Euros have the horses to score on Million Day

ARLINGTON HEIGHTS, Ill. – Fifteen horses from Europe have come for the Arlington Million card Saturday, and using history as a guide, they’re highly unlikely to leave empty-handed. If you’re betting the Million card Saturday, you absolutely have to account for the largest overseas contingent of racehorses seen in North American outside the Breeders’ Cup.

Arlington Million

Maverick Wave – Think Debussy, winner of the 2010 Million at 12-1. John Gosden trained Debussy and trains Maverick Wave, who like Debussy comes here an unheralded 4-year-old. Debussy generally was regarded as insufficiently talented to win, but he liked going left-handed and ran turns well, and his two U.S. starts on the anti-bleeder medication Lasix were the best of his career. All those characteristics could apply to Maverick Wave, who won the same North American-centric race as Debussy, the Group 3 Huxley at tight-turning Chester. He has long been pointed here, travelled well, and made a favorable initial physical appearance this week. The best of the overseas bunch.

Wake Forest – German horse trained by Andreas Wohler, who won the 2001 Million with Silvano. Wake Forest, though, is nowhere near the proven Group 1 talent Silvano was when he won here. A mile and a quarter is his trip, but his only Group 1 try – and a weak Group 1 at that – produced a third-place finish in Italy. One place and two lengths ahead of him there was Magic Artist, a well-beaten fifth in the Manhattan Stakes this past June.

Belgian Bill – Seven-year-old at least remains in his sexual prime, judging from his reaction to nearby fillies here Tuesday morning. Good coat on smallish horse whose best trip looks on paper more like a mile than 1 1/4 miles. Has some speed and will probably be ridden from behind to try and deploy it in the final quarter-mile. Well-exposed form is a cut below some of these and he almost certainly can’t win, but he comes off good effort, connections expect improvement, and he is a candidate for trifectas and superfectas at long odds.

Bookrunner – Sold to American connections since his most recent start, and also was considered for the Fourstardave at Saratoga. The two in front of him last time in France are only decent, and before that he was racing against very modest competition. Questionable at 10 furlongs, and unlikely to factor.

Elleval – Well exposed and not good enough, and I have a hunch the horse in that category who could outrun his Million odds is Belgian Bill.

Beverly D.

Euro Charline – Euros are working a three-race Beverly D. win streak and are likely to make it four in a row. Euro Charline was the first 3-year-old Beverly D. winner, and she seeks to become race’s first repeat winner. She’s quirky and stubborn, can be tough to handle, but has traveled with success and comes here sitting on a peak performance after a light 2015 campaign. Was short of her best in Dubai, where the competition was stiffer than she faces now, and was flattered when Amazing Maria, who beat her in the Group 1 Falmouth, came right back to win the Group 1 Rothschild.

Wedding Vow – Three-year-old from the Aidan O’Brien barn is a major player. Has only recently found her best, and two back won the Kilboy Estate, the same race Dank used as a springboard to a blowout win here in 2013. Second last out in the Group 1 Nassau to Legatissimo, the English 1000 Guineas winner who was beaten a nose in the Epsom Oaks. Wedding Vow ran on strongly from second-last despite taking a hard bump a little more than a furlong out. Good to firm going seems a plus, as does a sharp American-style 1 3/16 miles. Watch out.

Secret Gesture – Finished a close fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, her first U.S. trip, but she was outkicked to the wire there in a performance that mirrors her career – not quite good enough for the best. Her second in the 2013 Epsom Oaks might be as well as she’s run. Turf condition and distance are fine, but looks more a player for minor exotic slots.

Carla Bianca – Tough-to-read form for trainer Dermot Weld. She ran against excellent competition making two starts at 2 in 2013, but was not even tried above the Group 3 level last year despite a four-race win streak. She has had two recent races against males, including a last-out win over Million runner Elleval. She should relish the distance and the course condition, and can be included in wagering plans at close to double-digit odds.

Lucy – The good news: She is better than her most recent race. The bad news: She’s not good enough.

Secretariat

Highland Reel – He’s a real horse, and if he’s one notch short of the very best Euro 3-year-olds, it’s probably not too much more than that. Below form in the Irish Derby, but might not really want that 1 1/2-mile distance, though he beat lesser over the trip last out. He finished second in the 2015 French Derby, which although not a vintage running remains a major-jurisdiction classic. Highland Reel showed he suits fast turf. His trainer, Aidan O’Brien, won this race with Adelaide last year, and he is likely to win it again.

War Dispatch – Highland Reel had almost two lengths on him in the Prix du Jockey Club, and that echoes the bigger picture: He is not quite as good as his Ireland-based rival, but can still easily get into the Secretariat trifecta.

Goldstream – Who knows? He has owned his Italian competition, and easily won the biggest race of the 3-year-old season there, but Italian racing has fallen hard the last several years, and Goldstream will be taking his talent up to a new class level in the Secretariat. Has been purchased by Australian connections as a candidate for the Cox Plate later this year.

American St. Leger

Lucky Speed – The 2013 German Derby winner has come here from Woodbine, where he raced July 19 in the Nijinsky, a nine-furlong race well short of his best trip. That, basically, was a warm-up for this, and Lucky Speed, by 2001 Million winner Silvano, has the quality and stamina to win the American St. Leger at fair odds.

Panama Hat – He’s just not that good, and there’s no certainty he stays the marathon trip. Small slice is best hope here.