Favored Prom Queen needs bounce-back effort in Indiana Oaks

Brad Cox trains Prom Queen, and Prom Queen will go to post favored Saturday at Horseshoe Indianapolis in the Grade 3, $200,000 Indiana Oaks. That might not be a good thing.

While Cox won this race in 2020 with 7-10 favorite Shedaresthedevil, his last two Indiana Oaks favorites have not fared as well. Impel at 3-10 in 2024 finished a flat third. Interstatedaydream, the same price in 2022, crossed the wire first but was disqualified to seventh.

This much is certain, Prom Queen, provided she finishes, will do better than seventh. Only six fillies were entered in the 1 1/16-mile Oaks, with Mizumi likely to defect in favor of the Iowa Oaks – unless trainer Bob Baffert changes his mind.

Prom Queen, Irad Ortiz Jr. to ride, faces a short field while on a steep class drop. Two back she finished a good fifth in the Kentucky Oaks. In her last out on June 6 she checked in a tame fourth of five in the Grade 1 Acorn at Saratoga, a frankly disappointing showing, Cox conceded.

“She’s trained well since the Acorn, had two good works at Saratoga. We found no reason not to press on. Heard this race was coming up with a shorter field and decided to ship her over,” Cox said.

Prom Queen finished a fine second debuting in January at Gulfstream Park. She crushed maidens there in her second start and third out proved much the best at 3-1 in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. She dropped much too far behind a moderate pace in the Kentucky Oaks before finishing fastest but never got involved in the Acorn.

Cox hopes a comfortable win over lesser foes will send Prom Queen back to Grade 1 competition this summer, but bettors might do worse than taking at least a mildly skeptical approach.

Cox has a second runner, Nahla, who needed three starts to win for the first time and did so in an Indiana maiden race carded for grass and rained onto dirt.

Star Actress holds somewhat more appeal but has yet to run an actually fast race. Connections tried her on turf to no great effect last out after a modest fifth in a Churchill Downs dirt-route allowance, a race in which Star Actress should have been more competitive following a wide-trip third in the Grade 1 Ashland.

Maximum Offer beat zero rivals after contesting the Acorn pace and probably is not of Grade 1 quality, but she does have a chance to sneak away on a clear early lead and back down the pace. The Horseshoe Indianapolis racing surface strongly favored inside speed horses on the Indiana Derby card last year.

Maximum Offer defeated Betty’s Pearl when they met May 1 at Churchill in a first-level allowance, but considering pace dynamics and the very poor trip through which she suffered, Betty’s Pearl ran the better race while starting in blinkers for the first time.

Betty’s Pearl got a far better trip and much more favorable setup cutting back to a one-turn mile May 30, and she made the most of it, winning off by 6 1/2 lengths after hitting the front at the three-sixteenths marker. If Betty’s Pearl transfers that form to a new racing surface and around a second turn, it might lead to another beaten Cox-trained favorite in the Indiana Oaks.