Europeans should factor in juvenile turf races

ARCADIA, Calif. – It’s 2-year-old Friday at the 2019 Breeders’ Cup and, boy, do the overseas folks want a piece of the action. The Juvenile Fillies Turf and Juvenile Turf Sprint are packed with Europeans.

Let’s keep a couple things in mind. While there are more long-distance racehorses in Europe than America, they campaign their 2-year-olds over shorter distances than we do. Because a horse has been kept to six- and seven-furlong races does not mean his connections believe he’s a sprinter.

Associated point: Straight-course sprints overseas often play longer than their raw distance owing to uphill sections of travel. If a 2-year-old can get seven furlongs overseas, they can get a mile at Santa Anita.

On to the races.

Juvenile Turf Sprint

The issue with overseas horses in the Juvenile Turf Sprint is the same one that has tripped up European horses in the BC Turf Sprint: Most sprint races in Europe don’t include a turn. This is especially impactful on 2-year-olds, who barely know what’s going on anyway, and now at Santa Anita will be hit with a sharp bend just as they’re getting a feel for the race.

The most accomplished of this large group is A’Ali. Frankie Dettori rides A’Ali, which is a plus, because Dettori well knows the permutations of American racing, but A’Ali, like most of his compatriots, has only raced down straight courses. He has, however, been to a turning track to do a fast workout around a bend, so that, too, could help. He’s got four good races and one okay race from five starts. The lesser performance came in his toughest spot, the Group 1 Prix Morny, but a soft course as much as the competition might have brought him down. If Wesley Ward’s duo of Kimari and Four Wheel Drive didn’t appear so strong, he’d look better.

King Neptune, for trainer Aidan O’Brien and jockey Ryan Moore, hasn’t won since his debut nine starts ago, but did race around a left-handed turn in that all-weather maiden race and has strong form through the high-class Middle Park stakes last time. He’s run nine times and can’t improve much at this point, but also can’t be ruled out.

Dr Simpson could go off at 25-1 or higher and is interesting at that kind of price. This filly has thrown in a couple clunkers, but her peak performances aren’t too far off what might be required, and that includes her most recent start, a Group 3 all-weather stakes open to older horses. Granted, Dr Simpson got a ton of weight, but she ran well around a turn and scored a sharp victory. She also debuted going five furlongs at Chester, a racecourse with a small circumference where even races at that distance are run around bends.

The three other Europeans in the race are Alligator Alley, Dream Shot, and Band Practice, and are rated in that order.

Juvenile Turf

One trainer, Aidan O’Brien, has the only two overseas horses entered, Arizona and Fort Myers. Arizona clearly is the stronger of the two (or has been) and though Arizona has speed, Fort Myers’s occasionally breakneck racing style hints he could be used as a pacemaker.

O’Brien has four Juvenile Turf wins, and two of his winners, Mendelssohn and George Vancouver, ran well while losing the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes, just like Arizona did in his last start. George Vancouver, who won at Santa Anita in 2012, came here with six- and seven-furlong form suspiciously similar to Arizona’s. Arizona, unlike many Europeans, breaks sharply and has plenty of positional pace. He should be tough.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

The big two here are Albigna and Daahyeh, and as of Tuesday it was the latter favored over the former in overseas wagering. This handicapper prefers things the other way around.

Daahyeh beat Albigna the one time they met, in the Moyglare Stud, where Daahyeh turned in a solid outside run finishing second to Love, who got the jump on her. Albigna flailed home sixth, beaten 2 1/2 lengths, but was found to be in estrus at the time of the race. Draw a line through the start and Albigna’s form has no holes.

Her other three wins are stacked in ascending impressiveness, and her going-away victory Oct. 6 in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac was more than two seconds faster than the corresponding race for males on the card. Albigna also handled a turn in the Boussac, and while she won over soft ground there, to the eye she looked more comfortable on firmer turf in Ireland. The only concern is she ran so hard and peaked a month ago, and now comes travel and another tough race.

Daahyeh is smaller and quicker twitch than Albigna, and seems less certain to enjoy the longer distance. Her two losses came to talented fillies, though her last-out win in the Rockfel was more workmanlike than brilliant.

Living in the Past might have been exposed when jumped to Group 1 competition last time. Shadn, a slight filly, could have benefited from soft going when she stepped up with a Group 2 win in France on Oct. 12, and in the same vein, Tango’s last-start breakthrough likely correlates to heavy going on the day. Etoile is stuck out in the parking lot in post 14.

We know this has not been a great race for the overseas horses, but this looks like their year.

Juvenile

Japan-based Full Flat has a maiden turf win atop his résumé. Good luck to him here.