Fast pace not assured despite speed in Preakness field
BALTIMORE – Predicting the pace of the Kentucky Derby this year was an exercise in uncertainty. Some forecasters got the slow pace right, but many thought the fractions laid down by the early leaders would be several lengths faster. In the end, a lack of surefire, need-the-lead-type horses combined with instances of bad luck and passive tactics to produce the second-slowest Derby half-mile split, 47.37 seconds, in 16 years.
The same lack of pace clarity has followed the Triple Crown trail to the Preakness at Pimlico. Once again, the majority of analysts are forecasting taxing fractions, but once again, a hot pace isn’t assured.
The connections of only one horse, Social Inclusion, have made it clear that they want the early lead, and Social Inclusion, who set a sub-45-second pace in winning a seven-furlong race in his career debut, has the speed to get it. Besides him, though, the connections of other horses with speed could wind up concentrating as much on not going too fast as getting onto the Preakness engine.
General a Rod has post 2 but doesn’t look quick enough to make the front. California Chrome has post 3, and though he has led or pressed in his last four starts, his connections have said they expect to see the Derby winner in the second flight Saturday.
Ring Weekend led all the way in winning the Tampa Bay Derby, and trainer Graham Motion said last week that he regretted trying to take the horse back in the Calder Derby. Ring Weekend figures to show his speed, but in five starts before Tampa, he never had been the early leader.
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Bayern has led or pressed the pace in his four starts, two around one turn, but trainer Bob Baffert is racing Bayern with blinkers removed Saturday and has talked about wanting him to stalk the leaders. Pablo Del Monte led in the Blue Grass Stakes last month and was quick enough to win a 2-year-old race over 4 1/2 furlongs, but he’s no speed-crazy front-runner, and if jockey Jeffrey Sanchez can tuck into a pressing position just outside of Social Inclusion, he surely wouldn’t mind sitting there through a moderate tempo.
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Even if, as in the Derby, the potential speed fails to materialize, this Preakness pace almost has to be faster than last year’s, when Oxbow walked a half-mile in 48.60 seconds, the slowest split since Secretariat’s Preakness of 1973, the timing of which was disputed. The half-mile pace in 2012, about 47.60 seconds, also was slow, as the last seven opening Preakness half-miles had been 46s or 45s. But even in the faster-paced recent years, closers haven’t taken advantage. Not since a 45.60-second half-mile in 2007 set up Curlin’s powerhouse winning move has a closer finished first here – something to keep in mind for the Kid Cruz fans hoping for a pace meltdown Saturday.