Fair Odds for the Lexington: Identifying value among logical contenders

In this series DRF handicapper/linemaker David Aragona provides his opinion of what constitutes fair win value for each runner in a weekend stakes race. The goal of this series is to bypass standard ordinal selections, instead developing price-based opinions around every horse in the field for the purpose of informing sound wagering decisions.

This Saturday’s Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland features a clash of lightly raced prospects who figure to dominate the wagering. I generally agree with the morning line for this race and expect it hold up fairly well, so I only made some minor adjustments when settling upon the expected post-time odds in the grid below. As a linemaker myself, I can attest that it is often difficult to capture a realistic spread between the favorites and longshots when working within the limitations of a morning line. Therefore, my primary adjustment is to widen that gap slightly.

The main source of value in this Lexington is derived from my negative stance on Arabian Lion (#11). He seems likely to attract at least moderate support given his connections, Bob Baffert and Irad Ortiz Jr., along with some flashy speed figures. Yet nothing about this horse’s recent efforts makes me want to bet him in this spot. Like many progeny of Justify, he has failed to hold his form over route distances on dirt. I think he’s a poor bet at single-digit odds and will count on his presence to generate value elsewhere on the tote board.

I expect the winner of this race to be among the four runners that I’ve pegged at 6-1 or lower on my Fair Odds line. First Mission (#5) and Disarm (#6) both have strong chances, but I’m skeptical that either one will offer value as the likely top choices in the wagering, perhaps going off shorter than 7-2. First Mission has arguably displayed the most brilliance of anyone in this field, but he does still have something to prove as he steps up in class off a soft-trip maiden score. Disarm comes into this race with some intention, looking to secure enough qualifying points to make it into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. I wasn’t quite as thrilled with his Louisiana Derby performance as others seem to be, but he does at least have some positive experience in a race of similar quality.

I’m more interested in the other Brad Cox trainee, Demolition Duke (#3). I suspect he possesses as much raw ability as Disarm, but unlike that foe he still appears to be underrated. He didn’t attract much wagering support in either start at Fair Grounds yet exceeded expectations on both occasions. I was especially impressed with this two-turn effort last time, in which he overcame a glacial early pace to narrowly miss to stablemate Bishops Bay. That rival was never letting him go past, but Demolition Duke nevertheless deserves credit for making up ground into some swift closing splits. He now gets a rider upgrade to Flavien Prat, and there’s supposed to be enough pace to set up his late run. I pegged his fair odds at 9-2, and I expect to get at least that price.

Empirestrikesfast (#8) seems like more of a wild card with just one start under his belt. This gelding may have a bright future, but I have some concerns about his ability to build upon that fast debut performance right now. He got a perfect trip but still had to be aggressively handled to achieve the winning result, and Bill Mott has poor statistics with last-out debut winners. I don’t expect his post-time odds will satisfy the 6-1 fair price, which accounts for those concerns.

Looking beyond the logical types, I failed to see many clever angles on longshots, so I won’t make a strong push for any of them. I wasn’t too surprised when Denington (#7) regressed last time following his Fair Grounds allowance victory. However, he did have a valid excuse in the Louisiana Derby, always traveling wide behind that race’s slow pace, so he may be slightly better than that result suggests. Reinvest (#2) has run slower speed figures against weak competition, but he does seem like one with upward mobility who has potential for better down the road. It’s difficult to get overly excited about either of these options given the apparent strength among the more logical types. Yet this piece is all about keeping an open mind with regard to price, and both could offer some negligible value.