Dunleavy: Aqueduct pick four for Sunday, Dec. 20 - Updated

You will most likely not get rich playing the late pick four on races 6-9 at Aqueduct on Sunday but the fairly direct sequence has the potential to pay off well enough to make your handicapping efforts worthwhile.

I have updated this ticket from Saturday to reflect ROCK GARDEN (#13, 8-1) drawing in from the also eligibles in race 6, the scratch of COLONEL JUANTITA (#3, 3-1) in race 7, and the scratch of STEVIE’S MOONSHOT (#1, 5-2) in race 9.

Rock Garden is now a “B” horse. In race 9, MY FRIEND KEITH (#7, 5-1) was a “B” but is now an “A.”

The play originally cost $41, but is now $30. It singles CAPTAIN SERIOUS in race 8, and is structured so you can go to the “B” horses once. There are some additional tickets added to more heavily weight NOLO CONTENDERE in race 6 and JAI ALAI in race 9.

Race 6
This is a 5 1/2-furlong maiden race for New York-bred 2-year-old fillies.

Nolo Contendere (#2, 7-2) and FIRESTAR (#5, 6-1) met on July 9 at Belmont Park when making their career debuts. Firestar set the pace and finished third to Wonderment and Frosty Margarita. Nolo Contendere raced within striking distance but came up lacking in the stretch and finished fourth, a length behind Firestar.

Wonderment, in her lone start since, won the Lynnbrook Stakes on July 19. Frosty Margarita won her maiden next out and has since won the Key Cents Stakes. She has a 5-2-3-0 record and $195,000 in earnings. She races in the third at Aqueduct on Sunday, a division of the New York Stallion Stakes.

Nolo Contendere, trained by Rick Violette, has not raced since July 9 but has apparently been in training for most of that time. She has 12 works since and only one gap in the pattern. She did not work between Aug. 27 and Sept. 28.

Nolo Contendere’s recent drills have been sharp and include four bullet works since Oct. 11. She is based at Aqueduct and gets to race over her home track.

Although she lacked the needed punch in her debut, Nolo Contendere raced well enough to hint at her potential. She should come out running Sunday. I expect a sharp effort.

Firestar is still a maiden after five starts but is not without ability and is overdue to win. She stalked and then chased B Three home last time out to finish second, more than 10 lengths clear of third. B Three was making her second career start for Linda Rice and added blinkers for that race. Firestar may have waited too long before being sent after B Three. The turnback from seven furlongs to 5 1/2 furlongs should work to her benefit.

To make sure all the bases are covered, I also will use CLIPTHECOUPONANNIE (#1, 3-1), a first-time starter for Todd Pletcher who has been working in Florida but has been sent home to take advantage of her New York-bred status. Her works indicate she may be ready for a top try in her debut.

I also will use three “B” horses, LEADUSTOTHEBAR (#7, 5-1), a Rudy Rodriguez first-timer; FREUDSALM (#9, 12-1), who has speed and will be making her first start for Chris Englehart after having raced three times for Terri Pompay; and Rock Garden, who is trained by the currently hot Gary Contessa and who has good speed.

Race 7
This is a $16,000 claiming race for fillies and mares at six furlongs. I don’t have a strong opinion in this eight-horse field. I am going to use three “A’s” and one “B” and try to stay alive.

STARSHIP PLEASANT (#2, 7-2) is dropping a notch for trainer Jason Servis after finishing third as a 6-5 favorite. The muddy track may have been a factor.

SALUDA (#4, 4-1) did not run up to expectations when Bruce Levine sent her to Finger Lakes for a statebred allowance last time out.

BRIDGETTA (7, 6-1) was claimed for $12,500 by David Jacobson last out and adds blinkers. Expect her to gun for the lead.

The “B” runner is SAHARAN SERENADE (#8, 6-1), who is dropping from a fourth-place finish in a statebred $25,000 claiming race.

Race 8
CAPTAIN SERIOUS (#5, 1-1) will be making his third start off a layoff and is facing easier company in this high-level optional sprint that is open to $100,000 claimers.

Captain Serious has been down along the inside in his last two starts and benefits from drawing the outside post in this five-horse field.

Although he tired late, he raced better in the Fall Highweight than it appears on his running line. He should be tough to beat here.

Race 9
The pick four ends with a $14,000 claiming race at six furlongs for horses who have never won two races.

I thought Jai Alai (#2, 3-1) had a good shot to beat expected favorite Stevie’s Moonshot, who is now scratched. I was going to use both as “A” runners. While Jai Alai’s status is stronger now, I am hesitant to single him and have upgraded My Friend Keith from a “B” to an “A.”

Jai Alai lagged too far back in the mud last time out and then finished with a belated bid to be fourth behind an eight-length winner.

Danny Gargan claimed Jai Alai for $25,000 out of that race. He has worked him twice, drops him in class, and stretches him out to two turns. In the last two years, Gargan is 9 for 47 (19 percent) with an ROI of $2.11 with horses he claimed in their prior start.

My Friend Keith will be making his first start for Chris Englehart after being trained by Bill Mott. He has made his last eight starts on turf and drops from $25,000 to $14,000.

The tickets

The main tickets are $21.

Main: 1-2-5/2-4-7/5/2-7 - $9
B’s in race 6: 7-9-13/2-4-7/5/2-7 - $9
B in race 7: 1-2-5/8/5/2-7 - $3

I will add the following tickets:
Singling Nolo Contendere in race 6: 2/2-4-7/5/2-7 - $3
Singling Jai Alai in race 9: 1-2-5/2-4-7/5/2 - $4.50
Singling both Nolo Contendere and Jai Alai: 2/2-4-7/5/2 - $1.50

Total cost: $30