Fast fractions in Eight Belles could set up Proud Emma

Trainers Steve Asmussen and Brad Cox have won the last two editions of the Eight Belles Stakes, and they each have a fast horse for this year’s renewal of the Grade 2, $250,000 race for 3-year-old fillies.

Break Even, trained by Cox, and Lyrical Lady, Asmussen’s entrant, look capable of winning the seven-furlong Eight Belles. They also could engage in a pace battle and set the race up for one of their rivals.

Nine were entered in the Eight Belles with Mother Mother, drawn widest for trainer Bob Baffert, installed as the 3-1 morning-line favorite. That’s a questionable price, and in fact the entire line for this race invites skepticism. Cox’s filly Break Even seems the most likely favorite. The line also lists Lyrical Lady at 8-1, which seems much too high, and rail-drawn Take Charge Angel at 5-1, which feels too low.

The Eight Belles, race 5, is the first stakes Friday at Churchill, with a scheduled post time of 12:35 p.m. Eastern.

KEY CONTENDERS

Proud Emma, by Include
Last 3 Beyers: 77-77-68

◗ The pick to win, especially over a wet track, and should offer fair value.

◗ Threw a dud going six furlongs in her career debut, one of only two sprint starts she’s made, but in the other one, going seven furlongs in a first-level allowance March 2 at Santa Anita, Proud Emma excelled. She not only rallied powerfully from 11 lengths off a strong pace – the same sort of setup she could get Friday – she won in hand and eased up at the finish.

“That was a pretty awesome performance,” said trainer Peter Miller. “If she runs back to that, she should be tough.”

Break Even, by Country Day
Last 3 Beyers: 94-84-78

◗ No one even has tested her in three starts, wins by 5, 4 1/4, and 4 1/2 lengths. She’s led or sat just off the early pace each time and finished solidly.

◗ In her second race, jockey Shaun Bridgmohan appeared to try and rate Break Even, but she pulled hard and eventually just went to the front. Her aggressive style and pedigree hint she could be vulnerable stretching out to seven furlongs if pressed early.

Lyrical Lady, by More Than Ready
Last 3 Beyers: 90-27-76

◗ Fell apart in the Grade 2 Adirondack last summer at Saratoga, but has been strong on the lead – setting fast paces – in two other starts, both wins. Her most recent start was an impressive allowance score at Oaklawn.

◗ Clearly grew bigger and stronger since last year, and were she to go off anywhere close to her morning line would offer value.

Queen of Beas, by Flatter
Last 3 Beyers: 87-92-58

◗ She had two nice wins at Gulfstream early this year but hasn’t raced since Jan. 31.

◗ Trainer Jorge Abreu said in an interview with XBTV that Queen of Beas had gotten sick, and that she was scratched from the Beaumont Stakes at Keeneland because of a wet track.

Mother Mother, by Pioneerof the Nile
Last 3 Beyers: 85-84-79

◗ Got an 87 Beyer in her career debut eight races ago and has yet to hit a mark that high since, a suggestion she’s not developing.

Del Mar May, by Jimmy Creed
Last 3 Beyers: 78-41-84

◗ She won well at Keeneland in her 3-year-old bow, though she only beat maidens. Might have the right running style for the race flow.

◗ Trainer Richard Baltas is 14-0-0-2 at Churchill Downs, with eight of those starters going off at single-digit odds.