Early furlongs key for No Distortion in Long Branch Stakes
The last two times No Distortion has made the early lead, he won easily, and he earned a career-best 95 Beyer Speed Figure for his 11 1/2-length romp last time out at Delaware Park. But breaking from the outside post over a track where he has finished a distant fourth in his two previous tries, No Distortion is no cinch to be in front early in Saturday’s $100,000 Long Branch Stakes at Monmouth Park.
In the two races between No Distortion’s maiden win at Fair Grounds in March and his win in a first-level optional $12,000 claimer on June 11, he failed to make the lead and lost, including his most recent appearance at Monmouth in May.
The Long Branch, a 1 1/16-mile race for 3-year-olds, drew a field of seven.
Based purely on class, Azar is dangerous. He was a Grade 2 winner last season and is two necks shy of being a two-time Grade 3 winner. But nine of his 10 starts have come on turf or Polytrack.
Although Azar did win his lone dirt start, which came at Gulfstream Park in February, he didn’t beat much. The only horse from that field to have subsequently won is fourth-place finisher Tasit, who won a first-level allowance on turf at Keeneland.
Azar, part of an uncoupled three-horse entry for trainer Todd Pletcher, comes off an eighth-place finish June 4 in the Grade 3 Pennine Ridge on the Belmont Park turf.
Long Branch, Race 9
KEY CONTENDERS
Azar, by Scat Daddy
Last 3 Beyers: 86-85-81
◗ He gets class relief after three consecutive appearances in graded stakes.
◗ Pletcher is just 2 for his last 13 (15 percent) with 3-year-olds switching from turf to dirt routes with purses of $60,000 or higher following layoffs of 31 to 60 days.
No Distortion, by Distorted Humor
Last 3 Beyers: 95-82-76
◗ Both of his wins have come when he made the lead, so jockey Gabriel Saez probably has no choice except to gun from the outside and hope he can outrun Tiz Long Gone, who breaks from post 2.
◗ Worked a bullet five furlongs in 1:00.20 on Monday.
Voluntario, by Hold Me Back
Last 3 Beyers: 86-92-95
◗ He could go favored if he runs here, but he’s cross-entered in Saturday’s $500,000 Dwyer at Belmont.
Someday Jones, by Smarty Jones
Last 3 Beyers: 88-82-89
◗ Hasn’t finished worse than second in five career starts and has been favored in his last four races.
◗ He won his last race, an allowance at Parx. The runner-up, Name Changer, returned to win an allowance for nonwinners of two with an 86 Beyer.
Tiz Long Gone, by Tizway
Last 3 Beyers: 79-77-61
◗ His Beyers are moving in the right direction, and he’s 2 for 2 in races beyond six furlongs, but he needs to run substantially faster to contend against this group.