DRF Weekend Gameplan for Oct. 24, 2020: Picks for Empire Classic, Hudson Handicap, and Ticonderoga Stakes

Closing day at Keeneland goes stakes-free, with all but one of the card’s grass races moved to dirt to preserve the course for the Breeders’ Cup. Laurel hosts the Maryland Million card, while there is a relatively minor single stakes at Santa Anita and a Triple Crown on the line at Woodbine. Belmont is all about New York-breds, and we’ll focus our attention there this week. The race of the program is the Mohawk, for older turf horses, but I solidly favor Somelikeithotbrown, who is a realistic 9-5 on the morning line, so I’ll price shop in three other spots.

Empire Classic

No horse in the Empire Classic has raced more during 2020 than Bankit, yet I really like the chances of this consistent 4-year-old coming back to a peak this start and popping at a fair price.

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Not every modern American Thoroughbred must be placed in bubble wrap for two months at a time before being wound up off works for a single race. There still are horses that do best being led to the post on a consistent basis, a practice that not so long ago was the rule, not the exception, of racehorse training. Trainers would use races – and absorb acceptable losses that were a means to an end – to manage their stock toward ultimate goals, and I believe that is how Bankit has been managed through the last couple months.

Despite being a son of sprinter/miler Central Banker, Bankit is not a sprinter/miler; he can do a mile in a pinch, but 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles, I believe, is his sweet spot. It’s through that lens one can view Bankit’s last three starts, in which he has performed decently while failing to hit a peak. The last time he ran a top race? That was his most recent start at Belmont, where he had to pick his way through traffic after breaking from post 1, running into Mr. Buff and Funny Guy at the top of their game.

Mr. Buff, clearly, has since lost his edge, and he’s drawn inside now with plenty of other pace coming down on him from the start. Funny Guy, in post 2, will take up the chase in earnest around the far turn and probably will have the lead at the stretch call. In the nine-furlong Albany last year at Saratoga, Funny Guy just held off Bankit, but this time, I expect Bankit – who, despite the busy schedule, has worked twice at Belmont since the Sept. 26 Ack Ack at Churchill – to run him down.

Hudson Handicap

Orlando Noda is a 22-percent trainer on the year. My finger isn’t on the pulse of New York racing, but I have the sense folks feel like that strike rate is fluky, but I like what I’ve seen from Noda, and my guess is he has T Loves a Fight all set to win the Hudson Handicap.

Look back at T Loves a Fight’s first two races of his current form cycle, which began in May after a four-month break. A starter allowance with a claiming option at Churchill, an open allowance race at Belmont – in both T Loves a Fight mainly just went through the motions. I think that was by design. As soon as Noda put T Loves a Fight in a more meaningful race, the Morrissey at Saratoga, the gelding jumped right back to his winter best – which was pretty good. The Tale of the Cat, three weeks after the Morrissey, was T’s bounce race, the Sept. 26 allowance his prep for the Hudson. Six and a half furlongs at Belmont with a nice outside draw? Sounds about perfect for a 6-year-old gelding who is well into the second strong phase of a fine career.

Ticonderoga

Myhartblongstodady is 7-5 on the morning line, and I have no quibble with that line. How much higher would her odds be, though, if her last Beyer Speed Figure had been, say, 87 rather than 90? Also, what stands out about the two post-long layoff Saratoga wins are the easy leads Myhartblongstodady was afforded. Yes, she made the most of them, but in the Ticonderoga, Short Pour can turn up the heat, and I’ll take her to upset this short field.

It’s important to note Short Pour came back from a November-to-June layoff with the best race of her life, showing she had meaningfully improved from age 3 to 4. Terrible trips interrupted her development pattern, but she overcame early trouble last out to easily beat New York-bred allowance rivals, and just might have another level to find Saturday.