Enable looking strong for Arc three-peat bid

Maybe it will rain, literally, on Enable’s parade, but there is no dampening the worldwide excitement focused on Longchamp, where Enable on Sunday will try to become the first three-time winner of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

The Longchamp course as of Friday was listed as soft, and rain was forecast to continue falling through the weekend. The ground isn’t likely to become radically heavy but will have plenty of give to it. Regardless, it’s hard not giving in to the notion that Enable will succeed Sunday where Treve, the last horse with a chance at an Arc three-peat, failed in 2015.

Treve as a 5-year-old never looked like the same horse she’d been at 3 and 4, but Enable, after the start of her campaign was delayed, has sparkled. She has won the Group 1 Eclipse over 10 furlongs in her seasonal bow, wore down the high-class Crystal Ocean after an epic battle going 12 furlongs in the Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, and in the Yorkshire Oaks, her Arc tune-up, she made the excellent filly (and fellow Arc runner) Magical look fairly ordinary in a dominant 2 3/4-length victory.

Enable’s last run over going officially termed soft came in the 2018 Arc, where she had multiple excuses for losing but desperately held on to defeat 3-year-old filly Sea of Class. Enable came right back a month later and became the first horse to win the Arc and the Breeders’ Cup Turf in the same year, shrugging off a challenge from Magical to win comfortably. The turf at Churchill Downs that day was labeled good, but that designation misrepresented the amount of moisture in the ground.

The $5,490,000 Arc, run around right-handed bends over 1 1/2 miles, drew 11 other entrants, five of whom have a chance to win if Enable fails to show her best, a scenario that seems unlikely. Jockey Frankie Dettori will break his star mount from post 9, not a bad draw at all, and Enable’s tactical versatility gives Dettori plenty of options – not that he needs to overcomplicate things. Enable not only is the best horse in this race but the best horse in the world, and John Gosden, who trains the mare for breeder Khalid Abdullah, has pulled all the right strings managing a mare who has won 13 of 14 starts, 10 at the Group or Grade 1 level.

The quintet of plausible challengers includes Magical as well as Waldgeist, Ghaiyyath, and, most prominently, the 3-year-old colts Sottsass and Japan.

Waldgeist finished fourth in the 2018 Arc but from his appearance winning the Prix Foy last month and in the opinion of trainer Andre Fabre, Waldgeist comes into this race a better horse than a year ago – better, but not good enough. Ghaiyyath, a 4-year-old Godolphin colt, would be very interesting over fast, firm going Sunday, and his 14-length win in the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Baden over 1 1/2 miles was a tour de force. But Ghaiyyath’s stubbed his toe once this year, the one time he raced over softer going, and course conditions Sunday might blunt his effectiveness.

Japan, trained by Aidan O’Brien, has won over a multitude of course conditions, including heavy ground, and has the profile of a later-developing colt who could hit a peak this weekend. Japan finished fourth in the Dante, his seasonal debut, but has done little wrong since, winning three times, twice at the Group 1 level, after a respectable third in the Derby at Epsom. Japan defeated Crystal Ocean in the International Stakes, a mark of his high class, and was an Arc course and distance winner 10 weeks ago in the Grand Prix de Paris.

Both Japan and Sottsass get three pounds from Enable (and will need it), and Sottsass, especially, could have untapped reserves. Campaigned by Peter Brant’s White Birch Farm, Sottsass has been given a light campaign by trainer Jean-Claude Rouget to keep him fresh for the Arc. Sottsass won the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) in June and didn’t race again until the Prix Niel last month, where he overcame a traffic-filled trip to win far more authoritatively than his 1 1/4-length margin of victory suggests. That start should have Sottsass set to improve in the Arc. Will it be enough to topple Enable? Probably not.

Post time for the big race is 10:05 a.m. Eastern. Don’t miss it.