Fair Grounds handicapping roundup: Week of Nov. 23

Fair Grounds gets chalky

The 142nd Fair Grounds racing season begins this week. I’ve covered 13 of them – maybe after 129 or so more I will get the hang of this thing. Seriously, Fair Grounds is not my best track, and I think there’s one significant reason why: I have a natural aversion to picking favorites, and this place has increasingly become a chalk paradise. That’s one of many handicapping trends worth monitoring as another winter of racing in New Orleans gets started.

Wisdom of crowds

The past, of course, is only a rough guide to the future, but Fair Grounds has trended strongly toward winning favorites during the last several seasons. Handicappers are programmed to expect roughly one in three favorites to win, but their success rate has been higher here. Since November 2008, favorites have gone 1,703 for 4,633 in all Fair Grounds races, a 37 percent strike rate. Turf favorites have won at a meaningfully lesser rate during that period, coming in 33 percent of the time. But winning turf chalk came in at the same astronomical 41 percent rate as dirt favorites during the 2012-13 meet.

Think about that – 41 percent winning favorites over a four-plus-month meet. It’s a remarkable number, and one to keep in mind, particularly from a contrarian’s perspective.

Geometry matters

Post position definitely should have carried significant weight in many types of Fair Grounds races during the 2012-13 meet. Namely, the inside – and especially the rail – was golden in many situations.

The Fair Grounds turf course has been draining improperly in recent years, and the inside often has seemed boggier than outside paths on wet days. But last year’s post-position stats don’t reflect that. Rail-drawn horses won a whopping 28 percent of Fair Grounds turf sprints (the only one-turn distance here is 5 1/2 furlongs), going 13 for 47. Post 2 won at a 17 percent rate (8 for 47) in turf sprints. That’s 21 winners from 47 races right there.

The story in turf routes was similar, though not quite so unbalanced: In the end, posts 1-5 conferred a distinct advantage in races at one mile and 1 1/16 miles. Oddly, 7 1/2-furlong races, which have a shorter run to the first turn and would figure to benefit inside draws, showed no such trend, albeit with a fairly small sample size.

On dirt, an inside draw in a sprint race frequently was a very good thing. Rail-drawn horses won 20 percent (21 of 103) of main–track races at 5 1/2 furlongs, with post 2 producing the second-best win rate (14 percent, 14 of 103). Six-furlong races produced similar numbers, with rail horses winning at a 21 percent clip and horses from post 2 at 15 percent. At both distances (especially 5 1/2 furlongs), win rates dropped on a fairly smooth curve the farther outside one got.

Trainers to watch

Al Stall and Tom Amoss are New Orleans natives who were high school buddies, and their names are always prominently featured at this meet. Both will win their share of races here. And you are likely to go bust if you lean heavily on their runners at the Fair Grounds meet.

By recent standards, Amoss’s flat-bet, $2 win return on investment at the 2012-13 meet was high. It also was $1.44. The two seasons before that produced ROIs of $1.22 and $1.19.

Stall’s ROI three seasons ago was $1.53, a major high-water mark. His barn’s ROIs in the other three of the last four years were $1.09, $1.11, and $0.99.

I’m not saying you have to shun horses from these outfits. Far from it – we’ve already gone over the high rate of winning favorites, and winning favorites will get you a low ROI like these. But in terms of flat-bet value, there’s none to be found here.

Now, Mike Maker (another big name, but a recent Fair Grounds participant), that’s another story. Despite often using the ever-popular Rosie Napravnik on his runners last year, Maker produced a $2.47 ROI at the 2012-13 Fair Grounds season. The year before, it was a respectable $1.80.

And then there are the lower-profile barns of which handicappers should take special note. I will throw out three: Wes Hawley, Eddie Johnston, and Leo Gabriel. All three point their stables to this meet, and both Gabriel and Hawley have had great early-season success here in recent years.

Two Turning Three

Here’s what probably will prove to be a highly inadequate list of 2-year-olds to watch (grouped by trainer) who are either already at Fair Grounds or will soon arrive, and whose connections plan on racing them in New Orleans.

Larry Jones:
DIVINE VIEW – Jones called him his best prospect. Won Nov. 16 sprint debut at Churchill Downs going away, and trainer thinks he’s a route horse.
ALBANO – Brother to Mark Valeski was third in Oct. 27 debut at Churchill.
CASSATT – Tapit filly was pacesetting third going two turns in September debut at Churchill.
GENERAL IKE – Duds in first two starts. “We’ll get him figured out,” Jones said.

Bret Calhoun:
SON OF A PREACHER – Churchill debut winner by Pulpit entered on grass there this week.
KALA RYAN – Dunkirk filly narrowly lost debut, broke through in second start at Churchill.
SON OF DIXIE – Three sprints in Kentucky but might want two turns.
PLUG CATCHER – Debut win in September much better than flop Nov. 9.

Steve Asmussen:
TAPITURE – Maiden after three starts but third in Iroquois and has some ability.
CANDY DANDY – Candy Ride colt blowout debut winner June 30 at Churchill. Off since Saratoga Special.
TEARDROP – Tapit debut winner has steady works for first start since June.

Al Stall:
PURPLE SKY – Third to Honor Code in Saratoga debut. Barn scratching head over Nov. 9 dud.
VEXED – Win and stakes placing at Churchill this fall for Arch filly.

Tom Amoss:
RISE UP – One of the favorites for Delta Jackpot this weekend.
KENDALL’S BOY – Didn’t handle Keeneland Polytrack last out.

Danny Pish:
GOT SHADES – Turf stakes winner will try dirt in Lecomte.