Dunleavy: How I'd play the Monmouth Oaks

The Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks on Saturday drew more talent than you will usually see in a $100,000 race. The entrants include Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Ria Antonia; the third-, and fourth-place runners from the Grade 2 Delaware Oaks – Aibhilin and Lady Paradime; and a promising filly making her two-turn and stakes debut, Cassatt.

Iowa Oaks winner Size and Delaware Oaks winner Joint Return have been scratched, leaving a field of eight.

Here are some thoughts, and a wager, on the 1 1/16-mile Oaks (updated 11 a.m. Saturday).

Let's start with Cassatt.

A big, gray daughter of Tapit whom owner Rick Porter paid $300,000 for at the 2012 Keeneland September yearling sale, she was an impressive, low Beyer Speed Figure (72) maiden winner at Fair Grounds in January.

Given time off due to tender shins after that race by trainer Larry Jones – who won the Monmouth Oaks each year from 2008-10 with Maren's Meadow, Just Jenda, and No Such Word – Cassatt resumed training at Delaware Park this summer. Her comeback allowance win at Delaware (July 16, 6th race) showed her promise, and the replay is well worth a look.

Off slowly, she looped the field while in hand on the far turn of the six-furlong race and then drew away to win by four lengths without being asked for her best. Again, the effort was more visually impressive than the 78 Beyer suggests.
Cassatt runs as if more distance will not be a problem for her. The Oaks is a big jump in class, however, and this race will serve as a good measuring stick of her potential.

It has been a long time between wins for Ria Antonia, and trainer Tom Amoss ships from Kentucky in the hope of getting her a "W."

Ria Antonia tried hard over a sloppy track in the Iowa Oaks and was making up ground on Size at the finish. Unfortunately for her, she raced in traffic on the backstretch, and her move was too late.

She has had four works in the six weeks since that race, including a bullet five furlongs July 29 at Churchill Downs, and a top performance should be expected as she makes her third start for Amoss.

ThistleDown-based jockey Jacob Radosevich, 21, will be in for the mount.

Formulator Fact: Amoss and Radosevich are 1 for 1 together. They won an allowance race at ThistleDown on July 23.

single sprint under her belt this year, she tracked the pace, took the lead, was passed by Fortune Pearl – who is pointing to the Alabama – and then was nipped by Joint Return for second.

Based at Parx with high-percentage trainer Cathal Lynch, she can be expected to improve Saturday while making her third start of the year. With quite a bit of speed in this race – Offlee Golden, Spring Included, and possibly Cassatt – Aibhilin's ability to stalk and pounce should prove effective. She is my top pick at 8-1 on the morning line.

Formulator Fact: Lynch is 40 for 156 (26 percent) with a $1.86 ROI over the past five years with horses making their third start after a layoff.

Lady Paradime finished fourth in the Delaware Oaks, beaten 1 1/2 lengths for third by Aibhilin. Her allowance wins at Aqueduct and Pimlico this spring were solid, and she is a sleeper in this field and should be considered in exactas and trifectas.

The field also includes Aqua Regia, who comes out of Untapable's Mother Goose win for Tom Albertrani; Saintly Joan, the winner of the Little Silver Stakes at this meet; Offlee Golden, who stretches out off three sprint stakes tries; and Spring Included, who exits an allowance win at Ellis Park.

The play:
$10 to win on Aibhilin (No. 6)
$2 exacta box of Ria Antonia (1), Cassatt (5), and Aibhilin (6) = $12 total
$1 exacta part wheel of Aibhilin (6) over Ria Antonia (1), Lady Paradime (3), and Cassatt (5) = $3 total
$3 exacta part wheel of Ria Antonia (1), Lady Paradime (3), and Cassatt (5) over Aibhilin (6) = $9 total
Total wager: $34