DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: Pucker Up Stakes

First thing to note: The weather here turned suddenly autumnal this week, and there has been plenty of rain. The course is going to be somewhere between good and soft Saturday, and it will not play like the firm, fast summer ground to which we’ve become accustomed.

Second thing to note: The two cross-entered horses, MARIA MARIA and KISS MOON, both run in the Pucker Up & not at Kentucky Downs, according to respective trainers Jim DiVito and Dave Vance.

Neither of those two ought to be casually eliminated from win contention in the nine-furlong Pucker Up, which used to be a major prep for the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland, but now just is one of several races nationally leading to that October race.

Fortunately, the supply of talented 3-year-old turf fillies this year is surprisingly deep, and the Pucker Up is filled with potential winners. The two I don’t give more than a random chance of winning: AMELIATHEAVIATOR and ANNULMENT. The former has won only a soft maiden race and simply doesn’t look good enough. The latter eked out a win in the weaker division of the Hatoof Stakes on the Million card here, and did so only through great good fortune. Kiss Moon won the other Hatoof division, and if her connections want the lead in the Pucker Up, they probably get it: The race has no real speed in it, and Kiss Moon is the closest thing to a front-runner. She ran well beating Maria Maria in the Hatoof, and was fouled by disqualified She’s A Little Sassy and moved from fourth to third in her only other grass race, the nine-furlong Regret at Churchill. But while Kiss Moon did get squeezed and between horses, I thought she was fairly well out of gas at that point. Since the Regret was her first grass race she might simply be better than that, but there’s also the chance she doesn’t really want nine furlongs.

AURELIA’S BELLE, the 2/1 morning-line favorite, was placed first in the Regret, and also won over nine furlongs in her most recent start, the Arlington Oaks, a Polytrack race. She merits favoritism, and it’s important to distinguish between Aurelia’s Bell the dirt horse (0-4 wins) and Aurelia’s Belle the turf and synthetic horse (4-4 wins).

Still, Aurelia’s Belle doesn’t stand out. STELLARIS was gaining on her late in the AP Oaks and came back to finish second in the G2 Del Mar Oaks, her turf debut. That was a strange performance: Stellaris drifted way wide coming into the stretch & appeared to be running in place, but she found some deep-stretch turn of foot and squeaked out a runner-up finish to a much-best winner. I had a negative response to the way the filly strode on turf, and if I had to guess, I’d say she’ll prove a synthetic specialist.

SISTAS STROLL also last raced at Del Mar, beating older foes in a first-level allowance at the Pucker Up’s nine-furlong trip. She won authoritatively, galloped out well, and definitely seems suited to the distance, but there remains a quality question to answer. Beyond that, the course she encounters Saturday is likely to bear little resemblance to SoCal grass over which she just won.

Like Sistas Stroll, FINAL REDEMPTION is lightly raced and not exposed, though unlike her she has yet to go beyond one mile, and is coming from the East rather than West Coast. Of the two, I prefer Final Redemption, whose defeat by Miss Frost in a restricted Saratoga stakes was redeemed when Miss Frost came back to win the $100K Riskaverse there by almost five lengths. If the timer is to be believe, Final Redemption got her final quarter-mile in not much over 22 seconds, which, if true, is quicksilver. On pedigree she should stay the nine furlongs, though trainer Graham Motion has been chilly with his shipper to Arlington, going 0-10 wins dating through the 2010 meet.

Maria Maria, the more you care to look, has done little wrong in her grass starts, the three of which are somewhat buried amidst 11 other races. She rallied for third behind stakes-class males Bobby’s Kitten and Global View at Tampa early this year; was a closing fourth in a false-paced N2X allowance against older rivals earlier this Arlington meet; and finished solidly for second behind Kiss Moon in the Hatoof. She is going to be a price and ought to be included at least on the bottom side of exotic bets.

Which brings us to V V GOODNIGHT, who I took on top. This filly clearly was the best horse in her division of the Hatoof. The rider steadied early, was back on his heels almost the entire trip, and lost position with the horse on multiple occasions. Once clear – finally! – she came with the best run in the field and just missed winning. The sire, Midnight Lute, does not shout nine furlongs, but she’s out of a Vice Regent mare, has stamina on the bottom of her pedigree, and has the physical appearance of a horse that can stay this trip and perhaps even farther. In her lone previous nine-furlong try, the Regret, she came home as well as anyone for a close fifth, and my guess is she’s progressed since then. The lack of pace might be an issue – or it might not, if she’s allowed to settle somewhere a little closer to the front and make an earlier run this time.

Selections 1. V V GOODNIGHT 2. FINAL REDEMPTION 3. AURELIA’S BELLE