DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: Pennsylvania Derby
But where is he now? One can’t get too caught up in what connections say about their horses, and it can be foolish to try and read too much into the space between the lines. That said, the vibrations emanating from the California Chrome camp as the dual classic winner makes his first post-Triple Crown start Saturday in the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby definitely feel negative.
He’s travelling cross country to race. Did the $100,000 bonus his owners and trainer pick up for running a Triple Crown-race winner in the Penn Derby play any part in the race choice? Art Sherman, the trainer, has said he wouldn’t have minded getting another work or two into California Chrome. He talked about the horse figuring out what was being asked of him in a recent workout done between races at Los Alamitos, rather than during morning training. Why, one is tempted to wonder, had it taken that long for the light bulb to go back on. He has the rail, and it seems a tricky draw with BAYERN to his outside. Does he go, or does Victor Espinoza try to work out a tracking trip. The horse is going to be fresh; Espinoza might not have much choice. My guess is California Chrome will open flat on the board. It’s a Saturday, but this is a quiet fall racing Saturday, and the bulk of national betting will come from seasoned simulcast players, not callow fans of the horse himself. California Chrome’s price will drift down through the wagering, but he probably still will go off as a long-enough priced favorite that his backers will crow about getting such a price on a Derby-Preakness winner.
I’m certainly against him here, and I don’t think it’s out of the question California Chrome can be run out of the trifecta. I’m also against Bayern. He ran fast in the Woody Stephens, but that race has not aged well. The Haskell has a way of flattering sharp milers that take to the Monmouth surface: All the other evidence, save perhaps the Woody Stephens, suggests Bayern is not as good as the Haskell looked.
Those are the first and second choices in the race. I think we might be getting somewhere.
I don’t want any part of NOBLE MOON, and very little of C J’S AWESOME. The latter is improved with blinkers off, but he got a comfortable lead going 10 furlongs last out at Saratoga. This will be a different kind of race, and I doubt he’ll prove versatile. CLASSIC GIACANROLL has little chance to win the race but could run third or fourth. He really seems to thrive on the Parx surface. He was clearly in the bridle and loaded for much of the Smarty Jones trip, and came with the sharpest move I’ve seen him make.
CANDY BOY is a grand-looking animal who has long displayed enough talent that a lot of people regularly think he’s going to be better than he is. When do we drop the ‘potential’ label and decide he is who he is? He did show in West Virginia that he can ship and run his race, he does stay the nine furlongs, and I think he’ll deliver a representative effort. Gotta use him.
We come to TAPITURE and PROTONICO. The former won the West Virginia Derby by a nose, the latter the Smarty Jones by a half-length. Both were far, far more superior on those races than the bare margin of victory. Both had traffic in the stretch and by rights should have been beaten, but they were so much better than the competition that they won anyway.
Tapiture remains suspect at the nine furlongs, but I think there’s a decent chance he has a better chance to really get the trip now than he did in the spring. No one knows the 3-year-old stakes levels like trainer Steve Asmussen, who has run millions of dollars out of good but not great sophomores by hitting the right spots. Asmussen and Winchell T’breds could have run this horse for good money at Louisiana Downs, at Remington, at Indiana, and they had to know this spot was going to be tougher. That they went for the million bucks says to me that Tapiture – improved last out in West Virginia – can take another step forward.
But I still took Protonico on top. His price will be better than Tapiture’s, and to these eyes he was every bit as impressive winning the Smarty Jones. When finally clear he ate up the ground with giant strides and hit the wire looking for more. He has a great nine-furlong pedigree and does not appear to be fully exposed: Just three starts with Pletcher, just two starts around two turns, and only one race with blinkers added. When California Chrome was winning two-thirds of the Triple Crown, almost no one had heard of Protonico. His name might well get mentioned quite a bit early Saturday evening at Parx.
Selections
1. Protonico
2. Tapiture
3. Candy Boy