England: Course could be lone issue for Kalpana in Yorkshire Oaks

Were the Yorkshire Oaks run at Ascot, the outcome would be all but a foregone conclusion, but the Ascot-loving mare Kalpana makes her first start at York Racecourse on Thursday as the heavy favorite to win the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks.

Five-year-old Kalpana, make no mistake, has been a fabulous mare nearly everywhere she has gone. Her 17-8-6-2 record attests to that, with her lone misfire a seventh last fall racing over very soft ground in the Arc. But at Ascot, she’s been an absolute terror.

Third in the Group 2 Ribblesdale at the 2024 Royal Ascot meeting, Kalpana the last two years has captured the Group 1 Fillies and Mares on the British Champions card in October at Ascot. She finished a strong second last summer in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth, beaten only by Calandagan, rated the world’s best horse during 2025. And last month, she took down Calandagan winning the King George by 1 1/2 lengths.

Eight older fillies and mares oppose her in Thursday’s 1 1/2-mile contest, which is part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge series, among them Minnie Hauk, smashing winner of this race as a sophomore filly last year but who's not the same horse so far this year at age 4.

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Awaiting Kalpana is an unfamiliar, left-handed, wide, and flat racecourse with a homestretch of about five furlongs. None of this should trouble Kalpana, a Juddmonte homebred trained by Andrew Balding and ridden Thursday, as usual, by Colin Keane. Tactically versatile, Kalpana has a long, steady run, and clearly stays a mile-and-a-half, and if she runs her race, she’ll almost certainly win the Yorkshire Oaks.

Unless, that is, Minnie Hauk regains her star form from last summer. She won the Oaks at Epsom and the Irish Oaks before whipping older rivals in the Yorkshire Oaks, going on to lose the Arc by a mere head but never regaining that form. Minnie Hauk checked in a no-excuses sixth as the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Turf and returned this season a lesser racehorse than last year.

After a workmanlike comeback victory in Group 2 competition, Minnie Hauk was a bland fifth as the favorite in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, and her runner-up finish behind Ombudsman in the Prince of Wales at Ascot fell into the “somebody had to run second” category. Defeated there by four lengths, Minie Hauk finished 18 lengths behind Kalpana in the King George.

Nonetheless, Minnie Hauk was a warm second choice, at about 7-2, with British bookmakers on Tuesday, though at 5-1, lightly raced 3-year-old filly Johanna Walsh offers better value as an upset candidate.

A later-developing filly trained by Joseph O’Brien, Johanna Walsh scored a third-start maiden win in May and went straight into the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot, where she looked a sure winner a furlong out. Instead, either through lack of focus or because she had not quite reached peak race fitness, Johanna Walsh was nipped on the wire by Earth Shot.

Earth Shot, a 20-1 chance Thursday at York, might have regressed in the Irish Oaks, finishing sixth, but Johanna Walsh absolutely progressed, taking a significant step forward from her Ribblesdale. With a quarter-mile of the 1 1/2-mile contest remaining, Johanna Walsh, responding to very subtle cues from regular rider Dylan Browne McMonagale, inhaled the four horses in front of her, opened a big lead, and won by 4 1/2 lengths with something still in her tank. She could go at least a half-notch better and threaten Kalpana, who gives her young rival nine pounds.

Lowther

The Thursday card includes a second Breeders’ Cup Challenge race, the six-furlong, straight-course Lowther for 2-year-old fillies. While Libertango was favored on Tuesday, Star of State might be worth a bet.

Libertango beat 24 foes winning the Albany at Royal Ascot but had no excuse and was lucky to just hold second last out in the Group 2 Duchess of Cambridge. That race’s winner, Senorita Bonita, looks quite talented – but so does Star of State.

Star of State debuted at Fairyhouse, where she was given a schooling sort of trip, held up behind cover until a furlong remained in a six-furlong maiden race. Livenka, who came back to win a Naas stakes race and runs in the Lowther, went wire to wire at Fairyhouse, and while Star of State finished second by 1 1/2 lenghts, she was flying at the finish and would have won in another five jumps.

Allowed to set the pace in her second start, a Leopardstown maiden on July 16, Star of State quickened like a good thing after turning for home, winning by 11 lengths in a performance as visually impressive as it was on paper.

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