Favorites in Wednesday allowance look a bit shaky
Tiger Moth and Paris Bikini, an uncoupled entry from the powerhouse stable of Todd Pletcher, will be the top two betting choices in Wednesday’s $41,000 allowance feature at Gulfstream Park. But it will be difficult for bettors to accept a short price on either one.
Tiger Moth has finished second four straight times, all at odds between 1-2 and 2-1. Paris Bikini is winless in six starts since scoring in her career debut in September 2014 and will be stretching out beyond 6 1/2 furlongs for the first time.
They are among nine in Wednesday’s ninth race, a first-level allowance for fillies and mares at one mile. Eight in the field are 3-year-olds.
Tiger Moth and Paris Bikini both look vulnerable, but it’s difficult to make a case for an alternative.
Garden Princess won her maiden going a mile at Gulfstream in March, earning an 82 Beyer Speed Figure, which is one point higher than par for Wednesday’s class level. But she hasn’t recorded a Beyer higher than 61 in five subsequent starts.
Aintketchnme won her dirt debut going two turns at Delaware Park and was third in her first try against winners. But the winner of that allowance race returned with a dull 38 Beyer in a $15,000 claimer at Parx Racing.
The pick is Red Neck Song, who posted a career-best 78 Beyer in July at Ellis Park the only time she raced at a mile on dirt. Red Neck Song finished fifth in a Keeneland allowance sprint in her last start. The filly who finished fourth in that race, 1 1/4 lengths ahead of Red Neck Song, came back to win a first-level allowance at Keeneland with a 77 Beyer.
Race 9
KEY CONTENDERS
Tiger Moth (Last 3 Beyers: 77-82-83)
◗ Her Beyers look good in this field.
◗ She was a distant second two starts ago to Carrumba, who was narrowly beaten in the Grade 3 Comely. But she keeps settling for second-place checks at short odds, so she’s hard to trust.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 1 Tiger Moth. Trainer Todd Pletcher is 24-9-3-4 with a $2.34 ROI over the past year in dirt routes at Gulfstream Park following a layoff of 45 days or more. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
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Paris Bikini (Last 3 Beyers: 63-50-77)
◗ She finished second by a nose at Gulfstream Park West a month ago in her first race in Florida, but that race came back with a weak 63 Beyer.
◗ Will the distance switch help her? Tough to take a short price to find out.
DRF FORMULATOR FACT: No. 4 Paris Bikini. Trainer Todd Pletcher is 11-6-3-1 with a $6.76 ROI over the past five years going sprint to route on dirt at Gulfstream Park in the second start following a layoff. Click for more details. – Mike Hogan
Red Neck Song (Last 3 Beyers: 64-70-72)
◗ Makes her first start for trainer Marcus Vitali, who shows a 3-for-12 record (25 percent) the first time following a trainer switch with horses returning from a break of 61-180 days.
Garden Princess (Last 3 Beyers: 59-61-35)
◗ Her two best races came going a mile at Gulfstream, but she was a distant third as the 6-5 favorite when she returned here in September.