DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: Vigil Stakes

The Vigil (Woodbine, Grade 3, Race 7)

OCCASIONAL VIEW is clearly the one to beat in this Grade 3 sprint for 3-year-olds and up. He is coming off a sharp win in the Grade 3 Commonwealth at Keeneland April 2, and with a bullet five-furlong move in :58 seconds flat at Keeneland May 5 it looks like he’s ready for another big effort. He broke his maiden here in 2010 and he also just missed in the Grade 2 Autumn last year so we know he can handle this track. There is some speed in the field but no guarantee of a hot pace. Nonetheless, he is versatile and Moreno should be able to keep him in touch if they aren’t going that fast up front. Not sure why he didn’t run in 2012 but he won three races last year and he is obviously on top of his game right now.

GO BLUE OR GO HOME figures to be forwardly placed and he may have needed his race in the Grade 3 Shakertown. The winner and second-place finisher came back to finish first and third in the Grade 3 Turf Sprint at Churchill Downs May 2 so it was a good field. Blue won the washed off Grade 3 Highlander here last year so he won’t mind the surface switch.

DELEGATION has been installed as the 5-2 morning-line favorite but he could be vulnerable coming back for his first start since he finished last as the heavy chalk in the Grade 3 Durham Cup here last Oct. He was probably a bit over the top after trying Game On Dude in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic, though. The past five years trainer Mark Casse has a 14 percent strike rate with horses coming back from a layoff of 180 days or more so he should be ready. His best races have been going around two turns so they might be using this to set him up for something longer. The tough part is that he has won sprinting in the past so if he is fully cranked up he could win this.

BEAR NO JOKE closed out his 2013 campaign with a win in the Grade 2 Highlander and may have tipped his hand with he worked a bullet five furlongs in :59 seconds flat May 1. The only time he tried going seven furlongs he came up empty but it was on the turf we won’t hold it against him. He does look better underneath than on top, though.

ULTIMATE DESTINY beat a lot easier coming off the bench last year but later proved his class with a second-place finish in the Grade 3 Seagram Cup. He has a solid record at the distance and could come back firing.

At 7-2 OCCASIONAL VIEW seems like a good win bet. In the exotics we’ll use him on top and below GO BLUE OR GO HOME and DELEGATION. We’ll go deep in the third and fourth spots using BEAR NO JOKE and ULTIMATE DESTINY as the main players.