DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: Saratoga, August 2
The Vandy bookends, Palace (#1) and Bakken (#8), are two of the key players in this intriguing matchup of top sprinters on the strength of their one-two finish in the True North at Belmont. Palace has been difficult for some bettors to figure, as sometimes he performs as if he’s top-class, and sometimes he doesn’t; meanwhile, Bakken is so well-regarded in the C.Brown stable that they haven’t even bothered getting him through his alw. conditions while taking him right to the top.
In between that pair, there are a handful of other legit contenders, most notably Falling Sky (#2), whose winning race on the turn-back at GP in February was off-the-charts; his latest score suggests George has him ready for a G1, and he and HOF jock could be forcing everyone’s hand with a sharp start from his inside post. We’ll give him the edge in a tough spot.
Of the others, Happy My Way (#5) was terrific on Preakness Day, but what did he beat and why has it taken so long to run him back? Yes, his Beyers are terrific, but that’ll just depress his tote value … taking the layoff to be a negative and going to toss him at our peril.
The play: Let’s use Falling Sky as a single while using him in boxes with #1 and #8.
Test Stakes (Race 9) by Marcus Hersh
A Test, indeed, of handicapping skill. Rail-drawn Princess Violet will be scratched, but that still leaves 11, and the fact SWEET REASON is the morning-line favorite at a tepid 3/1 points out the competitive nature of this year’s premier summer sprint for 3-year-old fillies.
On paper, the race abounds with speed, and my handicapping formed around the idea of a strong early and middle pace. Moreover, much of the speed is drawn on the outside – MISS BEHAVIOUR, RED VELVET, TEA TIME – and there could be a crush of traffic in the first furlong as those horses attempt to cross over to gain position before the turn. SOUTHERN HONEY, drawn in post 5, also will almost certainly be in the lead pack.
The half-mile split could easily be sub-45 seconds, and I want horses who won’t be a part of it. SWEET REASON is the 3/1 morning-line favorite, and while I hate to take a short number in a race this deep, she might be the right one. Granted, her win in the Acorn last out came with a lovely trip, but she got that trip in no small part because of her favorable attributes. The filly is handy and athletic – she can accelerate on a dime – and also seems very responsive to rider requests: When Irad Ortiz asked her to switch off after moving into position behind the lead pack on the far turn in the Acorn, Sweet Reason did exactly that, making a second, decisive run in the homestretch. We know she loves Saratoga – at least in the mud – and seven furlongs could be her ideal distance.
A year ago, Acorn runner-up SWEET WHISKEY would have been part of the pace, but she gradually has learned to rate and rally, an evolution that makes her appealing. Her trainer, Todd Pletcher, just so happens to have one of the fastest horses in the race, Red Velvet, and a fast early tempo should help spread the field and give Sweet Whiskey room to operate on the far turn. She should move significantly earlier than Sweet Reason, and Sweet Whiskey got over the local main track with aplomb romping in her career debut. She was bet heavily her first five starts, and after her Old Hat win at Gulfstream, I thought she might be dominant in one-turn 3-year-old filly stakes, but Sweet Whiskey for whatever reason really struggled late this winter and early this spring. She seems back on the right course again now, and appears to have been working strongly toward this race.
Since FIFTYSHADESOFGOLD set the pace in the Acorn perhaps I’m off base here, but I expect to see come-from-behind tactics today. This filly, who’s big and strong, was going to win the Adirondack from off the pace last summer at Saratoga before nearly being put over the rail in midstretch. I thought she was off her game after showing the way last out at Belmont, and I’d be surprised if connections want any part of an early duel Saturday. I’d have liked her Eight Belles win to have been slightly more decisive, but Fiftyshadesofgold, who has been working very fast, still has upside going into this race.
STREET STORY got a great setup winning the Victory Ride last time, but might get another one here. She just has that one race at a performance level high enough to be taken seriously, which introduces some skepticism. The same can be said of THANK YOU MARYLOU, whose credibility mainly rests on her Any Limit Stakes win over the winter at Gulfstream.
SOUTHERN HONEY has the field’s highest Beyer figure, 99, from her win over older rivals last out in the Grade 3 Winning Colors. I should probably like this filly better than I actually do, but her way of going puts me off. She runs with her head held somewhat high and doesn’t have a pretty way of moving her legs; she somewhat shuffles along, and even looks at times like a route horse in waiting. But she is fast and has easily won three straight, and I suppose she could take another. I won’t be using her as more than a saver in horizontal and vertical bets, however.
The guess is Miss Behaviour, an admirable filly, will struggle to stay the trip, especially if she’s part of a hot pace. TEA TIME might have more stay to her, but was flattered her last two by great trips against middling competition.