Favorites have a chance to continue trend on Friday card

ARCADIA, Calif. – Friday will be quiet at Santa Anita, compared to the day before and day after. Thursday included two graded stakes on turf; Saturday, the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby is one of five scheduled stakes.

Friday’s nine-race card includes four maiden races, three of which have claiming provisions. Based on the last three months, bettors may have a general idea of what to expect Friday. Or, not.

Santa Anita has been unusually predictable this season, particularly on dirt. Through March, favorites won 51 percent of dirt races (96 of 188). Turf favorites also delivered at an above-average clip – 40 percent (76 of 189). The stats are worth considering while fashioning a betting plan for Friday.

Race 1 is a turf route for maiden fillies and mares in which two-start maiden Well Funded looks tough to beat. Runner-up in both starts, including a turf mile last out, the 4-year-old meets a field of career maidens. But the likely favorite faces challenges.

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In her turf-route runner-up, Well Funded had things her own way. She set an easy pace, and got worn down by the last-to-first winner. The pace scenario Friday might not be as soft if Kelly’s Out breaks better than her United States debut, and if Irish Rose produces speed stretching from a sprint to a route.

Secondly, the predictability of turf favorites has not applied to turf miles for older maidens. Favorites are just 1 for 11 in the category. Well Funded, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Juan Hernandez, nonetheless looks formidable. She galloped out strongly after the wire in her route. Another key rival Friday would be the Mick Ruis-trained Bolt’s Broad.

Race 2 seems predictable; favorites at 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt are 15 for 26. Soul of Midnight can add to the total dropping to $16,000 claiming non-winners of three, with a pace and speed-figure advantage. Victor Espinoza rides the front-runner for trainer Librado Barocio, whose five-year record with favorites is 15 for 30 according to the Daily Racing Form Formulator.

Race 3 is a non-winners-of-two starter/optional-claiming race at 6 1/2 furlongs on turf in which Pioneer Prince will be well backed. He was a first-time gelding last month when he scored a decisive maiden-claiming win over the same course and distance. His main rival is dropper Dr. Soulfire, who drops in class and is entered for the $50,000 optional-claiming tag.

Race 4, a restricted optional-claiming maiden sprint, includes Feel the Magic, who received an 88 Beyer Speed Figure last out, finishing second to 98 Beyer winner Vlahos. Feel the Magic will test the form of Vlahos, who reportedly is headed to the Pat Day Mile at Churchill Downs on the Kentucky Derby undercard. Feel the Magic is the second horse to run back from the Vlahos maiden win; the other was next-out winner Promissio.

Race 6 is a maiden-claiming dirt sprint in which Mongolian Frost is a live longshot following a better-than-looked third-place debut at Los Alamitos. Race 9 is a maiden-claiming turf sprint; second-time starter Matina may post an upset while adding blinkers.

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