Dunleavy: Laurel pick four play for Saturday, March 21

The Saturday card at Laurel includes four $100,000 stakes races, two for 3-year-olds and two for older horses.
Here is a pick four play for races 4-7.

The sequence comprises the 1 1/8-mile Private Terms for 3-year-olds; a first-level allowance race for older horses at 1 1/8 miles; the Caesar’s Wish, a one-turn mile for 3-year-old fillies; and the seven-furlong Conniver for Maryland-bred fillies and mares.

Although I’m not in love with the sequence, and wish the four stakes were run consecutively, I think there is the possibility of a reasonable pick four payout. I’ll used DRF Ticketmaker to put together a $51 play. All of the tickets are in 50-cent increments.

I’ll also stretch the sequence one race by playing a pick three on races 6-8. That sequence includes the Caesar’s Wish, Conniver, and the 1 1/8 Harrison Johnson Memorial for older horses.

:: Build your pick four ticket with DRF TicketMaker

Race 4

The Private Terms consists of four New York shippers and two local horses.

I will break a cardinal rule by using five of the six (Two A’s, two B’s, and one C) and leave Slick William (No. 4) out because I don’t want the ticket price to go any higher. Normally, I would never excluse a single horse from a part-wheel.

The “A” horses are NET GAIN (2) and BRIDGET’S BIG LUVY (6). For straight-bet purposes, I lean to Bridget’s Big Luvy because he has more speed and will be a better price.

Net Gain has been improving for Bill Mott and won a one-mile Aqueduct maiden race last time out. He closed resolutely in that race, and the extra furlong of the Private Terms works in his favor.

Bridget’s Big Luvy won a Belmont Park maiden race in October for trainer Jeremiah Engelhart, and in his lone start since finished a distant fifth in the Grade 3 Hutcheson at Gulfstream Park. Although this will be his first start beyond seven furlongs, he may be better cut out for distance races than sprints. I like that he adds blinkers today.

The “B” horses are BODHISATTVA (1) and COMBAT DIVER (5).

Bodhisattva, trained by Jose Corrales, ran very well to finish fourth, beaten a half-length, in a blanket finish in the Miracle Wood Stakes here Feb. 16. He was allowed to set a slow pace that day and I think Bridget’s Big Luvy will keep him honest here.

Combat Diver, trained by Gary Contessa, closed well in the Miracle Wood to finish second, beaten a nose. He rallied wide that day and may have been helped by the better outside footing on the frigid Presidents Day card. Combat Diver has since finished ninth in the Grade 3 Gotham.

I will throw in NOW WE ARE FREE (3) as a “C” runner. He hasn’t raced since finishing seventh in the Grade 3 Jerome on Jan. 3 for trainer Michelle Nevin but is a two-time winner at Laurel and will be a big price.

Race 5

This is not a strong allowance race. I’ll use three “A” horses and leave it at that.

The 92 Beyer Speed Figure HARLINGTON NIGHT (6) earned winning a restricted $16,000 claiming race for Scott Lake last out is higher than anyone else in this eight-horse field has ever run.

I will also use TUCKERS POINT (4) and CAUSEWORTHY (7).

Race 6

BY THE MOON (5) is strictly the horse to beat in the Caesar’s Wish. She had an excellent 2-year-old season, winning the Grade 1 Frizette and finishing second in the Grade 1 Spinaway.

In her 3-year-old debut, the Grade 2 Forward Gal at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 24, she made an eye-catching four-wide move on the far turn to open a clear lead in upper stretch. She then flattened out and finished fifth, which may be due to her jockey having moved too soon and because she may have needed the race after being given time off following her eighth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Trainer Michelle Nevin has worked her six times since that race and all systems should be go on Saturday.

Rather than single her, however, I will use LAKE SEBAGO (4) and GYPSY JUDY (7) as “B” horses.

Both Lake Sebago and Gypsy Judy come out of the Wide Country Stakes at Laurel on Feb. 16, a very cold day when the races were run over an outside-biased track. Lake Sebago, a two-time stakes winner at Laurel, did not fire her best shot that day, while Gypsy Judy had a perfect outside trip and won by 3 1/4 lengths. They are not pushovers.

Race 7

The Conniver, for statebred fillies and mares, has attracted a varied group.

PRINTASTICAT (6) is a 6-year-old mare, who has spent most of her career in the claiming ranks. She was claimed by trainer Claudio Gonzalez for $8,000 a year ago and has steadily improved. Ten for 43 in her career, she enters off three straight wins, two in $5,000 starter company and the other in a first-level allowance.

I will also use IF NOT FOR HER (2) as an “A” runner. She has been running well for trainer Mike Trombetta in second- and third-level optional-claiming company.

JOINESIN FOR JERRY (8) won a second-level optional-claiming race in her last start and makes the ticket as a “B” horse.

Pick three, races 6-8

I will use the aforementioned runners in the first two legs of this pick three, and PAGE MCKENNEY (1) and SOUPER LUCKY (2) as “A” horses in race 8, and TURCO BRAVO (4) as a “B” runner.

Souper Lucky figures to be a solid favorite in the Johnson Memorial based on the 110 Beyer he earned for winning a fourth-level optional-claiming race in the mud last time out.

Although he ran very well that day, he did receive a perfect setup. He tracked front-running Cerro early, took over entering the stretch and drew off to win easily. Nobody else in the field was ever a factor.

Page McKenney won the John B. Campbell in his last start and has turned into an extremely honest runner since being claimed by trainer Mary Eppler for $16,000 in July 2013. He has since won nine races and $420,000.

Turco Bravo is 10 for 38 in his career. Although he is winless in six races since being imported from his native Chile, he fits well at this level and is overdue for a victory.

Using $1 tickets, the cost is $25. (The scratch of Turco Bravo (No. 4) in race 8 reduces the cost of this play to $18.) I will also come back using only my “A” horses, which is an additional $4.

Race 6: A: By the Moon (5); B: Lake Sebago (4), Gypsy Judy (7)
Race 7: A: If Not for Her (2), Printasticat (6); B: Jonesin for Jerry (8)
Race 8: A: Page McKenney (1), Souper Lucky (2); B: Turco Bravo (4)
All “A” ticket: R6: By the Moon (5); R7: If Not for Her (2), Printasticat (6); R8: Page McKenney (1), Souper Lucky (2)

Pick four ticket, 50-cent wagers, races 4-7:

Pick three ticket, $1 wagers, races 6-8: