Early pace the key to Woodward

SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. – First, Will Take Charge defected. Then, Palace Malice followed suit. Without two of the leading older males in training, Moreno’s chances in Saturday’s Grade 1, $600,000 Woodward Stakes at Saratoga were looking better and better.

Then came the post position draw and when Itsmyluckyday, second to Moreno in the Grade 1 Whitney four weeks ago, drew the rail. And the dynamics of the Woodward changed.

Already equipped for the first time with blinkers, Itsmyluckyday’s rail draw will likely force jockey Paco Lopez to use the horse early, thus not allowing Moreno a free run on the lead in the Woodward.

“We’re going to come away from there more affirmative than if we would have been someplace else,” said Eddie Plesa, trainer of Itsmyluckyday.

How Lopez handles Itsmyluckyday early seems to be the key to the Woodward. Moreno, who won the Whitney going gate to wire, figures to be sent to the lead by jockey Junior Alvarado from post 4.

“Do I want to sacrifice my horse?” Plesa said. “That’s where the jockey’s expertise comes in. They need to know how fast they are going. The key is pace. It’s like driving a car, except cars have speedometers and these guys don’t. They have to do it by touch and feel. Hopefully, touch and feel works.”

Plesa said he is equipping Itsmyluckyday with blinkers to keep him more focused. In the stretch of the Whitney, Itsmyluckyday veered in at the eighth pole and again at the sixteenth pole before attempting to close ground, finishing 1 1/4 lengths back of Moreno.

“Down the lane on a few occasions, he hasn’t been focused,” Plesa said. “He needs to be 100 percent.”

Moreno’s best races have come when he’s able to secure the early lead. Last year at 3, he won two races in front-running fashion, including the Grade 2 Dwyer. After a stutter-step start in the Whitney, Moreno made the front and kept on going.

“Itsmyluckyday closed a little bit of ground late, but that’s only because Moreno was so far in front down the lane he got to goofing around like he does,” said Eric Guillot, the trainer of Moreno. “If he would have come and collared him, [Moreno] would have dug back in like he’s famous for doing. If you watch the gallop-out in the Whitney, they could have gone around again and they wouldn’t have beaten him. I think he’s every bit as good as he was.”

Among the closers with the best chance to upset are Zivo and Norumbega.

Zivo, trained by Chad Brown, has won six consecutive races, including a three-length victory over Moreno in the Grade 2 Suburban at Belmont last out. He was intentionally held out of the Whitney to await this spot.

“I look at that as probably helping me here,” Brown said.

Norumbega, who won the Grade 2 Brooklyn two starts back at Belmont, is 2 for 2 at Saratoga, with both wins coming at 1 1/8 miles. Trainer Shug McGaughey is adding blinkers to Norumbega’s equipment.

“Hoping maybe he’ll be in the race a little bit better,” McGaughey said. “I battled with it a little bit. We breezed him a couple of times in them, he seemed to be fine. They’ll maybe keep him focused. I thought in the Suburban he got lost a little bit when the horses left him.”

The Woodward tops a 12-race card that includes the return of the two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan in the Grade 2 $250,000 Bernard Baruch and a matchup of 3-year-old fillies in the Grade 2 Prioress. The Woodward and the Grade 1 Forego will be shown live on NBC Sports Network from 6-7 p.m. Eastern.

Key contenders

Moreno (Last 3 Beyers: 109-96-87)

◗ Despite a 3-for 20-record, Moreno rates the likely favorite coming off a front-running score in the Whitney. He will undoubtedly set the early fractions under Junior Alvarado.

◗ Said a confident trainer Eric Guillot: “It’s quantum physics. Moreno is full of energy and the others don’t have any matter.”

Itsmyluckyday (Last 3 Beyers: 107-100-90)

◗ A five-time stakes winner, Itsmyluckyday gets blinkers for the first time after running second to Moreno in the Grade 1 Whitney last out.

◗ He figures to take first crack at the speedy Moreno.

◗ DRF FORMULATOR FACT: Plesa is 12 for 95 the last five years when putting blinkers on a horse in a route race.

Zivo (Last 3 Beyers 100-96-97)

◗ Has won six consecutive races, including a three-length score over Moreno in the Grade 2 Suburban at Belmont Park on July 5.

◗ His last two victories have come when taking advantage of a quick early pace and rallying from last.

◗ DRF FORMULATOR FACT: Chad Brown is 1 for 13 in Grade 1 stakes with horses coming off layoffs of between 31 and 60 days. Zivo has had 56 days between starts.