Favorites have obstacles to overcome in Santa Ysabel Stakes
ARCADIA, Calif. – The top 3-year-old fillies in California face significant hurdles Sunday when they race 1 1/16 miles in the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel Stakes at Santa Anita.
Beyond disrupted training schedules caused by a weeklong series of rainstorms, three Santa Ysabel principals – Faiza, And Tell Me Nolies, and Justique – are potentially compromised by handicapping obstacles that include speed, current condition, and distance.
Faiza, an unbeaten Grade 1 winner, is likely to start favored having never earned a notable figure. Her career-high Beyer Speed Figure is 77. And Tell Me Nolies emerged as the top juvenile filly in California last year, winning a Grade 1 and Grade 2. But she has not started in four months. Justique is an exceptional closing sprinter, 2 for 2 at one turn. However, both her routes were ordinary thirds.
Six entered the Santa Ysabel, which is race 3 on Sunday. The stakes was postponed from Feb. 25 when Santa Anita canceled racing for a week. Others in the Santa Ysabel are Pride of the Nile, runner-up twice to Faiza; sprint-to-route allowance filly Blessed Touch; and Spanning the Globe, who is eligible to a starter allowance and the longest shot in the field.
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The $100,000 Santa Ysabel leads to the Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks, moved from April 1 to the Santa Anita Derby card on April 8. The Santa Anita Oaks is a prep for the Kentucky Oaks, a Churchill Downs race Faiza was not nominated to, nor could she run in for trainer Bob Baffert.
Faiza drew post 5 on Sunday, outside her only pace rival, and should get a favorable trip setting or pressing the pace. But betting on Faiza requires ignoring ordinary figures. After a debut sprint win, she won the Grade 1 Starlet at Los Alamitos by a head and the Grade 3 Las Virgenes at Santa Anita by a half-length. Heavily favored in both, she earned back-to-back 77 Beyers.
Baffert asked jockeys Flavien Prat and Ramon Vazquez the same question after each win: Why was the margin so close?
“The riders all say the same thing: There’s more there,” Baffert said. “She just gives them enough. They say there was more there, they weren’t going to beat her. She just sort of idles.”
Prat rides Faiza on Sunday; Vazquez rides 2022 star juvenile And Tell Me Nolies. Peter Miller trains And Tell Me Nolies, winner of the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante and Grade 2 Chandelier Stakes at Santa Anita. She finished eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.
Miller expects that And Tell Me Nolies needs a race.
“We got a little behind schedule with the weather,” he said. “I don’t think she’s 100 percent fit, but I think she’s ready to run. Our goal is the Kentucky Oaks.”
As expected, And Tell Me Nolies matured in the four months since she last raced.
“She’s grown a little bit, filled out a little bit, and she seems to have mellowed a little bit,” Miller said. “I think she’ll run well. I just think she’s probably a couple works short.”
At least her most recent work was exactly that – recent. Miller worked And Tell Me Nolies on Feb. 28 at San Luis Rey Downs, five furlongs over a good track in 1:01.20, tied for the fastest work at the distance. The most recent work by her Santa Anita rivals was Feb. 23.
As for Justique, trainer John Shirreffs does not accept the idea she is a late-running sprinter who is dubious over a route of ground.
“For me, [distance] is not a question,” Shirreffs said. “First of all, her breeding. Her breeding begs for more distance. It just begs for it.”
Sired by Justify, Justique is a sibling to Grade 1 Hollywood Derby winner Mo Town.
Secondly, Shirreffs believes extenuating circumstances compromised Justique in both previous routes.
“Every time she’s gone around two turns, she’s had some little thing that hasn’t worked out for her,” he said.
Both times Justique tried two turns, last fall and this winter, she had missed time between starts due to sickness.
“She’s never come into a [route] race yet 100 percent,” Shirreffs said.
Regrettably, Justique faces challenging conditions again Sunday, with the Santa Ysabel postponed by a week and training interrupted by track closures. Victor Espinoza rides Justique.
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