Fair Grounds handicapping roundup: Week of Dec. 14
SHORTEST WAY STILL BEST WAY
I wrote in the handicapping preview for this meet about how inside posts had, looking at the very large sample of the entire 2012-2013 meet, conferred a statistically meaningful advantage in dirt races both short and long. Well, that has turned out to be far more than idle statistical chatter vis a vis the present racing season. Check out these early returns.
There have been 39 six-furlong dirt races so far this meet (all totals in this space through Sunday, Dec. 8). Horses breaking from post 1 have won 9 of them, horses breaking from post 2 six more. Posts 1 to 4 are a combined 23 for 39; posts 5 to 12 are a combined 16 for 159.
There have been 30 two-turn dirt races, 28 of them at one mile and 70 yards, three at 1 1/16 miles. (Quick tangent: What’s up with that? Now 1 1/16 mile, like 1 1/8 miles, is too far for horsemen to want to run?) Post 1 is 9 for 30, and post 2 is 6 for 30. Posts 4 to 10 are a combined 9 for 124.
If those stats were standing alone, a major caveat about small-sample size would apply, but we’re talking here about a reinforcing, if not an intensification, of a large-sample trend from one season ago. I’m not suggesting blindly playing horses because they’re drawn on the rail. I am suggesting that if one is between horses, or spreading in a multi-race wager, the post position trends should be kept firmly in mind.
CLOSE CALLS
Scan the point-of-call running positions of winning horses in dirt races throughout the most recent racing week and you will find a distinct absence of larger numbers. I counted two (2!) true closing winners on dirt, in races both short and long, during the four-day race week. Nearly all the main track races were won by a horse who led early – and that happened a lot – pressed, or closely stalked the pace. Watching day to day, I wouldn’t have suggested there was an intense track bias, but the results are the results, and one has to think twice about backing a deep closer even in a race that appears top-heavy with pace.
As for grass racing, there were only two days of it, with turf races rained onto dirt Dec. 7 and Dec. 8. In limited action, the course – as has been the case all meet – continues to play fair, and there is no reason to downgrade horses one likes simply because they possess a front-running style.
SURPRISING DUCKS
Through the race week that ended Dec. 8, jockeys Shaun Bridgmohan and Robby Albarado had combined to win exactly zero races at the meet. Sure, its early, and yes, both riders rode through the end of the Churchill season in late November, but I sure wouldn’t have wagered they would start 0 for 20 combined. Business also has been surprisingly slow for Brian Hernandez Jr., home first with just three of his first 29 runners. It would be surprising if things didn’t pick up considerably for all three riders in coming weeks, Bridgmohan in particular.
WORST PICK 3 EVER?
Though the chalk has won just 5 of 18 grass races, favorites are hitting at a typically (for Fair Grounds) robust 36 percent so far this meet, and the start of the Friday, Dec. 6 card was especially brutal on those attempting to go against the crowd.
Race 1 had a rare actual 1-9 favorite, On Cycle (among seven winners from trainer Ron Faucheux’s first 19 starters this meet), who galloped home by 5 1/2 lengths. Passing Simon won race 2 by more than eight lengths at odds of 4-5, and Splurgess (a horse with among the worst running action I’ve ever seen in a racehorse) captured race 3 at odds of 1-2. Put that trio together and you got a pick three that paid $7.20 for a $2 bet, not even enough for a corned beef po boy.