DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: Travers undercard

Ballerina Stakes by Marcus Hersh

It’s a Grade 1 race without a lot of recently proven Grade 1 quality, but then again, it’s filly-and-mare sprinters, and it’s not like there are Grade 1s all over the calendar in this division.

What to do with 3/1 morning-line favorite MY MISS AURELIA? She’s been off 16 months and had some stretch trouble when third in her comeback race, the July 21 Shine Again. She’s reportedly trained well since then, and the prevailing opinion probably has her improving today. I’m tossing her. Her Shine Again was decent, but it looked a lot more like the My Miss Aurelia of 2013 than the My Miss Aurelia of 2012, who was awesome and would have destroyed this group. It has been a LONG road back for the mare and I really wonder how much she has left to give at this point.

In a vacuum ARTEMIS AGROTERA is, in my mind, the horse for this race, but there are no post positions in a vacuum, and the rail draw for the filly offers two unappealing options: Take back and hope for the best, or leave running and get caught up in what should be a solid to fast pace. My guess is connections opt for the latter, and that Artemis Agrotera is undone by her trip.

BETTER LUCKY did benefit from the trouble Aurelia and Grace Hall had in the Shine Again, but I gave her more credit than some for running down the speed from so far back at the top of the stretch. She doesn’t need to be that far behind and should get another favorable setup, with LA VERDAD, VOODOO TALES, and perhaps Artemis engaging for the lead. Better Lucky is thought of as a turf horse first, a synthetic horse second, and a dirt horse third, but her 5-3-0-1 dirt record suggests we reconsider. She can win.

So can La Verdad, who almost certainly will be ridden more aggressively into the race than was the case in the Honorable Miss, when she ceded the lead from the rail. La Verdad, however, already has raced seven times this year, and she will be fortunate just to come back to her best race of 2014.

I have HOT STONES on top. The 4-year-old filly has come far forward in 2014 and her form took another leap when blinkers were added two starts ago. She nearly ran down loose, easy-pace leader La Verdad three races ago and finished strongly to win the Bed O’Roses, a Grade 3 that at least was comparable in quality to the Ballerina. She looks like a horse best suited to seven furlongs or a mile around one turn, and her third in the two-turn, 9-furlong Shuvee last out – when hung wide both bends – was a strong performance seen in that context. Moreover, Hot Stones was back on the work tab two weeks later and followed up that first work back with a more serious half-mile on Aug. 18. She gets first run on Better Lucky and would be fair value at close to her 6/1 morning line.

Selections

1 – Hot Stones
2 – Better Lucky
3 – La Verdad

King's Bishop Stakes by Kenny Peck

Those who rely heavily on class will be betting against THE BIG BEAST (#7) in the $500,000 King's Bishop, as the son of Yes It's True exits an allowance race and faces several seasoned stakes runners in this Grade 1 sprint.

But those who watch his races realize this is a horse with serious potential, going all the way back to his debut back in March, at Oaklawn. He closed powerfully there following a slow start, just missing on the wire, and though he finished third in his return that was no easy trip. His maiden score was sharp, shaking loose and wiring the field without being asked for his best run, and his latest, an allowance score, was superb. He set quick fractions yet drew off while loose on the lead, posting a 102 Beyer.

That figure gives him strong credibility, and adding to his appeal is the fact that he has the versatility to lead or rate. This is his first try at seven furlongs but there's nothing to suggest the extra furlong will work against him.

At 5/2 on the Morning Line, The Big Beast may not offer fair value -- that's for the individual bettors to decide. I'll try to get a price in the exacta with C. ZEE (#1), who was game in defeat in the Amsterdam, dueling for the lead from the start before yielding to perfect trip closer COUP DE GRACE (#8), the 2-1 ML favorite in the King's Bishop.

Ballston Spa Stakes by Marty McGee

Rusty Arnold has been adamant for almost a year that if Centre Court is not training at a 100-percent level, she will be immediately retired. After the mare had an absolutely brutal trip on Kentucky Derby Day (horrible start, lost a shoe), Arnold regrouped her with the Ballston Spa foremost in mind. There’s little doubt that her best effort is enough to put her in the thick of this, but with her form seeming a little sketchy and Leparoux in a meet-long slump, fans will be skeptical.

Not here. Centre Court, favorably drawn toward the hedge off a terrific series of workouts, is an A-plus gamble, especially with the favorites (Dayatthespa and Filimbi) exiting a so-so restricted race. Centre Court is a proven quantity in these high-end graded turf races, so we’ll be expecting a huge effort off the bench from this classy gal, with the 5-1 M/L making her an extremely alluring play.

The play: Use her in the top slot only in all the horizontals and verticals, with a scatter-shotting of pick-4 Travers enders to include longshots such as Charge Now, V.E. Day, and Mr Speaker.