Favorites looking strong in dirt races

ARCADIA, Calif. – Friday at Santa Anita might be a good day for chalk. Except for an entry-level allowance that is the featured seventh race, favorites appear formidable in every dirt race.

The program begins with the most probable winner on the card. Purified will be heavily backed in the $50,000 maiden-claiming sprint following in-the-money finishes in all four of his starts. Bob Baffert trains the 4-year-old ridgling, whose speed figures tower over his rivals.

A win by Purified would end a frustrating streak for Baffert and jockey Juan Hernandez. Since mid-December, they have lost seven consecutive maiden races with favorites – six seconds and a third. It’s statistical mumbo-jumbo. Purified stands out over likely second choice Famous Star.

A reliable favorite also runs in race 2, a California-bred allowance dirt mile. Talklessworkmore earned a career-high figure last out finishing second in a similar race – an 85 Beyer Speed Figure while finishing more than four lengths clear of third. Shelbe Ruis trains the gelding, whose rider, Flavien Prat, has reemerged as the circuit’s hottest jockey.

Prat entered the week having won with 9 of 31 the past month, after starting the meet 8 for 106. Prat’s win rate since early February, 29 percent, is the highest during the period. Prat has risen to third in the standings behind Hernandez (42) and Frankie Dettori (18). The main race-2 rival for Talklessworkmore is turf-to-dirt entrant So I’m Told.

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Bella Renella has not started since April, but when she returns in a $10,000 claiming sprint that is race 3, trainer Doug O’Neill will employ the “no-claim” wavier. Horses returning from a 180-day layoff in California can be entered in a claiming race ineligible to be claimed if they race at a claim level equal or higher than their most recent start. It is an optimistic move when a horse’s owner and trainer do not want the horse to be claimed first start back. Bella Renella won three straight claiming sprints last winter at Santa Anita.

O’Neill has won with four of his last six sprinters returning from layoffs of six months or more. The main rival for Bella Renella is Rain Diva.

The remaining dirt races Friday, races 5 and 7, are more competitive. In race 5, Trojan Way moves up to nonwinners-of-three claiming following her win in nonwinners-of-two claiming route. She will have to put away stretch-out sprinter Bonita Leona.

Race 7, an entry-level allowance at a mile on dirt, is a scramble even with only five entrants. Despite having lost eight straight at the level, Street Ruckus will be well-backed based on six consecutive in-the-money finishes.

Mobou returns to dirt after a narrow California-bred turf win; he has won on dirt. Bletchley Park could be the pace of the race; he defeated race-1 favorite Purified last out. Show Time and Finneus also are entered.

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