DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: Seagram Cup
We are leaning towards the Mark Casse-trained SKY CAPTAIN who hasn’t lost in three starts this year and is coming off a sharp win going 10 furlongs over heavily favored Frac Daddy in the Grade 3 Dominion Day. Frac Daddy went into the race undefeated on Polytrack, and he was coming off a romp in the Grade 2 Eclipse where he received a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. Sky Captain shouldn’t mind the cutback in distance and according to DRF’s Formulator, the past five years Husbands has won with 16 percent of his mounts riding for Casse in Graded stakes at Woodbine.
ALPHA BETTOR has been installed as the 8-5 morning-line favorite due to his sharp win going seven furlongs in an allowance race July 6 where he received a 99 Beyer Speed Figure. He has compiled an impressive 8-1-1 record from 14 starts at 1 1/16 miles and will obviously appreciate the added distance. He is a deserving favorite, but according to Formulator, the past five years his trainer Daniel Vella is 0/8 with horses going from a sprint to a route in Graded stakes at Woodbine. Despite the stats he is an obvious threat to win this.
PENDER HARBOUR also has an excellent 4-2-2 record from 9 starts at the distance and after winning the restricted 1 1/16 miles Steady Growth he rallied to finish second behind Alpha Bettor in his latest race. He has banked over $1.5 million, but most of it was earned in restricted races. What he hasn’t accomplished that the top two have: is a win in a Grade stakes. With the short field and the three horses mentioned above appearing to be standouts there won’t be a lot of value offered. We’ll take a close look at exacta prices and if there are reasonable prices with Sky Captain on top of Alpha Bettor, we’ll head in that direction.