Europeans figure prominently in Breeders' Cup turf events

ARCADIA, Calif. – In 2012, European-based horses won two Breeders’ Cup races when the event shifted back to Santa Anita, which had replaced its synthetic main track with dirt since previously hosting the event. That was decent if unspectacular, but last year, the Euros came back with a vengeance, winning five Breeders’ Cup races. This year’s European contingent is long, and it is strong. Let’s take a look, race by race, listed in post-position order, at the European invasion.

Filly and Mare Turf

Just The Judge struggled badly after winning the 2013 Irish 1000 Guineas and looked like she might never regain her form, but she did, and her two North American races might be the best she has produced. She was narrowly beaten for second by Stephanie’s Kitten, the top female North American turf horse, in the Beverly D. Stakes, a performance that, despite a lower Beyer Speed Figure, might have exceeded her win in the E.P. Taylor. The quick turnaround for the Breeders’ Cup is a concern, as is her inherent class and ability to athletically handle this fast, tight course.

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Dank is the gigantic X factor. Her three non-European races – wins in the 2013 Beverly D. and Filly and Mare Turf and her third to the brilliant Just a Way in the Dubai Duty Free – would swamp these rivals. But Dank’s season since Dubai has been a zero, and she hasn’t raced since June. Still, jockey Ryan Moore called her his best chance this weekend, and one can see the Dank camp’s thinking. Since she’s far better out of Europe, why not just wait for the Breeders’ Cup? Especially with a conditioner as skilled as Michael Stoute. No value, no toss.

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Secret Gesture is at least Just The Judge’s equal at a longer price, and she has other things going for her. Her solid third last out in the Group 1 Romanet came on soft ground, and Secret Gesture probably wants firmer. One of her best performances was her second in the York Stakes, and the left-turning York course is one of Europe’s closest in nature to American-style racing. Secret Gesture has a touch of pace, an asset in a race lacking front-runners. She has appeal.

Fiesolana is a 5-year-old on the way to the breeding shed, and this has the feel of a why-not-take-a-shot? entry. She prefers shorter.

Juvenile

The Great War has the usual Euro-in-Juvenile history: No races close to this distance; no race on dirt. O’Brien said The Great War has trained on all-weather tracks but didn’t go to the dirt-like Fibresand at Southwell, where Declaration of War worked before his Classic third-place finish last year. O’Brien won the Juvenile with Johannesburg in 2001, but his other 12 Juvenile starters have an average finishing position of seventh.

Turf

Telescope has been aimed at this race for a couple months, and his trainer, Michael Stoute, has won it three times, including two victories by Conduit over this course. Telescope is not one of the very best 12-furlong horses in Europe, but the thought is that he will be better suited to American racing than European, in particular the firm course here. Telescope clearly is good enough to win. His recent losses have been to three of Europe’s elite – Australia, Taghrooda, and The Grey Gatsby – and he destroyed Canadian International winner Hillstar in the Hardwicke. The Juddmonte last out was short of his best distance, Telescope gets Lasix, the rail is a great draw for this distance at Santa Anita, and Ryan Moore rides. Watch out.

Brown Panther is a monster of a horse, and one can see why he has started several times at two miles and farther. He won a race at Pontrefact, an enormous, sweeping course that would seem to suit him much better than cozy Santa Anita. He’s here mainly because he got loose before the Canadian International, forcing a scratch. Has some pace. Unlikely.

Flintshire’s record on good and firm turf courses is unimpeachable, and if he runs right back to his strong second to Treve in the Arc, even a peak Telescope might not beat him. He did have a favorable Arc trip, and the fear would be that he peaked and will not quite reach that performance level 27 days later. Flintshire got very hot his first day training at Santa Anita but settled in nicely thereafter, though the effects of a tough recent race and a long ship might not show until things get serious Saturday. Prefer underneath, but he can win.

Chicquita was purchased by Coolmore for big money between her 3- and 4-year-old seasons but has so far failed to deliver a performance up to her win in the Irish Oaks and her second to Treve in the French Oaks. The filly has talent, but she is in this race rather than the BC Filly and Mare Turf because she apparently needs 1 1/2 miles. And she can race crazily. She ran through a hedge in her second career start and cost herself victory last out at Ascot by drifting badly in the late stages. Deserving longshot is not hopeless.

Sprint

Elite European sprinters are sparse this year, and Wind Fire is not close to being one of them. She has a dirt pedigree, and the hope would be that she improves many lengths on dirt. It’s hard to see her making an impact.

Mile

Veda , a 3-year-old filly, is talented and interesting. She fell out the backdoor in the French 1000 Guineas but came with a powerful finish to nab second to Avenir Certain, who was unbeaten until the Arc. Veda has more pace than that, and she showed it last out in what was likely a Mile prep. She has a chance at a price, but her lack of morning spark this week has been cause for some concern.

Mustajeeb is 6-1 on the morning line and has come in for some support, but it’s hard to ascertain why. He was crushed by Kingman in the Irish 2000 Guineas, his only Group 1 start, and has thrown only mild hints of being a top-class miler. His excellent Irish trainer, Dermot Weld, has a very poor record in the Breeders’ Cup.

Toronado is the big gun, the race favorite with the glitzy running lines. Where Mustajeeb was throttled by Kingman, Toronado came within one length of him in the Sussex. Toronado is a firm-ground horse, which is why his connections targeted this race. At twice his likely price, Toronado would be a strong play, but at 5-2, his lack of left-handed experience, and the fact that he appears to be very good, not great, could lead one down other avenues.

Trade Storm has done all his best running on left-handed courses and on firm ground, be it in Dubai or North America. A 6-year-old, he once seemed over the top but rebounded by winning the Woodbine Mile. He has a fine turn of foot and should like a fast pace, but a finish higher than third or fourth would come as a surprise.

Anodin , Goldikova’s little brother, runs good races but rarely wins: 0 for 2014 and just 2 for 13 in his career. He ran well for fifth in the Prix de la Foret after checking in midstretch, but he did not trouble Toronado in the Queen Anne and has certainly not been that horse’s equal overseas. Trainer Freddie Head believes he will like fast ground and left turns.

Karakontie did not look great his first two days training at Santa Anita but was considerably better on Day 3. Alas, post 14, a terrible draw, is not going away. Throw out his Foret, as it was brutally troubled, but his overall form comes in for some questions. The French 2000 Guineas, which Karakontie narrowly won, was not especially strong this year, and he probably is not good enough to overcome the draw, even if Lasix and fast ground improve him.