 7 1/2 furlongs on turf.

The 10-horse field includes Maid On a Mission, who was good enough to finish third in the Grade 3 Mint Julep at Churchill Downs in early June; Bodacious Barb, who narrowly missed in a three-horse photo for win in the $75,000 Firecracker three months ago; Thetaloveandmine, claimed out of a five-length win for $40,000 at Presque Isle Downs; and the 8-year-old Miracle in May, who boasts a 10-for-17 record on Mountaineer’s turf.

If the race were being run on a synthetic surface, Maid On a Mission or Thetaloveandmine would be the strongest contenders. They are a combined 7 for 14 on synthetics, but only 1 for 8 on grass.

Maid On a Mission cuts back in distance after holding the lead or being within a head of the leader, at the stretch call in longer races in each of her last two starts.

Thetaloveandmine, who will be making her turf debut, will be going longer after posting a career-best 85 Beyer Speed Figure on Presque Isle’s Tapeta on Sept. 1.

Bodacious Barb, 1 for 7 on turf compared with 3 for 5 on synthetic, will be dangerous if she can regain the form that enabled her to miss by a neck in the Firecracker on July 2 at Mountaineer. She was a dull sixth on Tapeta in her only subsequent start.

Race 2

KEY CONTENDERS

Maid On a Mission (Last 3 Beyers: 79-81-80)

Two of her three wins this year came on Polytrack at Turfway Park, but she did score a front-running victory in a second-level optional $62,500 claimer on turf in mid-May and followed up with her third place finish in the Grade 3 Mint Julep. The last time she ran on Mountaineer’s turf, she was sixth at 2-1 in August 2012.

Bodacious Barb (Last 3 Beyers: 68-88-69)

The last time she switched from a sprint on Tapeta to a longer race on turf Bodacious Barb was a close second in a third-level allowance at Keeneland last fall. She won a fourth-level optional $75,000 claimer at Tampa Bay in March.

Ecstatic Miss (Last 3 Beyers: 80-57-60)

In her only two starts this year, she won a six-furlong sprint at Finger Lakes and pulled off an 18-1 upset in a turf sprint at Saratoga. That race came back live. Of the four horses who have since run back, two finished second and the other two were third.

Miracle in May (Last 3 Beyers: 65065-68)

Queen of the local turf was the beaten favorite in each of her last two starts and her Beyers have dropped noticeably since her last win in mid-June