DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: Selene Stakes

Only four horses entered so it’s not a great betting with no place, show, or triactor wagering being offered.

MY CONQUESTADORY looks like a standout. She won her debut in the Grade 2 Summer running against the boys on the turf here last year and the horse that finished third won the restricted $250,000 Coronation Futurity in his next start. She was good enough to overcome a rough trip to win the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland in her second start so we know she can handle not only top company but also Polytrack. Her best race was in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf where she was up against it leaving from the 14-hole and ran a huge race. Despite a wide trip and moving too early into a fast pace she only lost by four lengths. She also missed finishing second by just over a half length. The pace figures to be slow in the Selene and from what MY CONQUESTADORY showed us in the Juvenile Fillies she can lay close and if she comes back as good as she left she should be able to take control relatively early. She did miss some training due to a pulled muscle in a hip but according to trainer Mark Casse “she is better than ever.” Her five-furlong move in :59.60 seconds May 1 is probably all we need to know and the past five years Casse has a respectable 15 percent strike rate with horses coming back from a layoff of 180 days or more.

Take your pick in the exacta between COOL FAITH and PALADIN BAY. COOL FAITH is coming off a win in a first-level allowance race at Keeneland and the horse she beat is no slouch. Granny’s Mc’s Kitten won a $100,000 stakes race on the turf in her second start at Saratoga last year and after finishing fourth in the Grade 3 Miss Grillo at Belmont she ran in the B.C. Juvenile Fillies Turf where she was overmatched and beat two.

PALADIN BAY has won three of her four starts at the distance and figures to move forward following her sharp second going six furlongs in the $144,000 Star Shoot at Woodbine April 19. All of her races as a 2-year-old were either restricted to Ontario-sired or bred horses or Canadian-breds. She ran against open company in the Star Shoot and the horse that beat her, Zensational Bunny won the Glorious Song in her second start here last year. Zensational Bunny came back with a dull effort following her win in the Star Shoot, though, finishing fifth in the $100,000 Inaugural at Presque Isle Downs.

MY CONQUISTADORY is obviously the horse to beat and we’re going to give the edge to COOL FAITH over PALADIN BAY in the exacta. COOL FAITH might be a slightly-better price and that was a pretty nice filly she beat at Keeneland. She could also improve as a first-time Lasix user.