Favorites face legitimate upset challengers

ARCADIA, Calif. – Bet the favorite, or gamble on a longshot? The question applies in multiple turf races Friday at Santa Anita, where a four-day racing week extends through Presidents Day.

The seven-race Friday card includes four turf races with a chalk-versus-underdog dilemma. Maiden routes with conspicuous favorites are races 1 and 7, the first and last, also known as the lid-lifter and nightcap. Turf sprints include race 3, a filly-mare claiming sprint with an apparently dominant favorite. Race 5 is a wide-open California-bred allowance turf sprint. Friday is for gambling.

Race 1 probable favorite Point and Shoot nearly won a similar California-bred maiden turf mile last out. She was positioned next-to-last early, rallied four wide on the far turn, ran the fastest final quarter-mile in the field (24.50 seconds), and finished second by a head. A similar effort by the late-runner Friday should be enough. The turf rails are at the outermost 30-foot setting. No big deal.

The race 1 longshot is Cee Minus. She finished seventh last out, nearly four lengths behind Point and Shoot. Cee Minus ran better than it looks. She was four wide virtually the entire route race, which was her first start in California. She moves from an outside post to an inside post Friday and can improve with a ground-saving trip. Point and Shoot should win. Cee Minus could upset.

Race 3 favorite Gallovie is a 7-year-old mare whose three most recent Santa Anita turf sprints produced two wins and a second. She runs for a $32,000 tag Friday and has a pressing style in a race light on speed. One could argue Gallovie is the most probable winner on the card.

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The race 3 longshot is Mongolian Panther, unplaced in both previous turf starts. She has improved since, adds blinkers, and should be forwardly placed. The past five years, trainer Librado Boracio has quietly emerged as a terrific longshot trainer, winning at a 13 percent clip while producing a flat-bet profit ($2.26 ROI). Gallovie should win. Mongolian Panther could upset.

Race 5 comeback closer Minister Shane gets an ideal pace scenario racing six furlongs on turf in the California-bred allowance. The field is loaded with speed. Six of the eight in the main body employ up-front styles. Minister Shane has not raced since June, but his maiden win last year was first start back from a similar layoff. Is there a longshot in the field? Pick a number.

Race 7 likely favorite Zio Jo missed by a neck last out in a starter allowance turf mile. He drops Friday into a $50,000-$62,500 maiden-claiming turf mile with the top figures and a reliable trainer stat. According to DRF Formulator, Doug O’Neill is 6 for 9 with maiden turf-route favorites the past year.

A pair of race 7 upset candidates are trained by George Papaprodromou. Russells Hustle returns to turf as a first-time gelding and may actually be among the choices. His stablemate could slip through the cracks.

Storm the Night is first-time route, first-time claiming, blinkers off, with speed to set or press the pace. Zio Jo should win. Storm the Night merits longshot consideration.

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