Fair Grounds handicapping roundup: Week of Dec. 28

Talented 2-year-olds begin to emerge

A scheduled five-day race week turned into 4 1/3 when the program last Sunday had to be abandoned after three races because of heavy rain, but those four full days produced at least four late-season 2-year-olds worth watching as the calendar flips to 2014.

On Dec. 20, Unknown Road turned in the best maiden performance of the young season, winning what looked on paper like the best 2-year-old maiden special weight sprint of the season (race 4) by almost 12 lengths. Unknown Road showed speed from the start, and this still was a race at the quarter pole, but Unknown Road, without appearing to exert himself, quickly opened daylight and ran alone to the wire.

Second in his Aqueduct debut, Unknown Road was making his first start for trainer Al Stall and must be considered a major prospect for the 3-year-old route stakes at Fair Grounds. He obviously has plenty of speed, but the colt, by Bernardini and out of Banshee Winds, is bred top and bottom to be a route horse. He galloped out well, ran very fast (98 Beyer Speed Figure), and might be the most exciting prospect in New Orleans right now.

The Dec. 20 card further revealed the turf-route potential of the filly Istanford, who scored her second grass blowout in as many turf tries, capturing race 7, a first-level allowance, by almost three lengths. Istanford was making her first start since coming back on short rest in the Arlington-Washington Lassie, a one-turn Polytrack race, after a debut win at two turns on turf.

She has kindly rateable turf-route speed, a scopey body, and room to improve into the spring, when legit turf-route stakes start appearing on the schedule.

The Dec. 21 card included a pair of $60,000 overnight sprint stakes for 2-year-olds, the Sugar Bowl and the Letellier, which basically served as first-level allowance races. Larry Jones, who seems to point a great deal of his stable to the Fair Grounds meet these days, won both of them, though the filly Divine Beauty seems a more talented horse than the colt Albano. She ran faster (92 Beyer) in winning the Letellier than he did in winning the Sugar Bowl and has won both her races, while Albano has now started three times.

Divine Beauty, Jones is convinced, will be at least as good around two turns as she has been at one, a theory that will be tested Jan. 18 in the Silverbulletday Stakes. Albano was coming out of a Fair Grounds maiden race that hadn’t aged especially well, and one wonders if those behind him in the Sugar Bowl – Be Well and D’Cajun Cat – might not be all that good.

Longshot Monday

Monday’s card was conducted the day after torrential rains forced the cancellation of six races Sunday, and perhaps all the moisture tricked up the main track. For whatever reason, price shots abounded.

Favorites managed to win two of the nine races, but 12-1 Army won race 3, 18-1 Portly won race 4, 10-1 Platinum Song won race 5 (completing a $23,000 $2 pick four), 20-1 Special Guest won race 7, and 35-1 Cone of Light capped things off with a narrow, rallying win in race 8. That last upset came about because of a very hot early and middle pace, much of which was caused by a surprise early outside move from natural stalker Good and Tough, who was gasping by deep stretch.

Napravnik Up, Graham Down

Their win totals for the meet aren’t all that far apart, but Rosie Napravnik asserted her primacy in the Fair Grounds jockey colony during the 4 1/3-day week, while James Graham, who got off to a hot start at this meeting, slowed considerably. Napravnik won with nine of her 30 mounts, posting a $2.31 return on investment despite her presence causing many of her mounts to become underlays. Graham, meanwhile, went just 3 for 29 during the week.