Fair Grounds handicapping roundup: Week of Dec. 21

Rain makes race comparisons difficult

The single most important event of the four-day racing week spanning Dec. 12 to Dec. 15 was the heavy rain that hit Fair Grounds between the ninth and 10th races on Saturday, Dec. 14, Louisiana Champions Day.

The main track’s condition was changed from good to sloppy, an already slow-playing surface became even slower, and the last three races on the Saturday card all were won in blowout fashion by front-runners. One of those winners, Heitai, staked a claim for being the best sprinter in the Louisiana-bred division, if not more, but questions will persist concerning how much extreme conditions flattered his performance in the Champs Day Sprint.

The rainfall rippled back in time, making comparisons between races on the earlier, drier part of the Saturday card – like good 2-year-old wins from Vicar’s In Trouble and Ide Be Cool – with those post-rain difficult. And it had a future effect, slowing the surface to an even greater extent Sunday, when several long-priced winners came home.

Despite the tricky Saturday analysis, I think the brilliance of Vicar’s In Trouble’s showing in Saturday’s sixth, a Louisiana-bred maiden-special-weight sprint, shone clear. The two comparable races on the card (pre-rain) were the Champs Day Lassie (very much sub-par in quality this year), winning six-furlong time 1:13.69, and the Champs Day Ladies Sprint (of average quality?), winning six-furlong time 1:12.24. Vicar’s In Trouble, running over basically the same track, went six-furlongs in 1:10.74, winning by 13 lengths. His final quarter-mile in 24.49 seconds was good, his fifth furlong in 11.56 even stronger, and Vicar’s In Trouble, a son of Into Mischief, came home under no pressure from his rider. He appears to turn his stride over quite quickly, and doesn’t strike one as an obvious prospect for nine furlongs or farther, but he could do in middle-distance routes, and it will be interesting to see the horse (a) run long, and (b) tackle stronger competition, both of which should happen next out.

Ide Be Cool wired the Champions Day Juvenile by seven lengths over even-money favorite Coteau Grove, who looked semi-legit wining the first two starts of his career. Ide Be Cool went a faster opening-quarter than did Vicar’s In Trouble, and didn’t have a single furlong as flashy as Vicar’s In Trouble’s fifth one, but he ran his record to 4 for 4, has handled longer two-turn sprints at Delta, and might not be overmatched in race like the Grade 3 Lecomte on Jan. 18. But why run in the Lecomte when, for a comparable purse, one can face Louisiana-breds a couple weeks later in a $125,000 stakes at Delta?

Heitai, meanwhile, has now recorded Beyer Figures of 104 and 106 in two of his three starts for trainer Karl Broberg. The other race in the Broberg era went up in flames when Heitai speed-dueled his way to defeat over a two-turn, seven-furlong trip Broberg thinks does not suit his very fast horse. Jockey Diego Saenz said he felt Heitai tiring in the late stages of the Sprint, which is hard to square with the fact Heitai went from two up at the stretch call to seven ahead at the finish. But Saenz’s remark makes more sense if you figure the racetrack helped carry Heitai home. He ran in race 11, Raiseanothergator won race 12 by more than 15 lengths while loose on an inside lead, and Sweet Alice Benbow wired race 13 by more than seven, despite barely breaking 14 seconds for her final furlong over what appeared to be a seriously speed-favoring strip.

Turf of old

With grass races rained onto dirt Sunday, and only one grass race Saturday, the slow splits and final times during Thursday’s and Friday’s cards got a little lost. The portable inner turf rail was set at 25 feet, which slows times, but with the same configuration during week 2 of the meet, times weren’t nearly as slow, and front-runners held better than was the case on Dec. 12 and Dec. 13.

The course was called good for the races that were run over it during the week, though there had been no rain for a few days, and the hope is the course, revamped during the off-season, is draining properly, particularly after getting another soaking on Saturday.