Fair Grounds handicapping roundup: Week of March 22

Louisiana Derby no Risen Star replay

Meet’s end is just around the corner, which also means the meet’s best day of racing is right around the corner. The New Orleans Handicap, with Palace Malice, Revolutionary, Normandy Invasion, and Mylute all possible, is shaping up as an intriguing race. And the Fair Grounds Oaks, with Untapable, Unbridled Forever, and Fiftyshadesofgold, will be the deepest 3-year-old filly stakes so far this year.

The Louisiana Derby is, for the most part, going to be a rerun of the Feb. 22 Risen Star Stakes, though the absence of Rebel winner Hoppertunity clearly will deprive the Fair Grounds spot of a talented horse. But here’s an early prediction that the Louisiana Derby will unfold with an entirely different race shape than did the Risen Star.

In the Risen Star, Rise Up missed the break and the speedy Interchange stumbled just after the start. Vicar’s In Trouble, who has serious sprint speed, was taken back off the pace from post 13. And there was rail-drawn Albano, suddenly and surprisingly all alone on a very moderate gallop.
Well, Rise Up is back for the Louisiana Derby with blinkers on and trainer Tom Amoss determined to employ his horse’s best asset – his early speed.

I can’t see any way there’s close to a 13-horse field this time, and Vicar’s In Trouble might be ridden more forwardly – like he was in his Lecomte win – than was the case in the Risen Star. Finally, Springboard Mile winner Louies Flower is expected to join the Louisiana Derby cast, and his best chance also will come from the front end.

It all points to the Louisiana Derby being fast-paced early and middle, which – I think – will produce a different trip for the versatile Albano, but also make Risen Star winner Intense Holiday, who overcame the slow Risen Star tempo to win, an even more likely winner this month than he was last.

Not the same old turf course

For the third time in a row, the turf course came out of a rainy period as if it had been covered by a tarp.

When grass racing resumed March 13 after a break, the course was labeled yielding and by all rights should have been yielding, but times – both fractional and final – actually were quick by long-term Fair Grounds grass standards, and while the official designation was good March 14, I would have called the course good-to-firm both days.

This was the exact pattern we saw during the last racing week, when there had been far more rain before turf racing returned March 8 than this past week. Horsemen at the track reported seeing standing water on the infield on the day grass racing resumed, but the course neither looked especially wet, nor did it produce the sort of slow times one would expect from a truly yielding course.

Moreover, the portable rail had been taken down and the races last week were run on the innermost part of the course. For the last several years – and this has been especially true after a rainy spell – that has conferred a major advantage to outside closers, but guess how many true closers won in the seven turf races March 8 and March 9? Zero.

This past week, there were 10 grass races on March 13, 14, and 15 before the March 16 turf races were rained off, and all sorts of running styles and positions relative to the rail had success.

Fair Grounds, deservedly so, has taken a lot of heat for the condition of its turf course, but it appears track officials’ contention that cold weather in December and January was contributing to poor drainage holds water (pun intended). The drainage system on the problematic far turn was repaired during the offseason, and the fix, since mid-February, at least, appears to have taken hold with warmer temperatures.

What it means for Fair Grounds players – until further notice, at least – is an end to handicapping grass races with the course profile foremost in one’s mind. Inside paths on wet days in recent meets had to be strictly avoided, and for years deep outside closers appeared to hold an inherent edge on the course. I don’t see that being the case right now, and will attack grass races until meet’s end accordingly.