In this series, DRF handicapper/linemaker David Aragona provides his opinion of what constitutes fair win value for each runner in a weekend stakes race. The goal of this series is to bypass standard ordinal selections, instead developing price-based opinions around every horse in the field for the purpose of informing sound wagering decisions.  The Oaklawn Handicap drew a very strong field for a Grade 2 event, including some of the top handicap horses in the country. A great deal of attention figures to be focused on the two likely public choices, who may go off even lower than their morning-line odds. Expected odds are provided as my own interpretation of how the race will be bet, but wagering decisions should be based on the actual wagering approaching post time.  Charge It (#7) has been burdened with high expectations this season after leaving fans wanting more when his 2022 season concluded with that smashing 23-length triumph in the Dwyer. While he’s run fine in both starts during this 4-year-old campaign, he has not yet lived up to the hype. His allowance win off the layoff was adequate, but he then failed to make the assumed progression in the Gulfstream Park Mile, losing as a heavy favorite. If we put his Dwyer performance aside, the rest of his form doesn’t merit strong favoritism in a race as deep as this one. I also have some concerns that Todd Pletcher is adding blinkers for this race. Moves such as this send the message that the connections are searching for answers after the horse failed to run to expectations last time. Pletcher’s stats in DRF Formulator reveal that he is an underwhelming 2 for 34 (6 percent, $0.49 ROI) with blinker additions in stakes races over the past five years.   There’s also the matter of how this blinker change will impact the pace, since Charge It is a naturally fast horse drawn outside of his main pace rival Classic Causeway (#6). The TimeformUS Pace Projector shows the gray colt on the early lead, but it’s hard to imagine Classic Causeway rating, so these two could hook up early.   The other horse who figures to attract substantial public support stands on firmer ground. Last Samurai (#2) has really blossomed in the D. Wayne Lukas barn this winter and typically runs some of his best races at Oaklawn Park, a venue at which he can race on Lasix. It’s a minor concern that Lukas has poor statistics with horses exiting victories, but this 5-year-old did win two in a row last time, and he should be even better going this nine-furlong distance. I view him as the most likely winner, but both of these favorites could take too much money, generating value elsewhere.  I believe both runners coming out of the Santa Anita Handicap are candidates to offer fair value in this Oaklawn Handicap. Stilleto Boy (#3) won that race at 13-1, and I’m often reticent to take a horse at a shorter price after his improved form is exposed. Yet Stilleto Boy is just the sort of overachiever who rarely attracts as much wagering support as his form should command. He got a great ride and trip from Kent Desormeaux to win last time and just has to avoid getting caught up in a quick pace if the two speeds drawn outside get sent early.  Proxy (#4) is perhaps the most interesting horse in the race from a wagering standpoint. He ran out of ground when unable to catch Stilleto Boy in the Big Cap last time, but that was a race in which no other runners launched successful bids from the back of the pack even though the pace appeared to be fast. The day is color-coded pink in TimeformUS, indicating a slightly speed-favoring surface. Proxy has plenty of prior speed figures that put him in the mix, and even defeated the vastly improved West Will Power when winning the Clark going this distance three back. Joel Rosario is familiar with him, and I’m confident he’ll come running late in a race where stamina could come into play. Assuming Proxy’s morning-line odds of 4-1 are accurate, I think he offers some value even a tick lower than that.   Proxy and Stilleto Boy each look like viable alternatives to favorites that may be overbet, and I would let the expected post-time odds dictate how much to upgrade either or both in my wagers.