Elle Z a threat on turf or dirt in Menard
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLE
Weather could prove the key handicapping element when it comes to the $75,000 Nelson Menard Memorial Stakes on Saturday at Fair Grounds.
There was a chance of rain Thursday into Friday in New Orleans, and on Saturday the National Weather Service is calling for a 70 percent chance of showers. And if the forecast holds, the Menard, carded for about 5 1/2 furlongs on turf, could wind up on dirt.
Fair Grounds so far this racing season has been very fortunate with regard to wet weather and turf racing: There have been 72 turf races so far this meet compared to 52 during a similar period last season.
The Menard, restricted to fillies and mares, drew eight entrants, most capable of holding form on the main track. One possible exception is the race’s lone shipper, Payntdembluesaway, a 6-year-old whose 13 starts all have come on grass. Based in Florida with trainer Jane Cibelli (whose two career Fair Grounds starters each finished second), Payntdembluesaway comes off a peak performance, a four-length win in a $90,000 Claiming Crown turf sprint at Gulfstream Park that she won by four lengths with a career-best 89 Beyer.
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Payntdembluesaway is one of several entrants who want to race forwardly, none more so than Elle Z, who finished second in the 2021 Menard but won two other Fair Grounds stakes – one each on turf and dirt – during the 2020-21 season.
Elle Z, trained by Chris Hartman, always has run well at Fair Grounds and exits a very tough nose loss Dec. 4 in the Pan Zareta, where she fought off pace rivals and led to deep stretch, nipped at the wire by Brooke Marie, who was not entered in the Menard. The only three sub-par showings from Elle Z in her last 10 starts came in races where she couldn’t use Lasix, and the anti-bleeder medication is permitted in the Menard.
The other two horses coming out of the Pan Zareta are Elle’s Town, who finished fourth, and Yes It’s Ginger, whose eighth-place finish seemed to confirm the sense she has lost a step or two off her peak form.
Time Limit, drawn on the rail, has recent contending performances over the Oaklawn dirt track and the Del Mar turf, where she was a fine second in the Sen. Ken Maddy Stakes. Two caveats: Time Limit is back on less than three weeks’ rest, and trainer Mike Maker has gone winless with his first 17 starters this Fair Grounds meet.
Beyond Mybudget has made all 10 of her starts at Woodbine, nine of them on the synthetic surface there, her lone turf try coming over 1 1/4 miles. Trained by Mark Casse, the stalking and closing tactics she regularly employs could fit the race flow but she looks slightly slow to be considered a real win threat.
Ain’t No Elmers and She Can’t Sing aren’t hapless on grass but their best win chance likely comes with a rain-off onto dirt. Both mares struggle to hold top form but each has produced a dirt race strong enough to win the Menard should it wind up on the main track.