European shippers take shots at rich paydays at Arlington

ARLINGTON HEIGHTS, Ill. – Since the American St. Leger was introduced two years ago, there have been eight six-figure turf stakes on Arlington Million cards. European shippers have won five.

The odds are that one or more Euros will find the winner’s circle Saturday. Two of them, Magician in the Million and Adelaide in the Secretariat, are likely favorites, but there are nine other Euros here to consider.

American St. Leger

Dandino – He won this race by only a half-length last year because of trouble; much the best. But Dandino might not be as good now, and this race looks stronger than the 2013 edition. Assistant trainer Lucie Botti said Dandino was heavy for his first start this year and raced on turf softer than he prefers in his second. Ryan Moore, up here last year, lands elsewhere.

Eye of The Storm – Moore’s mount and possibly overlooked for an Aidan O’Brien trainee. Just 4 to Dandino’s 7, he has run well enough in the past to win and definitely can see out the distance. He’s playable at something close to his 6-1 morning line.

Havana Beat – The least qualified of the Euros here. Just two wins, one of which came in his most recent start, a minor stakes with only three other runners.

Moment In Time – Gets a break in the weights because of her sex. Trainer David Simcock won the 2012 Beverly D. with I’m a Dreamer. Not quite as certain to stay as Dandino and Eye of The Storm, though she was coming steadily last fall in the 1 1/4-mile E.P. Taylor at Woodbine. Would appreciate rain.

Secretariat

Adelaide – Obvious contender. It will be interesting to see how much betting he takes compared with Tourist, who seems a clear second choice. Already has shipped and fired several times and appears to handle various course conditions.

Belisarius – Sold to American connections. Blinkers on, and he has some speed, but on paper, he isn’t good enough.

Beverly D.

Just The Judge – A strong early-season 3-year-old, she fell apart later in 2013 but has bounced back to some extent this year. Thistle Bird, who won Just The Judge’s last two starts, is a solid Group 1 horse but not elite. Uncertain to relish this distance: Her best races have been at a mile, and she finished better going 8 1/2 furlongs two back than going 10 furlongs last out.

Euro Charline – A 3-year-old never has won the Beverly D. She might not break the trend, but she’s worth considering. She’s improved throughout this year, and her good third in the Coronation came with a difficult trip. Interesting, fairly priced, and might like the added distance.

Sparkling Beam – A French 4-year-old who, like Just The Judge, ran her best races at age 3. She’s not hopeless but would need a solid step forward to hit the board.

Million

Magician – The deserving favorite off his Breeders’ Cup Turf win, and he’d be an even lower price had he not clunked last out in the King George, which had a very strong top three and was a race to which he wasn’t especially well suited. Turns and fast ground are what he seems to relish – American-style racing, that is.

Smoking Sun – In with a chance, though a win would easily be a career high-water mark for the 5-year-old. His distance is 1 1/4 miles, and he did well last out at Singapore while racing under conditions that roughly approximate what he’ll find at Arlington.