Fair Grounds handicapping roundup: Week of Dec. 7

Not your father’s Fair Grounds turf course

So far, the “new” Fair Grounds turf course really does seem new.

The notorious swallower of inside-speed horses has lost its teeth. Since I first started going to Fair Grounds about 13 years ago, the course had a reputation as a closers’ paradise. Even when a race’s early tempo was slow – and it often was – looping one-run ralliers still carried the day more often than not, or so lore went.

To repeat what you may well know by now: The turf was stripped bare last summer. New material was added to the base, and a different strain of grass was planted. Drainage repairs were performed on the far turn.

We’re only two weeks into the meet, and the course has been wet much of the time, but the returns so far show an unbiased racing surface.

The one turf race on Friday, Nov. 29, was won by a front-runner.

On Saturday, Nov. 30, when all the grass races were contested at two turns, a deep closer rallied into a slow pace to win; a horse wired a race through honest splits; a mid-pack stalker won off a moderate pace; and a front-runner won on a slow pace.

All the Sunday, Dec. 1, turf races were sprints. The first of them went to a two- to three-wide presser off a slow pace. Later, an outside closer won off a slow pace, and a speed horse set moderate splits and won.

That’s the profile of an unbiased surface, but many Fair Grounds riders, it seems, have been slow to acknowledge the circumstances. In the Pago Hop Stakes on Nov. 29, favored Eden Prarie was left totally alone on a dawdling pace, and won easily. The same thing happened the next day with Marchman in the Woodchopper. One would assume if the course continues on this trend, jockeys conditioned to automatically take a hold at Fair Grounds will start to get more aggressive. Or not. False-paced turf races have become the norm across most of the country these days.

Don’t ignore Delta Downs runners

Even with the rise of the $1 million Delta Jackot, Delta Downs in western Louisiana remains an unknown for many horseplayers nationally. Yes, the track is tiny, and no, there are not a lot of high-class runners there. And Delta, a bullring at which the only one-turn distance is five furlongs, is a much different sort of track than long-homestretched Fair Grounds. It used to be that one would rarely see horses exiting a Delta race wind up in the Fair Grounds winner’s circle.

Now, it happens all the time. First, Delta’s meet starts in October, after meets at Louisiana Downs and Evangeline Downs have ended. The Delta meet used to begin later, meaning one had more layoff horses in early Fair Grounds races than horses with a recent Delta start. Second, the racing program at Delta and Fair Grounds, at least in the bottom and middle, have converged. Purses are comparable, and one can expect a horse worth $10,000 at Delta to, roughly, be worth the same at Fair Grounds.

Results from the last week back up the growing Delta influence. Horses that made their most recent start at Delta – including some long prices – won the first four races on Nov. 28 and three of the first four the next day. Delta runners, handicappers now should know, are eminently capable of winning in New Orleans in the lower-level classes.

Asmussen in action

Trainer Steve Asmussen won the Sunday feature, a high-level turf-sprint allowance, with Great Mills, who rebounded nicely after a poor last-start showing at Keeneland, and figures to be a player in turf-sprint stakes this meet.

The same day, owner Steve Asmussen went on a little claiming spree. Asmussen claimed City Steel, out of a $12,500 maiden claimer in race 1, then took Distant Cat and Lioness Lahr, two more $12,500 maiden claimers, from the second race.

That suggests Asmussen intends to stay in regular Fair Grounds action and should be heavily favored to win another training title. Take careful note of his starters in coming weeks, as Asmussen’s flat-bet return on investment from 17 Fair Grounds starters through Dec. 1 was a healthy $2.27.