Dubai World Cup card analysis and graded entries
There are two things to remember about the dirt course at Nad Al Sheba, where the Emirates Racing Association's $15 million Dubai World Cup card will be run on Saturday night (Saturday morning in the U.S.).
One is that it was made to resemble that of Churchill Downs so that Godolphin horses might become acquainted with the surface for the Kentucky Derby. Second, and more importantly, its stretch is 2 1/2 furlongs long. This gives stayers and closers a better chance than they might have on American tracks with short stretches.
Remember, too, that the 6-furlong Dubai Golden Shaheen is run on a straight course. If one side of the draw is packed with speed, the winner is likely to come from that side. Jockeys inexperienced with straight courses must also beware of moving too soon, as Tyler Baze did last year, probably costing Avanzado the victory.
Godolphin Mile
During looks like an international good thing here. Trained by Bob Baffert, who has won the Dubai World Cup with Silver Charm and Captain Steve, he is a miler born and bred and looks good enough to hold off defending champ Firebreak, who just held off 2002 winner Grey Memo last year. During is surely superior to Grey Memo, thus his selection is made in the utmost confidence, especially as Firebreak has not run since December. The frequently disappointing Inamorato should plod on for third, but the others all look outclassed.
NAS 2 - GODOLPHIN MILE (Group 2) - Probable Post 8:40 a.m. EST
1 mile. 4-year-olds & up. Purse $1,000,000
| NO | PP | HORSE | RIDER | WT. | COMMENTS | LINE |
| 4 | 1 | During | J D Bailey | 126 | Class of field for 2x Dubai World Cup-winning trainer | 2-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Firebreak | L Dettori | 126 | Godolphin will have defending champ ready | 3-1 |
| 8 | 6 | Inamorato | K McEvoy | 126 | Always finds one or two better | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Conflict | B Doyle | 126 | Sharp local veteran won this in 2000 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Estimraar | G Hind | 126 | 3rd last year, looked dull in prep off one-year absence | 12-1 |
| 1 | 7 | Cherry Pickings | T E Durcan | 126 | Has improved under leading UAE trainer Al Kurdi | 12-1 |
| 6 | 3 | Excessivepleasure | J K Court | 126 | Not off last two 1 | 2-1 |
| 9 | 4 | Tropical Star | R Mullen | 126 | Likes the course | 10-1 |
| 3 | 9 | D'Anjou | M J Kinane | 126 | Last was dull; makes dirt debut | 20-1 |
UAE Derby
Decidedly not a Kentucky Derby prep this year, it may be the card's best betting race. Southern Hemisphere 3-year-olds have been entered in abundance, the best of them perhaps Little Jim, an Argentine Group 1 winner on dirt who won the UAE 2000 Guineas and who was a bit unlucky when third last time behind Chilean-bred Petit Paris in the Al Bastikiya. The selection, however, is Ascertain, a three-time winner in England on the Lingfield dirt track. His 108 compares favorably with a number of promising European classic candidates. He will be saddled one last time by Nick Littmoden before moving on to Niall O'Callaghan, who sees him as an Illinois Derby and Pennsylvania Derby type. Jack Sullivan, second in the UAE 2000 Guineas, should not be overlooked.
NAS 3 - UAE DERBY (Group 2) - Probable Post 9:20 a.m. EST
1 1/8 miles. 3-year-olds. Purse $2,000,000
| NO | PP | HORSE | RIDER | WT. | COMMENTS | LINE |
| 5 | 2 | Ascertain | E Ahern | 121 | British dirt specialist on his way to U.S. | 10-1 |
| 1 | 9 | Little Jim | T E Durcan | 130 | Better than latest when he had trouble | 3-1 |
| 7 | 4 | Jack Sullivan | M J Kinane | 121 | Ahead of Rosencrans, Lingfield listed winner on Sat. | 5-1 |
| 3 | 7 | Petit Paris | J D Bailey | 130 | Wins this with repeat of last | 3-1 |
| 6 | 1 | Great Exhibition | L Dettori | 121 | 1 1/4l behind Master David;Godolphin's mdn Derby hope | 6-1 |
| 2 | 3 | Lundy's Liability | W Marwing | 130 | One-paced colt may prefer turf | 6-1 |
| 8 | 6 | Menhoubah | A Solis | 118 | Nice filly must be better than UAE Oaks 3rd | 14-1 |
| 9 | 8 | Tamarillo | G Hind | 118 | UAE Oaks winner facing much tougher | 14-1 |
| 4 | 5 | Festive Style | R L Moore | 126 | UAE Oaks runner-up appears up against it | 16-1 |
Dubai Sheema Classic
This is a tight fit between a pair of French mile and a half types in Polish Summer and Fair Mix. Polish Summer rates a slight edge, and his appearance marks the debut of the trainer-jockey team of Andre Fabre and Gary Stevens. Polish Summer possesses a turn of foot, but Stevens must beware of his tendency to lug in late. He beat Bright Sky in his prep and wins this with a repeat of his very good second in the Hong Kong Vase, in which he had Warrsan back in third with Fair Mix fifth. Fair Mix won a course and distance prep for this and should hold on for second from Warrsan. Hard Buck would have to run his best race to crack the first three.
NAS 4 - DUBAI SHEEMA CLASSIC (Group 1) - Probable Post 10:10 a.m. EST
1 1/2 miles (Turf). 4-year-olds & up. Purse $2,000,000
| NO | PP | HORSE | RIDER | WT. | COMMENTS | LINE |
| 9 | 6 | Polish Summer | G L Stevens | 123 | Edge over Fair Mix; debut for new Fabre/Stevens team | 4-1 |
| 3 | 12 | Fair Mix | O Peslier | 123 | Course & distance winner would be no surprise | 3-1 |
| 13 | 9 | Warrsan | M J Kinane | 123 | Springtime horse should be right there | 6-1 |
| 6 | 10 | Hard Buck | J R Velazquez | 123 | Prepped nicely at Gulfstream; facing much tougher | 8-1 |
| 11 | 2 | Razkalla | T E Durcan | 123 | Last says he won't be too far away | 14-1 |
| 7 | 4 | Lunar Sovereign | L Dettori | 123 | Decent seasonal debut behind Fair Mix | 8-1 |
| 4 | 13 | Gorylla | A Mota | 123 | Brazilian import won Argentina's best race | 25-1 |
| 5 | 8 | Grand Ekinoks | A Solis | 123 | Turk was 5th in last year's tougher edition | 15-1 |
| 8 | 11 | Martaline | J D Bailey | 123 | Fabre's second string prefers longer | 15-1 |
| 2 | 3 | Delsarte | K McEvoy | 123 | Improving; makes Godolphin debut off 7-mth absence | 15-1 |
| 10 | 1 | Rawyaan | R Hills | 123 | One of the outsiders | 25-1 |
| 1 | 5 | Compton Bolter | E Ahern | 123 | A listed race type at best | 25-1 |
| 12 | 7 | Scott's View | S Chin | 123 | Handicapper was well behind Fair Mix in latest | 30-1 |
Dubai Golden Shaheen
American invaders have won three of the last four runnings of this race. It should be more of the same this time with favored Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Cajun Beat taking the prize. He will benefit from an 11-pound weight shift to his advantage over Alke, who beat him last time in the Deputy Minister Handicap, as well as from the services of Jerry Bailey, who is experienced over straight courses. Pure American speed should carry the day but longshot players might look to Meiner Select, a consistent Japanese sprinter. Hong Kong invader Multidandy is a threat to crack the first three.
NAS 5 - DUBAI GOLDEN SHAHEEN (Group 1) - Probable Post 10:50 a.m. EST
6 furlongs. 3-year-olds & up. Purse $2,000,000
| NO | PP | HORSE | RIDER | WT. | COMMENTS | LINE |
| 2 | 3 | Cajun Beat | J D Bailey | 126 | BC Sprint winner profits from 11-lb weight shift w/Alke | 3-2 |
| 1 | 12 | Alke | J R Velazquez | 126 | Can surprise again if he pounces late | 5-1 |
| 7 | 11 | Meiner Select | Y Take | 126 | Consistent Japanese gets acid test; goes for Take | 6-1 |
| 8 | 1 | Multidandy | F Coetzee | 126 | Beaten in last by world's best turf sprinter; prefers dirt | 8-1 |
| 9 | 10 | Our New Recruit | A Solis | 126 | Could be running late; jock won this with Big Jag | 14-1 |
| 11 | 5 | Tour of the Cat | J K Court | 126 | Back on dirt but in tough | 20-1 |
| 10 | 7 | State City | L Dettori | 126 | Godolphin's defending champ has been absent | 8-1 |
| 4 | 9 | Conroy | G L Stevens | 126 | Won same prep last year before flopping in this | 20-1 |
| 3 | 6 | Conceal | R Hills | 126 | Should beat bottom three confirmed turfers | 30-1 |
| 6 | 8 | Feet So Fast | T E Durcan | 126 | Has shown decided preference fo r turf | 20-1 |
| 12 | 4 | Tsigane | D R Flores | 126 | Dirt debut; Canani hoping for gypsy miracle | 20-1 |
| 5 | 2 | Dantana | K McEvoy | 126 | Aussie has not handled switch to dirt | 30-1 |
Dubai Duty Free
A good betting race even with the absence of Godolphin's Vespone, who goes instead in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Sha Tin on April 25. Bright Sky has been pointed to this race since November. The 2002 French Oaks winner beat subsequent Prix Jacques le Marois and Breeders' Cup Mile winner Six Perfections in the one-mile Prix d'Astarte in her last win in August. She was misplaced in the Breeders' Cup Turf and inconvenienced by soft ground when third in the Prix de l'Opera and second three weeks ago to Sheema Classic selection Polish Summer in the Prix Exbury. She will have the ground and distance to which she is best suited and should take the measure of the excellent South African trainer Michael de Kock's hot Surveyor and the improving ex-de Kock Crimson Palace, a filly now with Godolphin who is the choice of Frankie Dettori over 2000 Guineas winner Refuse to Bend. Dermot Weld, always dangerous with invaders, could surprise with the improving Evolving Tactics.
NAS 6 - DUBAI DUTY FREE - Probable Post 11:30 a.m. EST
about 1 1/8 miles (Turf). 4-year-olds & up. Purse $2,000,000
| NO | PP | HORSE | RIDER | WT. | COMMENTS | LINE |
| 10 | 11 | Bright Sky | D Boeuf | 121 | Loves firm ground; properly placed for grand finale | 5-2 |
| 9 | 5 | Surveyor | K Shea | 126 | Trainer/rider won w/Ipi Tombe last year; dangerous | 5-1 |
| 11 | 2 | Crimson Palace | L Dettori | 121 | Lightly raced Godolphin mare whipped males here | 4-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Evolving Tactics | P J Smullen | 126 | Improving sort will be running late | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Right Approach | W Marwing | 126 | De Kock's 2nd string holds decision over Surveyor | 10-1 |
| 1 | 10 | Checkit | T E Durcan | 126 | Has been hinting at better | >15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sarafan | G L Stevens | 126 | Needed last but facing much tougher here | 12-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Paolini | E Pedroza | 126 | 2nd last year off shorter layoff; may need one | 8-1 |
| 6 | 3 | Refuse To Bend | K McEvoy | 126 | 2000 Guineas winner makes debut for Godolphin | 12-1 |
| 4 | 6 | Nayyir | M J Kinane | 126 | Inconsistent type doesn't run well fresh | 20-1 |
| 3 | 9 | Martillo | W Mongil | 126 | Muscle-bound colt has failed twice in this company | 30-1 |
Foreign trainers are justly criticized for bringing horses to the Kentucky Derby off just one prep race while facing Americans who have had between three and five preps. That is one of the main reasons the selection here is Victory Moon. Trained by de Kock, Victory Moon has been in Dubai all winter and has run three times, winning Rounds 2 and 3 of the Maktoum Challenge. He has won five of his seven starts at Nad Al Sheba and holds a conditioning edge over Pleasantly Perfect, Fleetstreet Dancer, and Medaglia d'Oro - each with just one prep. Beware using Medaglia d'Oro in the exotics as he will have difficulty staying Nad Al Sheba's stamina-testing 10 furlongs, especially as he has drawn wide in eleven. Admire Don, 2-for-2 at the distance, is a serious Japanese challenger who could sneak in for third behind Pleasantly Perfect, the one Yank who will stay. Another Japanese invader, Silent Deal, could be the longshot special.
Seventh RaceProbable Post 12:20 p.m. est
DUBAI WORLD CUP (Group 1)
1 1/4 miles. 4-year-olds & up. Purse $6,000,000
| NO | PP | HORSE | RIDER | WT. | COMMENTS | LINE |
| 12 | 9 | Victory Moon | W Marwing | 126 | De Kock's course specialist can upset Yanks | 4-1 |
| 8 | 7 | Pleasantly Perfect | A Solis | 126 | Best 10f horse in the USA | 5-2 |
| 1 | 3 | Admire Don | K Ando | 126 | Has 2 Japanese G1 wins at the distance by combined 10l | 8-1 |
| 7 | 11 | Medaglia d'Oro | J D Bailey | 126 | Won't stay 1 1/4m at this level; drew wide | 2-1 |
| 4 | 10 | Fleetstreet Dancer | J K Court | 126 | Beat Admire Don in the slop in Tokyo | 10-1 |
| 3 | 1 | Domestic Dispute | G L Stevens | 126 | Will be closer with further improvement off last | 12-1 |
| 5 | 8 | Grand Hombre | L Dettori | 126 | Godolphin runner not in same league as Yanks | 25-1 |
| 10 | 6 | Silent Deal | Y Take | 126 | Lightly raced Japanese colt may be better than this | 25-1 |
| 2 | 4 | Dinyeper | H L Karatas | 126 | Turk has taken to Nad Al Sheba but is facing tougher | 50-1 |
| 11 | 12 | State Shinto | T E Durcan | 126 | Has seen better days | 66-1 |
| 6 | 2 | King's Boy | M J Kinane | 126 | Arabian-trained stayer looks outclassed | 66-1 |
| 9 | 5 | Regent Bluff | Y Yoshida | 126 | Japanese veteran has never won at this distance | 66-1 |