DRF Plus Sunland Derby Analysis: March 23, 2014

With so much attention (and rightly so) going to the two Bafferts (MIDNIGHT HAWK, CHITU) and two Pletchers (COMMISSIONER, GLOBAL STRIKE), the up-and-coming BOURBONIZE may fall through the cracks on the board and be a most generous number. It also doesn’t figure to hurt that none of the ‘big’ guys in here will have a home field advantage, and from a pace scenario things may shake out well for BOURBONIZE.

While the aforementioned Bafferts figure tough (and may be one-two in the wagering) they present an interesting problem for Trainer Bob. Namely, both are eager early. They didn’t exactly duel when they met in the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita Feb. 8 but they pushed the agenda early, making for a strong pace. CHITU kept on for second while MIDNIGHT HAWK weakened just a bit to finish third. Toss in a few other speed types, namely Pletcher’s GLOBAL STRIKE and the speedy TANZANITE CAT and you have all the makings of a strong, contested pace.

Now, when you toss in the factor these guys are being asked to go 1 1/8 miles, many of whom are doing it for the first time, which could lead to a race-shape that favors the closers. Pletcher’s main gun here, COMMISSIONER has already won at 1 1/8 miles, at Gulfstream Jan. 3, when he beat the highly regarded Top Billing, who came back to win easily and then run third in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth before being sidelined by injury. The fact COMMISSIONER accomplished that from off the pace bodes well here. He then was unable to make a dent in the aforementioned Fountain of Youth, lagging back and running sixth. But as observers have noted, that day played heavily toward speed. Now they add blinkers so COMMISSIONER may be more prominent early. And with his high-profile connections, the fact he’s faced some of the division big boys and is something of a ‘name’ horse may mean COMMISSIONER will be overbet.

That won’t be an issue for BOURBONIZE. The son of Tiz Wonderful won his first two outings in smart fashion, taking his sprint debut at Churchill Downs Nov. 30 and winning a mile N1X at Oaklawn Jan. 10. It’s no small matter that BOTH wins were accomplished from off the pace, and his Jan. 10 win (he won easily by 4 lengths) looks all the better when you note the horse he beat back into second (Sheltowees Boy) came right back to win. That was enough for trainer Kellyn Gorder to toss this guy into the deeper end of the pool, the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn Feb. 17.

However, the 3yo had a dreadful post for that 1 1/16-mile test (No. 12) and broke poorly to boot, leaving himself a lot to do. To his credit he tried to make a run into the lane but had to steady in traffic and didn’t have clear sailing. The fact he was still able to split the field (ran 6th of 12) was most encouraging.

Here’s a horse who’s shown he’ll keep running and while he was no threat in the Southwest his effort, when you consider the trip and trouble, really wasn’t bad at all. Since then he’s posted three works including a big bullet 1:01.60B at Oaklawn March 16, indicating he’s doing quite well. His connections could have stayed in New Orleans and run in last week’s Risen Star but opted for this instead. And best of all, you get a closer who may get his type of pace, against some nice horses but surely not the division’s elite, at a very, very tempting price (probably in the 8-1 range).

The Bafferts figure prominent from the start and odds are they’ll both hang around for the finish. But both strike this handicapper as milers at this point so a likely brisk pace, pressure and added distance may leave them ripe for the plucking come furlong No. 9.