DRF Plus Graded Stakes Analysis: October 5, 2013

TCA Stakes, Keeneland (Race 6, 3:45 ET, Saturday)

By Mary Rampellini

GROUPIE DOLL has the look of an odds-on favorite in the Grade 2, $200,000 Thoroughbred Club of America at Keeneland on Saturday. The six-furlong race for fillies and mares is to be her steppingstone to the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, a race she won by more than four lengths last year en route to being voted champion female sprinter. Her path there ran through the 2012 TCA, which she dominated one start after winning the Grade 2 Presque Isle Downs Masters. GROUPIE DOLL repeated in the Masters last month in an identical lead-in to the TCA, but there is a difference to her campaign this year. She did not start her season until Aug. 10, in the Grade 3 Gardenia, a one-mile race at Ellis Park in which she encountered trouble and finished third at 1-5. The start at two turns no doubt was an important stamina building block for this season, and it may have also served the purpose of enhancing her rateability. GROUPIE DOLL will be shortening up a tad in distance from six and a half furlongs Saturday, but suspect she could be closer to the pace than she was in the Masters as she was cutting back from a mile for that race. The concerns are some regression off a strong race in her second start back, and the chance a rival like GYPSY ROBIN gets loose on the front end. Still, GROUPIE DOLL is the undisputed class of the field and strictly the one to beat.

GYPSY ROBIN is dangerous. She has a chance to steal away depending on how things fall at the break. She also has reason to move forward in her second start since July, as well as over a track on which she is 3-for-3. And while GYPSY ROBIN won a restricted stakes in her most recent start, she is a two-time Grade 2 winner, with one of those victories coming last fall at Keeneland. In addition, GYPSY ROBIN is the second-leading earner in this field behind GROUPIE DOLL. She indicated her sharpness the other morning, when she worked a half-mile in a bullet 46.80 seconds at Betfair Hollywood Park. Based on that drill and the speed she has shown in her races, the Southern California shipper appears to be the one to catch. A candidate to complete the exacta led by GROUPIE DOLL.

JUDY THE BEAUTY is at home on Keeneland’s main track, where she is 2-for-2 and where she breezed five furlongs in a bullet 58.80 seconds in her final prep for the TCA. She certainly has the speed to hold her position from the rail, but a concern is that she has not gotten the break in her two most recent starts. In addition, the field’s two quickest members are situated to her immediate outside. It’s a bit of trick, perhaps, but she has run well from the fence in the past, is on a surface over which she has thrived, and gets the services of a top rider in Velazquez. JUDY THE BEAUTY also exits the Masters, and finished a credible third to GROUPIE DOLL. As for class, she is a stakes winner who has placed in three Grade 1 races, her most recent showing a second-place finish in the Princess Rooney at Calder. JUDY THE BEAUTY was the favorite in that race, and would not be a surprise here, perhaps getting a stalking trip behind a few of these. She’s worth a win-saver but otherwise seems best used underneath GROUPIE DOLL.

PURE HOT, the $4,000 claim turned runner-up to GROUPIE DOLL in the Masters, moves closer to her comfort zone on the cutback from six and a half furlongs to six panels. She also remains racing over a synthetic track, and her stock spiked when she moved to such a surface earlier this year at Presque Isle. PURE HOT needs to duplicate her Masters effort to erase the lingering class questions surrounding runner who earlier this year was the cause of a claiming war that began at the $4,000 level and ended at the $10,000 level. From a pace standpoint, PURELY HOT has appeal as one who could get an ideal tracking trip behind GYPSY ROBIN. But there’s also the concern she could find herself pressed by GYPSY ROBIN, who breaks to her immediate outside.

LIVI MAKENZIE became a stakes winner in the $100,000 Saylorville at Prairie Meadows in June. She has run once since, in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss at Saratoga, a July 29 race in which she finished sixth to the win-streaking Dance to Bristol. After their meeting, Dance to Bristol accounted for the Grade 1 Ballerina at Saratoga, with a Beyer Speed Figure of 94. As for LIVI MAKENZIE, she has been freshened, and note she has won off the bench in the past, back in January at Oaklawn. One of her assets is her natural speed and if she runs fresh she could press a pair of quick runners who will break to her inside, GYPSY ROBIN and PURELY HOT. And if LIVI MAKENZIE forces some serious fractions, it would seem just sweeten the pot for GROUPIE DOLL, whose rider, Rajiv Maragh, could have an ideal view of the proceedings from the widest post.

TANGLEWOOD TALE will be possibly the longest shot in the TCA despite the fact that she has won her last three starts. She is a former claimer moving back into stakes competition for the first time in a while, and she will be making her first-ever start on a synthetic surface. The fact that her confidence is soaring is a plus, while her running style is another benefit as she is one who can stalk and pounce. Still, TANGLEWOOD TALE’s lack of experience over a synthetic track and the class hike she takes makes others more appealing.

The best approach with the TCA would seem to key GROUPIE DOLL, and underneath use GYPSY ROBIN, JUDY THE BEAUTY and perhaps PURELY HOT.

First Lady, Keeneland (Race 7, 4:20 ET, Saturday)

By Marcus Hersh

There are 8 in the Grade 1 First Lady, and the only one of them I know don’t like is the 9-5 favorite, DAYATTHESPA. Dayatthespa has been a cut below the best in here since she was gifted an easy lead last fall in the QEII, and there will be no such pace edge in a field with plenty of front-running types. Yes, Keeneland appears to be Dayatthespa’s favorite course, but I’m guessing it won’t matter.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see any other horse in the race win, and that includes outsider WINDING WAY, who seems unlikely to me to make it up to her 30-1 morning-line odds. Winding Way is edging back to some exciting form from last summer, has turf in her pedigree, and was shipped cross-country by a capable outfit despite having two races in her backyard she might have contested this weekend.
But given the fact she’s a stretchout sprinter with some pace, Winding Way figures to end up on or near the pace with DAISY DEVINE and Dayatthespa. Daisy Devine, unraced since June, might be the most attractive of the pace players, as she likes the KEE course at least as much as Dayatthespa, and nearly won this race last fall coming back from an even longer layoff.
HUNGRY ISLAND and MIZ IDA figure to get decent setups, both have run well on the course, and either could contend. Miz Ida chased speed that never came back, Laughing, over a biased Saratoga course last out, and beat Daisy Devine in the spring. I’d slightly favor her, and her longer odds, over Hungry Island, who I think has hit a plateau, and might have shown her best when second last out in the Noble Damsel.
On to the Euros, but I know this: Both are 3-year-olds, and the Grade 1 QE II is next weekend. It’s possible in the case of both SAY and AMAZONAS that this week’s race is only a setup for next weekend’s. AMAZONAS has raced only once at 3, but last August came within a half-length of Sky Lantern, who is one of the best fillies in Europe. Say has a close finish behind Dank, whom we saw dominate the Beverly D. this summer.
And finally, the horse I’d bet to win if you kept me to a single selection – BETTER LUCKY. What we’ve seen three times in a row is improvement from Better Lucky in the second start of her form cycle. Last fall, she went evenly in the QE II and six weeks later beat excellent Tiz Flirtatious in the G1 Matriarch. In April, she was fourth in the Jenny Wiley, her 2013 debut, but used that as a springboard to a close second in the G1 Just A Game. Better Lucky had a quiet summer, and, with this richer G1 sitting three weeks away, it should have come as no surprise that she ran a notch or two below her best as the odds-on favorite in the Noble Damsel. Her odds are going up, and Better Lucky is going forward – she’s worth a long look in a very, very tough race.

Jamaica Handicap, Belmont (Race 8, 4:40 ET, Saturday)

By Mike Beer

Hard to imagine that this years running of the Grade 1 Jamaica could have come up any better, with just about every top 3yo turfer scheduled to show up. With a field as deep at this there are almost too many ways to go, which means it may ultimately just come down to trips; and in that case, from a wagering perspective, let price be your guide.

On the positive side, as far as evaluating the respective chances of these horses, at least there have been a few races already this year where they have run against each other, and taking some of those races apart may help your decision making.

Let’s begin with the July 13th Virginia Derby, won by WAR DANCER (#2, 4/1), with JACK MILTON (#5, 6/1) finishing 3rd. Run over 1 ¼ miles, that race also featured a strong field and while War Dancer was a thoroughly deserving winner, it did seem when all was said and done that Jack Milton emerged from that race an unlucky loser; caught in traffic at a crucial point after an inside trip, Jack Milton was able to alter clear late and finished very well to just come up short.

Subsequent to that race, War Dancer took a swing at the Travers, and while that wasn’t likely to work out, and didn’t, it shouldn’t be held against him. Jack Milton, meanwhile, went to Arlington to try the Grade 1 Secretariat, where he met up with ADMIRAL KITTEN (#1, 7/2) and STORMY LEN (#7, 8/1). Admiral Kitten emerged the winner of that race, with Stormy Len and Jack Milton filling out the top three, both with legit excuses. No knocks on the winner there, as he has held good form for top connections all year, but it did feel like he took advantage just a bit with a clean run into a strong pace. Stormy Len, meanwhile, went early in there to duel the once-hot Rydilluc into defeat and paid the price late, while settling for a very, very good second place finish. Jack Milton had excuses of his own in there, and was a solid 3rd (trip notes for that effort via Formulator):

didn’t break & got squeezed back early, raced wide thru 1T & up b/s then chased pace from far turn, stayed gamely

That kind of trip and effort has become something of a theme for Jack Milton throughout the summer, but going further back toward the beginning of the year he got an absolutely perfect trip to win the Transylvania Stakes over a fast closing UP WITH THE BIRDS (#11, 8/1). To me Jack Milton is a major player in the Jamaica, as he could have won any of his last three races with a different trip.

Staying with the Secretariat horses for a minute, I have a feeling that Stormy Len may be the best of this group, at least right now, and quite possibly going forward. Not only was he likely best in the Secretariat, but he just missed in the American Derby prior to that (again finishing behind Admiral Kitten) while racing wide behind a slow pace, and then took on a tough task shipping to Canada to try older horses over 1 ½ miles. He’s a big player in here, with the major question being – will the busy summer campaign catch up to him at some point?

Up With the Birds went back to Canada after his strong Transylvania effort behind Jack Milton, and while he came up short of attaining his major goal in the Queen’s Plate, he was badly compromised by the pace of that race, and he dominated the $500k Breeders Stakes back on grass. He is another horse with a major shot at the Jamaica, and represents value if going off at anything like his ML of 8/1 - although he didn’t draw well on the outside, and will have to work out a trip.

Back toward the inside, BALANCE THE BOOKS (#4, 5/1) and MILLS (#3, 20/1) haven’t contested the major summer races for this division, but both are very talented and shouldn’t be discounted. Balance the Books obviously has the credentials and the connections to be seriously checked out in here, as heading into this year he felt like the clear leader of this division based on his 2yo campaign. He was rather unwisely, as it turned out, given a chance to be a Derby horse which compromised the first part of the year for him; but once sent back to turf, Balance the Books quickly showed that he can still run, and, in fact, has improved. He did get the best of the trips when defeating Mills in the Stroll Stakes at Saratoga last time, but he still won it quite convincingly and is difficult to simply dismiss – though there is a chance he gets over bet in here, which would make the decision a bit easier.

Mills doesn’t have the credentials of some of the others in here, but he has flashed plenty of talent through five starts, and is going to be a huge price, which makes him interesting.

In a race like this, you have to look for value, and if the morning line is on point (it usually is in NY, as Eric Donovan is among the best in that business, in my opinion) then Stormy Len and Up With the Brids are both very inviting prices at 8/1. I want to like Jack Milton as my key, and 6/1 feels like a fair price on him, but I wouldn’t take less. And I will use a little of Mills, as well, hoping he stacks up with this tough group.

Breeders' Futurity, Keeneland (Race 8, 4:49 ET, Saturday)

By Marty McGee

Has there been any North American trainer hotter than Wayne Catalano in recent weeks? Um, no, and that’s why Solitary Ranger (#6), one of his starters in this ridiculously wide-open renewal of the Breeders’ Futurity, deserves as much consideration as any of them. Fresh off the bench, the colt was good enough to win the Arlington-Washington Futurity with style, and despite all the speed in this 14-horse field, there’s reason to believe he’s been trained so that he’ll be able to take some rating and resist what figures to be a swift pace. He also stands to benefit from that last race and could make the needed Beyer leap to seriously contend.

Of course, there are all kinds of other viable options in a race where the favorite might be as high as 5-1, assuming 14 start; hitting any of the tricks should be lucrative indeed. The others with merit, some of them with fat morning lines, include Kendall’s Boy (#2), who chased the much-heralded Havana; the “other” Catalano, School On a Hill (#3), who gets first Lasix as a beaten last-out stakes fave; Conquest Titan (#9), from the ever-dangerous Casse stable of 2-year-olds; We Miss Artie (#12), a turf/synth-bred for Ramsey and Pletcher; and Tiznowforamerica (#14), who was a Saratoga “good thing” and has the pedigree to not only keep getting better but also to move up on the Poly.

The bet: 6 in key spots in tri’s and supers with 2, 3, 9, 12, 14.

Frizette Stakes, Belmont (Race 9, 5:14 ET, Saturday)

By Mike Beer

Through two starts so far, SWEET REASON (#1, 8/5) has appeared to be something special. In each of those races upstate, Sweet Reason found herself back off the pace in the early going, and both times she came with a huge run to leave her competition reeling in the stretch. Maybe a little skepticism was in order after her debut, big run or not, as it came in a race scheduled for turf but washed off onto a sloppy, sealed main track; but the way she backed that race up in the Grade 1 Spinaway, with an impressive open lengths win which earned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure, should have erased any doubts as to her quality. The only questions remaining for Sweet Reason now are 1) is she simply a wet track freak who won’t reproduce those races over fast dirt?; and 2) how far does she want to go? The Frizette should go a long way toward answering those questions. For those wanting an alternative to the favorite, I would recommend looking at Todd Pletcher’s STOPCHARGINGMARIA (#4, 3/1), who was well behind Sweet Reason in the Spinaway, but exits that race as a horse eligible to make things much closer. In that race, Stopchargingmaria wound up down inside behind horses as Sweet Reason was sweeping by to the lead, and she finished very gamely once clear in the stretch, though having no chance to catch. I think things may be closer than many people think between these two horses, and will give Stopcharingmaria a chance to turn the tables on the likely heavy favorite.

Of the others, ARTEMIS AGROTERA (#2, 6/1) was a highly impressive debut winner at 2/5 vs. NY Breds upstate, and this can be considered very confident placing by her connections, but I would prefer that she had another race after that debut run, and it’s not like there isn’t any other speed in here.

TEA TIME (#3, 6/1) earned a competitive figure when blitzing maidens on the front end here a couple of weeks ago, but that was over a track carrying inside speed, and she’ll be stretching out here in a tough spot.

Shadwell Turf Mile, Keeneland (Race 9, 5:30 ET, Saturday)

By Marcus Hersh

I just went down this road three weeks ago with the Woodbine Mile, in which I thought Trade Storm might give WISE DAN a race – and was proven utterly wrong. Wise Dan set a course record for one mile while appearing to fall far, far short of maximum exertion. I love Wise Dan. Wise Dan is one of the best horses in recent years. Yet I come to tell you – blasphemy again -- that Wise Dan does not absolutely have to win the Shadwell Turf Mile.

That thought has nothing to do with a relatively quick turnaround after Woodbine: Like I said, he won tat Woodbine in a gallop, and this is a powerful, mature horse that clearly takes his racing well. But I think that in WINNING PRIZE & to a lesser extent SILVER MAX, Wise Dan is facing (apologies to Za Approval) his best competition this year, and he must do so from a tricky post position.

Wise Dan breaks from post 10, and horses drawn 8 and wider have won just 7-149 one-mile grass races on the Keeneland course since 2010. His start will be of great importance: Breaking a half-step slow, breaking outward a little, any minor early misstep means Wise Dan and John Velazquez might be dictated to, rather than doing the dictating.

The problem, if you were trying to beat Wise Dan, is that the two best-looking alternatives, Winning Prize and Silver Max, could cancel each other out. Silver Max does by far his best work on the lead, and Winning Prize cut out quick splits when impressively winning his North American debut over subsequent G3 turf-sprint stakes winner Chips All In on Aug. 22 at Del Mar. Winning Prize, an Argentine import, could be the real thing, and he might be patient enough to rate just behind Silver Max, saving ground while Wise Dan loses it.

Wise Dan’s stable-mate, Turallure, has no chance, in my opinion, nor do Handsome Mike and Coalport, but I could see fooling around – at least ‘under’ in exotics’ – with all the others. SKYRING is much better than his last, and horses running off the Calumet training track for trainer Jose Fernandez were live at Arlington. HOGY has been getting better and better, and at age 4 I wouldn’t pretend to know where his ceiling is. SUMMER FRONT might be a cut below, but he is 6-5-0-1 at one mile, and the 3rd came with trouble against multiple G1 winner Big Blue Kitten. WILLCOX INN turns back to what might be his best distance and was second in this race last year.

Am I recommending a big swing against the reigning Horse of the Year? I am not. Nor will I be anything but pleased if Wise Dan wins. But even a super-horse will eventually run into circumstances he can’t overcome, and the Shadwell might not be the walk in the park most anticipate.

Champagne Stakes, Belmont (Race 10, 5:46 ET, Saturday)

By Mike Beer

There is a lot of good racing around the country this weekend, with no less than 15 Win-and-You’re-In events for the Breeders’ Cup scheduled; an expected appearance by reigning Horse of the Year Wise Dan in the Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland; and a stellar edition of the Arc de Triomphe running on Sunday. Even with all that, there may not be a more fascinating race on the schedule than the 142nd Champagne Stakes, which goes as race 10 at Belmont on Saturday. The conversation should, and here it will, begin with D. Wayne’s Hopeful winner STRONG MANDATE (#7, 5/2), who has come out of nowhere to win his last two starts by a combined 14+ lengths, and stamp himself as the leader of the juvenile division as we head into the fall. After going off at 16/1 and then 7/1 odds in those smashing wins upstate, Strong Mandate rates to get much more respect in the Champagne, and to me he is clearly the horse to beat. Not only was he very strong in winning those races, but he has the kind of tractable speed which will allow him to get any kind of trip in this race, and pedigree-wise he is supposed the appreciate more distance (by multiple BC Classic winner Tiznow, his dam, Clear Mandate, was a multiple Grade 1 winner routing on dirt).

He’s a really good horse, but all of the buzz around the Champagne this year is coming off of a pair of highly impressive debut winners upstate. First, HAVANA (#3, 7/2) was unveiled by Todd Pletcher on August 23rd. After zipping a furlong in an amazing 9.60 seconds at the Barretts sale in March, Havana was purchased for $575k, and he did not disappoint anyone who backed him down to 2/5 odds in his debut. As expected, he flashed high speed, was able to turn away a challenge from an obviously cranked-up Tom Amoss firster named Kendall’s Boy, and went on to score by just under three lengths in a final time that was just 0.13 seconds off the track record. Havana earned the top Beyer Speed Figure for any two-year-old this year for that race, a 102. There is very little to doubt about Havana’s natural ability; the question is, how far will he ultimately want to go, and will he be able to stretch out from 5 ½ - to -8 furlongs vs. a horse like Strong Mandate in a Grade 1 race. To me it’s a very tall order, and I won’t bet on it, but I won’t be surprised if he does it.

The other horse who generated much excitement at Saratoga is Shug’s HONOR CODE (#5, 3/1). There’s no need to recap his debut, which apparently everyone saw, but to say that he made up an acre of ground in there would only be a slight exaggeration. It came over a sloppy, sealed track, but you don’t get the feeling that the surface helped him that much (you never know, though), and it’s unlikely that he can spot these horses any kind of head start and still be expected to win, but he was so green early on in there that with the experience he may not be completely outrun early this time. He’ll have to keep himself in range though; and because of his reputation out of that debut, I’ll expect him to be an underlay in this race, and I’ll be against him.

I’ll instead use another horse with Strong Mandate, and that is GRAND ARRIVAL (#8, 8/1). Grand Arrival broke his maiden a couple of races prior to Honor Code’s coming out party, and he did it in a time that was a full second slower, but he showed something in that race, and because he almost has to get lost in the wagering behind the big three horses in the Champagne, he is an interesting horse to use. He did not get a good trip in his debut, and all things considered ran quite well that day in what was one of the faster 2yo maiden races run at the meet; and he took a big step forward in start #2. He’ll obviously have to go forward once again vs. this crew, but I can’t bet either Havana or Honor Code in this race, and considering the likely price discrepancy, I’ll give Grand Arrival a chance.

Santa Anita Sprint Championship, Santa Anita (Race 9, 8:00 ET, Saturday)

By Michael Hammersly

Distinctiv Passion can flat sizzle. Declassify has only been behind a horse once at a margin call in his first two starts. Trinniberg is last year’s sprint champion who has major-league speed. Roman Threat pressed a :21 flat first quarter here in May 2012, and Goldencents can, well….uh-oh.

This race brings together some of the quickest horses on the grounds, including Goldencents, who ran second in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby at DMR July 28 and second in the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien there Aug. 25. The one thing Goldencents has going for him is that while he’s a naturally fast horse he’s not a need-the-lead type, and that trait could prove critical to success here when the early splits figure to be fast and contested. After all, when Goldencent won the Grade 3 Sham and Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby here in the winter/spring he PRESSED the pace but was able to take over late. He wasn’t on the lead. His superb second in the Bing Crosby saw him sit fifth early before finishing well to be beaten just a head by today’s foe Points Offthebench. In the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien he pressed a hot early pace and maybe moved too soon in that 7-furlong race, surging into hot splits to take the lead leaving him just not quite strong enough in the final furlong to fend off winner Fed Biz.

The good news, though, is that race was at 7 furlongs; he cuts back a furlong here which has to help. Also, there was no need for such an early move, so that while rider Pat Valenzuela made that push to take early control it looked good but left Goldencents just short enough on fuel to cost him.

Well, today’s game is a furlong shorter and new rider Bejarano is likely a bit more patient than P. Val, meaning Goldencents can use his natural speed to sit close early while Distinctiv Passion and a few others go at it hot and heavy early. Then Bejarano can hit the gas as this guy has proven stamina (remember, those wins in the Sham and SA Derby were at 1 1/8 miles so he won’t be hailing a cab come furlong No. 6).

Also, you have to like that big bullet 6f move here Sept. 27 (1:11.40) as it shows he’s feeling good.

As far as exotics go, Distinctiv Passion may be the speed of the speed. So, if he’s quickest, maybe the other speed types chase and give way as they’re not used to chasing someone else. It may mean ‘Passion can actually be clear turning for home. Of course, Goldencents doesn’t figure to be too far away so he can still flourish but ‘Passion may well hold firm.

Points Offthebench beat Goldencents in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby and is very similar to Goldencents in that he’s got ample tactical speed but isn’t a need-the-lead type. There’s no way to knock this guy as he has five wins and a second in his last six starts. He and Goldencents figure to be close to one another from the paddock all the way to where they get unsaddled.