Fair Grounds handicapping roundup: Week of March 29

Bias in the making?

It’s been two racing weeks since the inside-speed bias on dirt vanished. Early on both the March 19 and March 20 cards, front-runners setting a fast pace won, which sensitized my bias antenna, but nothing came of it. Not only were pressers and stalkers successful on dirt during the five-day period from March 19-23, actual closers won some races, too, and that really wasn’t happening for much of this meet.

So, are we to expect a fair main track for closing weekend and the Louisiana Derby card on Saturday? I’m not at all convinced of that. The surface has remained fast-playing, and, as I mentioned, dropped hints of a bias on several days last week. Moreover, the first two dirt races of the Thursday, March 27 card had extremely fast route paces relative to the class level. A stretchout sprinter wired the first of them, a 43-1 shot led most of the way and held third in the second.

I would very much see this as a developing trend that could begin to blossom Friday and really bloom Saturday – it’s true that racetracks just can’t seem to help themselves when it comes to “souping up” the surface on a big day – but for one thing: rain. There’s a strong chance of rain Thursday night into Friday, and a dousing of the surface could arrest the stuff that seemed to be evolving on the Thursday card.

Conclusion? Anything is possible Saturday. But that’s where the less appealing early races on a 13-race card can help. Watch them very closely.

Not the old turf course

With heavy rain falling two nights before the Feb. 22 Risen Star, and the inner turf rail scheduled to be taken down with races run at the true “zero” position, I was confidently forecasting the superiority of outside paths on grass for that program. Wrong.

For the last three years, rain and the rail down meant the inside of the course was far, far more demanding that outside lanes, but that just doesn’t seem to be happening anymore. I was highly skeptical that the repairs Fair Grounds made to the turf drainage system during the offseason were having much effect early this meet, but track officials contended that cold weather was the culprit for a course that clearly was holding water. Maybe that was true, but whatever the case, the turf has come out of the last several heavy rains far, far firmer than anyone witness to the course’s recent history would have expected.

I don’t see why that would suddenly change, and I won’t be weighting the course profile in my turf handicapping on the Saturday card. There’s no reason I can see to downgrade the chances of a horse like rail-drawn Amira’s Prince in the Mervin Muniz Handicap.

Looking past the last race

People as a whole and horseplayers in particular can’t seem to help prizing the recent over the distant event, and of course in handicapping the recent is inherently more important.

But there still is a tendency to give too much weight to a horse’s most recent performance, and that could happen to bettors in both the Fair Grounds Oaks and the Louisiana Derby on Saturday.

Untapable was undeniably awesome winning the Feb. 22 Rachel Alexandra Stakes, but she had never run that well before. Her odds were almost 9-2 in the Rachel Alexandra and are plummeting to odds-on in the Fair Grounds Oaks, and now is the time to take a stand against Untapable. If you’re wrong, what have you lost: A 3-5 shot? The “distant” horse is Unbridled Forever, who was very nearly as impressive winning her last race – but that came back in January.

Intense Holiday poses a similar situation in the Louisiana Derby. I was all for forecasting a peak effort at odds of 5-1 in the Risen Star, but just as with Untapable, Intense Holiday now is coming off a career-best race and coming way, way down in price. Can he win Saturday? Sure, and his odds won’t go as low as Untapable’s in the Oaks. But should you bet on Intense Holiday at a price deflated this time by his recent success? I won’t be, at least not as a straight play.