Euro shippers strongest chance Friday may come in Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
The first Keeneland Breeders’ Cup, in 2015, was kind to European runners.
Overseas horses won two of the five turf races in which they started (no one ran in the Turf Sprint), Hit It a Bomb capturing the Juvenile Turf, Found the Turf. Success ran deeper than victory. Europeans took second and third in the Filly and Mare Turf, second and third in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, first and third in the Juvenile Turf, second in the Mile, and first and second in the Turf.
That’s a fine haul, and there is good reason to expect comparable success from this year’s contingent, so we’d better have a look at them.
Juvenile Turf
Thirteen Juvenile Turfs, eight overseas winners, so you have to account for the Euros.
The logical place to start is with Battleground, since his trainer, Aidan O’Brien, is a four-time winner of the race, including the 2015 renewal at Keeneland. O’Brien often runs two horses here, but in interviews following the Oct. 10 Dewhurst Stakes he made it clear Battleground was the 2-year-old pointed to the Juvenile Turf, which was interesting, since O’Brien had a wealth of available prospects and Battleground hasn’t raced since July 28.
Battleground, the first foal to race out of Found, the 2015 BC Turf winner, was intended for the Sept. 13 National Stakes but coughed and missed the start. There seemed to be little desire to try him over very soft or heavy going, which predominated this fall in Europe, so assume this colt has been primed a couple months for this race. He looks good enough to win it. His straight-course sprint debut was mere practice for the Chesham Stakes over a straight seven furlongs at Royal Ascot, where Battleground showed good pace and was comfortably best. He followed that with a generous performance around a bend – and on firmer going – in the Group 2 Vintage at Goodwood. Coming in late July, the Vintage is an early important test on the European calendar, won by the likes of BC Turf winner Highland Reel and BC Mile winner Expert Eye. Battleground raced relaxed, has gears, and should enjoy a two-turn mile over a firmer course.
Still, Cadillac can beat him. Don’t hold Cadillac’s fifth-place finish last out in the Group 1 Dewhurst against him. Soft ground is not his cup of tea, and Cadillac looked happier racing around bends in Ireland than over the Newmarket straight, and, moreover, as he gamely tried to push into contention, Cadillac found his path blocked multiple times. His two races going left-handed at Leopardstown were excellent, especially the Champions Stakes, where he cruised to an easy win over Van Gogh, an impressive victor Oct. 24 in the Group 1 Gran Criterium at Saint-Cloud. And Mac Swiney, who handed Cadillac a narrow loss Aug. 22 in the straight-course Futurity Stakes, subsequently won the Group 1 Vertem Futurity.
Sealiway is one of two from France and twice has faced the other, Go Athletico. If Sealiway runs back to his Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, which he won by eight lengths in a good time considering the conditions, he can win the Juvenile Turf, but the Lagardere was run over a bog. Sealiway skipped across it while his four rivals floundered, hitting a peak so far above his previous five performances that it’s hard to take the race at face value. But he does have tactical speed, ample experience turning, and clear talent – worth taking seriously.
Go Athletico has raced with admirable consistency, is handy and athletic, but seems cut out for racing at one mile or shorter and has little apparent upside on this day.
New Mandate has vastly improved and can’t be dismissed, though he has not faced the highest level of competition. New Mandate stands over a good bit of ground, definitely stays the trip, and has shown a willingness to race through traffic. One concern: He always pulls hard early, and with the first turn coming up quickly and an inside draw Friday, he could be at the mercy of heavy traffic sliding down onto him. The Royal Lodge Stakes, which he won, has produced the 2011 Juvenile Turf winner, Wrote.
Devilwala and The Lir Jet are drawn in posts 13 and 14 – big trouble. Both have speed and must deploy it to try for position. The Lir Jet seemingly peaked several weeks ago and has only sprinted, beating the formidable Golden Pal at Royal Ascot; it’s hard to say why he’s not in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. Devilwala’s 100-1 fourth in the Dewhurst wasn’t a total fluke, as his second to a sharp Minzaal in the Gimcrack showed him as a horse of talent, but between stamina and quality concerns and the draw, there’s little case for him.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
Chriselliam in 2012 at Santa Anita was the last foreign-based Juvenile Fillies Turf winner, following Flotilla in 2011. Chriselliam already had shown herself a real racehorse having won the Group 1 Fillies Mile.
Recent Europeans have run well in this race without winning, Last year, Daahyeh, who came out of the Rockfel Stakes, and Albigna, who won the Group 1 Marcel Boussac, finished, respectively, second and a troubled fourth. In 2017, September, with better racing luck, might have beaten Rushing Fall, and in 2015 at Keeneland, Alice Springs with a better start might have run down Catch a Glimpse. O’Brien trained both those fillies.
Mother Earth, O’Brien’s hope this year, has done nothing special during an active 2-year-old campaign, but none of four foreign-trained entrants have. Mother Earth (misidentified as Snowfall running the Fillies Mile in her most recent start) has raced seven times, her lone win in a minor straight-course sprint at Naas.
She ran well enough finishing third at Royal Ascot when a little cramped for space but had not progressed much before the Oct. 9 Fillies Mile. Twice in earlier races, Mother Earth was taken to the lead, wilting badly in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, and earlier efforts at sitting and finishing yielded modest runs. But something clicked in the Fillies Mile, where Mother Earth showed a sharper turn of foot than ever before, just losing a little momentum in the final uphill stages. Do not discount her.
Oodnadatta, who also comes from Ireland, is far less exposed than Mother Earth. She went straight to the front and never was threatened winning around a left-handed turn in her Leopardstown debut, a maiden race that included several talented fillies. She was dull from start to finish second out, but performed many lengths better than that finishing a fine third behind two of the better European fillies this year in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes. Oodnadatta still seems a work in progress and will need her best race yet to factor.
Miss Amulet has been a busy girl, racing seven times while showing vast improvement through the season. Her five-furlong race at Down Royal came around a very mild and short bend; otherwise it has been nothing but straight-course sprints. The filly she beat winning the Lowther Stakes, Sacred, was second behind Campanelle in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot, and that good form carried into the Group 1 Cheveley Park. Breaking like a rocket, Miss Amulet had a two-length lead in a matter of strides, only to lose position during the middle stages before coming again for second. She has speed, but European fillies coming out of five- and six-furlong straight-course sprints are best avoided in this race.
Nazuna has gone down a different path, racing between 6 1/2 and seven furlongs in her four starts, none especially eye-catching. She did find some traffic in her debut, though she was headstrong in both that start and her second race before settling down her last two. She exits her best performance, a second to Isabella Giles in the straight-course Rockfel, though Isabella Giles returned with a clunker in the Cheveley Park.
Then there is the best of the overseas horses, the one based in America with Wesley Ward, Campanelle. Her Ascot showing, where she raced mainly by herself, away from the main pack of horses, was very good, her Prix Morny over a straight six furlongs even better. By the final furlong in France, Campanelle had mastered the soft ground, pulling smartly away from a solid field. If she stays the mile – decent chance of that – she wins.
Juvenile Turf Sprint
Here are the European finishes in the two Juvenile Turf Sprints:
2018 – 3, 4 ,6, 8, 9, 11
2019 – 5, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12
Only three start Friday, and as with the Turf Sprint, European horses generally are sprinting down straight courses, and a turning race like this can prove their undoing.
Mighty Gurkha, who has drawn the rail, has run turns well over all-weather tracks in England while mixing fast starts with slow. In his debut win and in his race at Newbury, he left quickly, making the early lead, but, presumably because he sweated up prior to the Newbury start, trainer Archie Watson tried putting a hood on him at Deauville for the Prix de Cabourg. Mighty Gurkha should’ve been declared a non-starter there; the jockey and assistant starter were trying to yank off the hood after the gate opened, Mighty Gurkha was left standing in his stall as the rest of the field broke. He began several lengths last and ran remarkably well to stick his head in front with a furlong remaining.
His two wins came in the all-weather starts and, back on turf, he did little running last out in a 27-horse, straight-course race at Newmarket. He’s liable to be overwhelmed by faster horses to his outside and beat a retreat back to England.
Lipizzaner, like many O’Brien 2-year-olds, has been busily campaigned, and though he was precocious enough to start early, belated improvement has come in the autumn. He’s a larger, less handy colt than the two other Euros, and his best performance – his last race – came over a straight six furlongs on a heavy, laboring Doncaster course, circumstances far different than Friday’s. He seems unlikely to contend.
The best chance in this trio lies with Ubettabelieveit, a moderate-sized colt with a generous action and plenty of competitive fire. He threw a stinker in the Gimcrack Stakes, but that race was run in driving rain and his trainer, Nigel Tinkler, described the course (rated good in our past performances) as “horrific.”
Ubettabelieveit ran closer to the pace that day than in his other three starts, and Tinkler said he was much too keen, jockey Oisin Murphy wrapping up on the colt after defeat became obvious. Ubettabelieveit returned with a game win Sept. 11 at Doncaster over the capable filly Sacred, and while he has no experience around a turn, and will be back in the pack early, he appears to be athletic enough to adapt and has a strong turn of foot that could propel him to a high placing.