Fair Grounds handicapping roundup: Week of Jan. 25

Vicar’s in Trouble got help, but not from bias

I was surprised to read on the Daily Racing Form website an analysis of the Lecomte Stakes that ascribed – in part, at least – the pace-pressing victory of Vicar’s in Trouble to a prevailing main-track speed bias last Saturday.

Bluntly, and to take a different perspective, I don’t believe there was a speed bias. Speed held decently, yes, and no deep closers won dirt races, but I don’t think there was much of a bias. And if you’re looking for the main reason (besides his obvious raw talent) why Vicar’s in Trouble dashed clear of his pursuers in the stretch run of his route and stakes debut, look to the Lecomte’s internal fractions.

First, as for the bias: There were eight dirt races last Saturday – five routes and three sprints – won by three front-runners, three pace-pressers, and two stalking types. What was in short supply during the main-track portion of the card, however, were fast paces.

Races 1 and 2 each had a slow pace to the quarter and half; races 5, 7, 9, 10, and 11 had early and middle paces I would call average; and only race 3 unfolded at a truly fast pace. That race also happened to be won by an 11-1 speed horse, and if there was a single trigger for bias interpretations, that would be the race.

But that’s thin evidence in my book. Also consider that four of the dirt races had short fields and that short-priced favorites won races 1 and 2. I believe it’s fair to say that the front-running types succeeded on this card mainly because of a multiplicity of circumstances and not a bias.

The three dirt-route races were all stakes, and – unsurprisingly – the Louisiana Handicap for older horses by far the most solid of them. That race had the fastest first half-mile split (47.49 seconds) by close to a half-second, as well as a second half-mile split (49.21) that was more than a second faster than the Lecomte and the Silverbulletday, which were for 3-year-olds.

Meanwhile, after going a decent clip (47.80) for the first half, the Lecomte pace slowed dramatically around the far turn as the pacesetting Roman Unbridled failed to carry his speed. The second half-mile of the Lecomte went in a pedestrian 50.56 seconds, which helps explain Vicar’s in Trouble’s energetic – if green – stretch run.

The second half of the Silverbulletday also failed to impress (especially a fourth quarter-mile, mainly down a straightaway, in a dawdling 25.96). Unbridled Forever was an eye-catching Silverbulletday winner, and the race was highly rated on the Beyer Speed Figure scale, but both the winner and pacesetting runner-up Divine Beauty have something to prove.

Back to the grass

Finally, after an unfortunate string of off-the-turf days, grass racing resumed during the last two days of the four-day racing week. The portable inner rail was set at 10 feet last Saturday, when the turf was labeled yielding, and at 15 feet last Sunday, when the ground had been upgraded to good.

Before all the trouble with the course came in late December, the turf had not really played like the traditional Fair Grounds grass course, a course that produced consistently slow fractions that nevertheless resulted in outside-closing dominance. There were more apparently legitimate paces early in the meet, and front-running types won their share of races, but that was not the case during the two days last racing week.

The early and middle pace was slow in four of the six grass races last weekend, but deep outside closers also won four of those races and dominated the higher placings. That trend takes a little of the shine off the tough-trip, fast-finishing Col. Bradley win last Saturday by Daddy Nose Best – though certainly not all of it. The horse has taken beautifully to the local course this winter and might be good enough to prove a major player in the Grade 2 Muniz on March 29.

Also worthy of note, given the (small-sample-size warning) course profile was the Marie Krantz last Saturday, in which Masquerade set a decent pace and held second, with the pace-pressing Eden Prairie running well to win by a length.

Getting to know Vashchenko

Anyone playing Fair Grounds this winter should get to know trainer Pavel Vashchenko. (His operation is an offshoot of the Gennadi Dorochenko outfit.)

Vashchenko won two races during the four-day week, and the big news was that one of them, race 7 on Jan. 17, came with an odds-on favorite. Vashchenko does not send out odds-on favorites.

Rarely does he send out favorites of any sort. But his horses have been winning at prices frequently enough to merit close attention. DRF’s internal database tracks 40 different trainer stats, and Vashchenko has a positive return on investment in 26 of them. That’s even more impressive considering that he’s had three or fewer starters in eight of the categories and has an ROI just barely under $2 in two others. That’s a flat-bet profit in roughly 28 of 32 categories. Like I said, meet Mr. Vashchenko.