DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: Washington Park Handicap

I picked MISTER MARTI GRAS (#3) to win the Washington Park Handicap, but would I bet the horse at his 8/5 morning-line? No way. This we know: Mister Marti Gras has accomplished far more than any of his five opponents, and, oh, did I mention, he has just five opponents? We know he stays the 10 furlongs. We know he handles Arlington Polytrack.

He is the most likely winner, but a rare winner (just two victories the last two calendar years) who is spotting his rivals between four and eight pounds. I wouldn’t be bold enough to leave Mister Marti Gras out of any wagering formulations, but neither would I rely too heavily upon him.

GIMMEADRINK (#2) would be a more interesting alternative at long odds, but as it stands he is 7/2 on the morning line, a low number for a horse who might not stay the distance, who is making his stakes debut, and who was racing in $4,000 claimers at Suffolk last October. Gimmeadrink has generally improved since trainer Dale Bennett claimed him at Tampa and particularly improved racing around two turns on Arlington Polytrack, and Bennett said the gelding “ran down” in the June 14 race he won by less than a length. By Gimmeawink and out of a Great Above mare, Gimmeadrink is not bred to go nine furlongs, but if he shakes loose on the lead, he just might.

Will AVANZARE (#4) go with Gimmeadrink? Can he go with Gimmeadrink? He has led in his last two starts, but both were slow-paced turf races, and when he raced one mile three starts ago, Avanzare stalked from mid-pack. He finished in front of Mister Marti Gras in the Arlington Handicap but with a better trip, and unlike Mister Marti Gras, Avanzare is a mystery on Polytrack.

I’d give FORDUBAI (#1) a little fleck of a win chance, but not much more than that, and don’t care for ONLY IN AMERICA (#5) and HATTASH (#6) much at all.