Fair Grounds handicapping roundup: Week of Jan. 18

GOLD HAWK MAY BE REAL DEAL

Any early-season 3-year-old graded stakes race that offers Kentucky Derby points will, in this Triple Crown-obsessed era, automatically get some degree of hype. Still, I get the feeling that the general response to the Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes, to be run Saturday at Fair Grounds, falls somewhere in the area of “meh.” But a look back at the race’s recent history suggests that’s not quite fair.

Since 2007, the Lecomte has produced four meaningful winners, and there have been some good horses to run who didn’t win. This is not a race for young horses who already have gotten a productive graded-stakes start at 2, the Havanas and the Honor Codes of the world.

That kind of horse, who already has made a mark – and even Fair Grounds-based Tapiture, the 2013 Kentucky Jockey Club winner, falls into this zone – is more likely to emerge in February and not be trained hard enough to make a race like the Lecomte.

What the Lecomte – as well as its sister race Saturday, the Silverbulletday – does provide is a launching pad for maiden or allowance winners just getting started in stakes. Sometimes, those are good horses; sometimes, not so much.

Three of the four recent winners whom I’d call meaningful made their pre-Lecomte start at a track other than Fair Grounds. Hard Spun, who won in 2007 and turned out to be one of the best runners in his class, had made his last start at Philadelphia Park. Ron the Greek, who rallied from last of 10 to win the 2010 Lecomte – a foreshadowing of his excellent older-horse exploits – had last raced at Remington Park. Oxbow, the subsequent Preakness winner who dominated the 2013 Lecomte, had last started in the CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park, going against the grain of Lecomte winners who lacked graded-stakes experience.

Among the big four in the last seven years, only Friesan Fire, who wound up the 2009 Kentucky Derby favorite, made his pre-Lecomte start at Fair Grounds, finishing second in an allowance in December 2008.

All this is leading to the case of Gold Hawk, who I think is the one horse among the nine Lecomte entrants who could wind up as a major player on the Triple Crown trail this year. If he does, his case would pretty much be without precedent.

Friesan Fire might have lost a Fair Grounds allowance race before the Lecomte, but he had run well in the Nashua and the Futurity in New York the fall before. All Gold Hawk has done is win a Churchill maiden race in November and a Fair Grounds allowance race in December.

At one mile and 70 yards, the Lecomte might be short of Gold Hawk’s best trip, but its place on the calendar and its lack of seasoned, high-class runners should provide a perfect jumping-off point for him.

There are two fillies similar to Gold Hawk in the Silverbulletday, Divine Beauty, a two-time winner, and Unbridled Forever, who has only a maiden win to her credit. Unlike Gold Hawk, neither has been two turns, and while both horses are talented, my belief is that the most talented filly stabled at Fair Grounds right now is Cassatt.

This might seem a stretch given that Cassatt finished third in her career debut, a two-turn Churchill maiden race, and only won a maiden sprint here Jan. 9. But there was trouble in the race – part of it Cassatt’s own doing, as she was rank around the turn – and once clear in the stretch, Cassatt, as the cliché goes, just exploded.

Her stride is long and beautiful, suggesting a route horse who was winning by more than four lengths in a sprint race, and suffice it to say that Larry Jones, who trains the filly for Rick Porter, is very high on the filly. Keep a close eye on her.

Less impressive but definitely solid last week was the 3-year-old colt Kendall’s Boy, who had looked much more impressive in finishing second to Havana in his career debut than in winning a maiden race at Churchill in his second start. Kendall’s Boy’s effort in the Breeders’ Futurity to end his 2-year-old campaign looked like a throw-out, and he was back on track Jan. 11, winning a first-level allowance by two lengths over Sugar Bowl runner-up Be Well. Expect Kendall’s Boy to try two turns in his next start, and while he probably will have some distance limitations, he galloped out with enough energy to suggest a middle distance will be within range.