Eight Belles is within Union Strike's comfort zone

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Her form says she might well be a superior one-turn horse. Owner and trainer Mick Ruis says he is not giving up on route racing. Either way, plenty of handicappers will look at the past performances for the Grade 2, $200,000 Eight Belles Stakes on Friday at Churchill Downs and say that Union Strike is the most likely winner.

There are fourteen horses in the Eight Belles, a seven-furlong dirt race for 3-year-old fillies. Union Strike figures to go favored, with the unbeaten Todd Pletcher-trained Ghalia the likely second choice, but the odds gap back to the third betting choice could be considerable.

The very real prospect of a wet track complicates the outlook. Only four of the fillies have raced over a surface labeled something other than fast, and neither of the favorites is among that group.

Eight Belles, Race 8

KEY CONTENDERS

Union Strike, by Union Rags

Last 3 Beyers: 90-75-63

◗ Looked like she could emerge as Southern California’s leading 2-year-old filly after winning the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante as a maiden making her second start. But Union Strike then missed time, had a really poor trip in finishing sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and finished her season with a flat fifth in the Group 1 Starlet.

“She had a little bit of sore shins,” said Ruis, who took over the filly’s training from his daughter, Shelbe. “I just gave her time over the winter and let her get good.”

◗ Union Strike returned to action April 9 in the Santa Paula Stakes and looked like the filly from last summer at Del Mar, coming home strongly to win that 6 1/2-furlong race going away with a career-best 90 Beyer Speed Figure.

◗ Union Strike is 3-2-1-0 in one-turn races and has finished fifth and sixth in her routes, but Ruis isn’t giving up.

“I think eventually she’ll be a two-turn horse,” he said. “We’re taking little steps with her right now. We hope she can run good here and go to the Acorn over one mile at Belmont.”

Ghalia, by Medaglia d’Oro

Last 3 Beyers: 72-80-79

◗ Won the Sunland Oaks around two turns after scoring one-turn wins in her first two starts at Gulfstream Park, but Pletcher said he felt more comfortable trying the seven-furlong Eight Belles than the nine-furlong Kentucky Oaks.

“She missed the break that day, got in behind horses, got a little headstrong, but had no choice other than getting held up, and I think that aided her in getting the distance,” Pletcher said. “I’m not sure if she gets a free run she’ll stay that far.”

◗ Ghalia led in her first two starts and looks like a pace factor.

Cajun Delta Dawn, by Kantharos

Last 3 Beyers: 73-66-72

◗ Will benefit from turning back from a pair of two-turn races at the end of her 2-year-old season to a one-turn sprint to start her 3-year-old campaign, trainer David Fawkes said.

◗ Easily has the most wet-track experience, going 4-3-0-0 on such surfaces.

Lovely Bernadette, by Wilburn

Last 3 Beyers: 51-69-68

◗ This 30-1 shot is worth considering, based on her strong Churchill form and her career-best 81 Beyer earned over a muddy strip here last fall.