DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: October 6, 2013

Bourbon Stakes by Michael Hammersly (Keeneland Race 7, 4:15 ET)

The money here figures to gravitate to Todd Pletcher’s talented Bashart, a smart winner of his last two starts, both on turf at SAR, including a victory in the Grade 2 With Anticipation. His speed figures to have the son of top turf sire War Front prominent from the start. Oh, and both those wins came at this same distance.

Yet good as Bashart looks, there is other speed so if he has designs on a theft that could be a dicey proposition. And one thing you won’t like is the likely short price.

That shouldn’t be an issue with Medal Count from the Dale Romans barn. Dynaformer isn’t really one to get precocious youngsters (though remember his son Barbaro was dynamite as a 2-year-old). This colt, who cost $360,000 at auction, made his debut routing on dirt at ELP. Boxed in while sitting behind the pace, he didn’t appear to be going anywhere. And then, wham! He found a seam, surged to the lead in midstretch and powered away, winning in a romp by 6 1/4 lengths.

Yes, the Beyer didn’t come back all the strong (50) but this more a case of visual appeal as opposed to raw numbers. And it was just his debut so he can certainly leap forward on the Beyer scale.

But best of all, THIS is the surface he figures to want. Over the years Dynaformer has been one of the game’s elite turf sires so the footing should be right up this guy’s alley. Oh, and two real strong recent works (bullet :59.80B at CD Sept. 22, sharp 1:00.60B here Sept. 28) say he’s doing well.

Another horse of interest is Boji Moon. Now you could have been excused for viewing him suspiciously when he showed up in the KD Turf Sept. 4 with a couple laughers over Iowa-breds on dirt at PRM in his pocket. Well, he showed he’s not just some Iowa pipedream or dirt horse. Off those two monster wins (by 11 3/4 lengths, 12 1/2 lengths) he shipped, faced open foes and turf for the first time and flourished, easily winning at KD. In fact, his Beyer actually went up. He’s obviously the real deal.

School on a Hill is an interesting potential exotics player as the colt won his debut smartly on turf at AP at this trip. That was enough to earn him a shot at the Grade 2 Summer at WO Sept. 14; he was even favored. Alas, that didn’t go well but he’s worked well since and the fact Catalano opted to wheel him back in a tough spot like this says he hasn’t given up on this guy, so you probably shouldn’t either.- Michael Hammersly

Spinster Stakes by Michael Hammersly (Keeneland Race 8, 4:49 ET)

If you have any questions about how this year’s crop of 3-year-old fillies ranks against elders, just take a look at a couple weeks ago. Princess of Sylmar looked smashing beating – fairly easily, mind you – two-time champion elder Royal Delta. Later that day Beholder, likely the game’s second best 3-year-old filly, led top elders out west on a merry chase. Before those events it might have been more difficult to embrace Emollient as she faces elders for the first time here, but the exploits of her peers and her return to this track make it easier to fall into her corner.

She does come off a dullish turf try (eighth in the Grade 1 Garden City), which came after she won the Grade 1 American Oaks July 13. However, she posted a nice work Sept. 29 to indicate there are no ill effects from that poor outing and Smith comes in to ride her.

But the best thing going for her may be the footing. The only other time she stepped on synthetic ground it came here in the Grade 1 Ashland April 6, and well, she was like a pig in slop. She just bounced over the surface, going right out to a clear lead and bounding away to win in a romp. Sure, these gals figure tougher but obviously she relished the footing. And while she led all the way that day note she’s by no means a need-the-lead type – when she broke her maiden at BEL last September, when she won in GP slop in February and when she won the aforementioned American Oaks she showed tactical speed, yes, but actually came from just off the pace. That tractability can serve her well here as there is some other speed signed up.

From an exotics standpoint Byrama is another who just loves the footing. She’s run so well on it that they even tried her against the West’s top males in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic. This is surely a better situation and she big over this track in the spring when second in the Grade 1 Madison. She doesn’t have to come from miles out of it, either.

Summer Applause is a classy filly who has handled synthetic and a sharp stakes win at MTH Aug. 25 says she comes here doing well. A potential price play for the exotics comes in the form of Hard Not to Like. The bulk of her work has come on turf, on which she’s run well, but note a good second over this track in the 2012 Ashland. - Michael Hammersly

Pilgrim Stakes by Mike Beer (Belmont Race 9, 5:13 ET)

The first of two Win and You’re In events for the Breeders’ Cup juvenile turf races to be contested at Belmont Sunday is the Pilgrim, for 2yo’s going 1 1/16 miles on the inner turf. Trainer Chad Brown saddles the two morning line favorites, SHADOW BANKING (#4, 5/2) and BOBBY’S KITTEN (#5, 3/1). Shadow Banking is a full brother to the multiple graded stakes placed 3yo Stormy Len (who is scheduled to run in the Grade 1 Jamaica on Saturday afternoon), and he made a very impressive debut here last month. After getting away last vs. only four other runners, Shadow Banking was content to trail early before sweeping around horses four-wide through the turn, and he was ridden out through the stretch to a much-the-best win. It will be no surprise if he were able to win a graded stakes race in his second start, but it is the other Brown trainee who interests me more, and assuming Bobby’s Kitten is in fact sent off at the better price, he’s the horse I’m betting.

Bobby’s Kitten ran twice at Saratoga, and flashed plenty of potential up there. He was a very unlucky loser of his debut after a tough trip, and while his maiden win on the Travers undercard returned a relatively modest Beyer of 74, I thought he ran much better than that; here are my notes for his effort, via Formulator:

left w/speed but had to duel his way to lead on fast pace, went clear b/s then took on strong challenge thru2T, held that & clear again, strong effort

The other major player in the race also has a connection to Chad Brown. DUE DILIGENCE (#9, 7/2) made a highly impressive debut sprinting on turf for Brown upstate, dueling his way to the lead and then airing through the stretch. He was privately purchased by the powerful Coolmore connections after that race, and will make his second career start for Todd Pletcher. The question with Due Diligence surrounds his distance capabilities. He is a full brother to the talented Console, who has impressed in career while sprinting, but failed miserably the only time he was stretched out in distance. If you believe that distance is no issue for Due Diligence, then he is a major player in here; but I have my concerns.

The price horse that interests me most in the Pilgrim is BLUE PIGEON (#7, 12/1) who steps way up in class after defeating NY-breds in his debut at Saratoga. He got a very good trip in that race, saving ground away from a strong pace, but Blue Pigeon raced very handily throughout, and was a convincing winner. He’ll need to do better vs. these horses, but I think he’s eligible to do so, and can get a piece.

Miss Grillo Stakes by Mike Beer (Belmont Race 10, 5:45 ET)

The Miss Grillo is a Win & You’re In race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, and much like the Pilgrim, features a pair of morning line favorites trained by Chad Brown. GRANNY MC’S KITTEN (#9, 3/1) is the horse to beat, following a very convincing win to break her maiden in the PG Johnson stakes at Saratoga. She did get a perfect trip en route to that win, but this full sister to Kitten’s Dumplings (a multiple graded stakes winner on turf, who has earned over $450k so far in her career), was clearly better than those horses, and the tactical speed she found in that race will suit her well going forward. To me she is clearly the horse to beat in here.

Brown’s other entrant is more of a wild card in this race, and as such, would be tough to take too short of a price on. TESTA ROSSI (#8, 7/2) has won 3-of-5 career starts in France over shorter distances, and she did defeat males twice, but she has raced mostly at smaller tracks over there. It would hardly be surprising if she turns out to be another talented import who found her way to this trainer, but I’ll take a wait-and-see approach.

The horse I’m most interested in betting here is DANCING HOUSE (#1A, 5/1), who will make her turf debut in the Miss Grillo for Kiaran McLaughlin. I have been impressed with Dancing House’s professionalism to begin her career, and switching to grass figures to give her a chance to move up, as her dam Tout Charmant won multiple Grade 1’s on grass, and made over $1.6 million on that surface in her very good career. Assuming she is trading at around her morning line odds at post time, I’ll take a chance with her in the Miss Grillo.

I also thought that Christophe Clement’s BIKINI BEAUTY (#5, 5/1) was a player after a stylish debut win (one of many on grass for Clement this year) at Saratoga. So far, the horses to have run back have failed to flatter that race, but Bikini Beauty flashed some real ability in there, and is well-bred on the dam side to be this kind of horse.